31781 Memphis Loop · Loxley, AL 36527

$339,999

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,038 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 118 Days on market

Built 2022 9,540 sqft lot $167/sqft · at area comps Est $356k · at est. $58/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.2/30.0
• ARV discount +9.5/15.0
• Rent growth +4.1/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful Gold Fortified Ryder floor plan on a corner lot in Stonebridge, offering 4 bedrooms, 2 baths, and a bright, open layout designed for easy living. The fenced backyard and covered patio create a perfect space for relaxing or entertaining. Residents enjoy exceptional neighborhood amenities—multiple pools, playgrounds, sports courts, sidewalks, and scenic walking trails. Convenient Spanish Fort location with quick access to Hwy 31 and I-10, plus close proximity to schools, shopping, and dining. Buyer to verify all information during due diligence.

Key facts

• Clubhouse
• Playgrounds
• Sports courts

Tags

• FULLY FENCED IN BACKYARD
• RESORT-STYLE AMENITIES
• MULTIPLE POOLS
• CLUBHOUSE
• PLAYGROUNDS
• SPORTS COURTS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $340k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-131 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $317k (6.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $247k (27.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $247k (27.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 4.1% in Loxley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#95 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A, employment B; Watch: schools D, crime D, amenities F.
• Baldwin County (rural): math 33% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #18 of 129 in AL (top 14%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.5%/yr); 331 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 3,883 units permitted in Baldwin County in 2024 (481 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Baldwin County population projected at +42% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 118 days — a 9% lower offer ($309k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $247,002 (27.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 118 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.83%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.66%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 11.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $356,008
• List price: $339,999
• Delta: -4.50%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
31579 Lyon Rd	0.36mi	4/2.0	2,031 (-0%)	1mo	$360,558	$178	82
31847 Lyon Rd	0.49mi	4/2.0	2,031 (-0%)	2mo	$356,650	$176	75
12738 Chickadee Ln	0.50mi	4/2.0	1,960 (-4%)	2mo	$344,900	$176	68
12693 Waxwing Ave	0.52mi	4/2.0	1,940 (-5%)	1mo	$339,500	$175	67
31147 Semper Dr	0.35mi	4/2.0	1,835 (-10%)	1mo	$345,000	$188	66
31578 Lyon Rd	0.30mi	4/2.0	1,791 (-12%)	1mo	$349,558	$195	65
31662 Lyon Rd	0.35mi	4/2.0	1,791 (-12%)	1mo	$351,058	$196	63
31625 Lyon Rd	0.37mi	4/2.0	1,791 (-12%)	1mo	$349,558	$195	62
31697 Lyon Rd	0.39mi	4/2.0	1,791 (-12%)	2mo	$342,308	$191	60
30954 Semper Dr	0.39mi	4/2.5	2,306 (+13%)	1mo	$430,000	$186	57
30629 Ashville Rd	0.65mi	4/3.0	2,231 (+10%)	1mo	$397,280	$178	49
30560 Ashville Rd	0.71mi	4/2.5	2,256 (+11%)	1mo	$403,248	$179	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.52% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-54,532
• Equity at exit: $50,695

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.80×
• Total profit: $-18,817
• Equity at exit: $29,397

Cash invested: $95,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 36527

• Home prices YoY: -14.4%
• Rents YoY: 6.5%
• Active inventory: 331
• Price-to-rent: 11.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,470 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,783
• Tax from tax record: −$100 /mo · $1,200/yr
• Insurance: −$142
• HOA: −$58
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$519
• Net cashflow: $-131

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,636

Max offer price $316,791

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $85,000
• Closing costs: $10,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
31448 Memphis Loop Daphne, AL	4.0	2.0	2033	$2,400	$1.18	13d	1	0.01mi
31407 Montalto Ct Daphne, AL	4.0	3.0	2796	$2,700	$0.97	13d	1	0.06mi
12941 Sanderling Loop Daphne, AL	4.0	3.0	2536	$2,695	$1.06	21d	1	0.31mi
13522 Monticello Blvd Daphne, AL	4.0	2.0	2318	$2,700	$1.16	21d	1	0.34mi
31697 Lyon Rd Spanish Fort, AL	4.0	2.0	1787	$2,500	$1.40	21d	1	0.41mi
31100 Falling Waters Loop Daphne, AL	2.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	1158	$2,299	$1.99	43d	1	0.58mi
31573 Shearwater Dr Daphne, AL	4.0	2.0	1830	$1,995	$1.09	21d	1	0.62mi
13445 Antler Hill Rd Spanish Fort, AL	4.0	2.0	1921	$2,100	$1.09	43d	1	0.67mi
32231 Emancipation Cir Spanish Fort, AL	3.0	2.5	1492	$1,850	$1.24	43d	1	0.70mi
31566 Spoonbill Rd Daphne, AL	4.0	3.0	2970	$2,800	$0.94	13d	1	0.76mi
31399 Spoonbill Rd Daphne, AL	4.0	3.5	2567	$2,995	$1.17	21d	1	0.79mi
13708 Antler Hill Rd Daphne, AL	4.0	2.0	1948	$2,300	$1.18	43d	1	0.86mi
11801 Balsam Ct Daphne, AL	4.0	2.0	1783	$2,195	$1.23	21d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $58 · $696/yr
• Likely covers: landscapingpool

Listing history 37 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $339,999 Active 118 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $339,999 Active 117 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $339,999 Active 116 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $339,999 Active 115 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $339,999 Active 114 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $339,999 Active 112 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $339,999 Active 111 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $339,999 Active 109 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $339,999 Active 108 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $339,999 Active 107 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $339,999 Active 106 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $339,999 Active 103 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $339,999 Active 102 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $339,999 Active 101 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $339,999 Active 100 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $339,999 Active 99 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $339,999 Active 98 DOM
18. 2026-04-12
    price $345,000 565-char remark

    Show marketing remark (565 chars)

    Beautiful Gold Fortified Ryder floor plan on a corner lot in Stonebridge, offering 4 bedrooms, 2 baths, and a bright, open layout designed for easy living. The fenced backyard and covered patio create a perfect space for relaxing or entertaining. Residents enjoy exceptional neighborhood amenities—multiple pools, playgrounds, sports courts, sidewalks, and scenic walking trails. Convenient Spanish Fort location with quick access to Hwy 31 and I-10, plus close proximity to schools, shopping, and dining. Buyer to verify all information during due diligence.

19. 2026-03-15
    price $346,999 565-char remark

    Show marketing remark (565 chars)

    Beautiful Gold Fortified Ryder floor plan on a corner lot in Stonebridge, offering 4 bedrooms, 2 baths, and a bright, open layout designed for easy living. The fenced backyard and covered patio create a perfect space for relaxing or entertaining. Residents enjoy exceptional neighborhood amenities—multiple pools, playgrounds, sports courts, sidewalks, and scenic walking trails. Convenient Spanish Fort location with quick access to Hwy 31 and I-10, plus close proximity to schools, shopping, and dining. Buyer to verify all information during due diligence.

20. 2026-02-21
    listed $349,999 Active 565-char remark

    Show marketing remark (565 chars)

    Beautiful Gold Fortified Ryder floor plan on a corner lot in Stonebridge, offering 4 bedrooms, 2 baths, and a bright, open layout designed for easy living. The fenced backyard and covered patio create a perfect space for relaxing or entertaining. Residents enjoy exceptional neighborhood amenities—multiple pools, playgrounds, sports courts, sidewalks, and scenic walking trails. Convenient Spanish Fort location with quick access to Hwy 31 and I-10, plus close proximity to schools, shopping, and dining. Buyer to verify all information during due diligence.

21. 2023-06-26
    soldstatus $320,000
22. 2023-06-23
    soldstatus $320,000 Closed
23. 2023-06-23
    soldstatus $320,000 Closed
24. 2023-06-07
    historical Active Under Contract
25. 2023-05-30
    historical
26. 2023-05-30
    historical Active Under Contract
27. 2023-05-11
    price $329,999
28. 2023-05-11
    price $329,999
29. 2023-05-01
    price $339,900
30. 2023-05-01
    price $339,900
31. 2023-03-16
    listed $354,900 Active
32. 2023-03-16
    listed $354,900 Active
33. 2022-03-30
    historical
34. 2022-03-16
    listed $364,900 Active
35. 2022-01-18
    soldstatus $319,578 Closed
36. 2021-11-14
    listed $319,578
37. 2021-11-11
    historical

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,200 · $100/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,394 · $116/mo
• Expected delta: +$194/yr (+$16/mo · 16.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,640
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,045
• − Property taxes: −$1,200
• − Insurance: −$1,700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,371
• − Management: −$2,371
• − HOA: −$696
• − Depreciation: −$9,891
• Taxable loss: −$7,635
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,832
• After-tax cash flow: $256/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baldwin County
• NCES district ID: 0100270
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -26.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $50,677
• Composite: 38.61/100
• National rank: #4157
• State rank: #18 of 129 in AL

Livability — Loxley

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #95
• US rank: #11346

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime D Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Loxley, AL
• County: Baldwin County · 181,514 people
• Metro: Daphne-Fairhope-Foley, AL
• Population (ZIP): 21,765
• Household income: $120,189
• Rent vs Own: 23.9% rent · 76.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 378.0

Population outlook (Baldwin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 248,264 people
• By 2030: 270,315 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 312,967 · +26.1%
• By 2050: 352,262 · +41.9%
• By 2075: 438,841 · +76.8%
• By 2100: 487,736 · +96.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Two or more races 8% Black 6% Hispanic / Latino 5% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Jamaica, South Korea
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Baldwin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+58.2) · D 20.5% · R 78.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.7pp toward R · 2008: -51.5pp · 2024: -58.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+58.2 2020: R+53.8 2016: R+57.8 2012: R+55.8 2008: R+51.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -39.56%
• Current HPI: 234.5113
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.52%
• Metro: Daphne-Fairhope-Foley, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+8.0% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-12 Price Changed $345,000 BCAR
• 2026-03-15 Price Changed $346,999 BCAR
• 2026-02-21 Listed $349,999 BCAR
• 2023-06-26 Sold (Public Records) $320,000 Public Records
• 2023-06-23 Sold (MLS) $320,000 BCAR
• 2023-06-23 Sold (MLS) $320,000 GCMLS AL
• 2023-06-07 Contingent — BCAR
• 2023-05-30 Delisted — BCAR
• 2023-05-30 Contingent — GCMLS AL
• 2023-05-11 Price Changed $329,999 GCMLS AL
• 2023-05-11 Price Changed $329,999 BCAR
• 2023-05-01 Price Changed $339,900 GCMLS AL
• 2023-05-01 Price Changed $339,900 BCAR
• 2023-03-16 Listed $354,900 GCMLS AL
• 2023-03-16 Listed $354,900 BCAR
• 2022-03-30 Delisted — BCAR
• 2022-03-16 Listed $364,900 BCAR
• 2022-01-18 Sold (MLS) $319,578 BCAR
• 2021-11-14 Listed $319,578 BCAR
• 2021-11-11 Delisted — BCAR

Property tax history

+51.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,200 · -49.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.