189 Cravenwood Ave · Rochester, NY 14616

$124,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,677 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 20 Days on market

Built 1931 7,500 sqft lot Est $235k · 47% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +8.8/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

VERY MOTIVATED SELLER! 3 bdrm, 1.5 bath Colonial w/ hardwood floors and arched entryways. Many new updates including a brand new Maple kitchen, new counter tops, sink/faucet, flooring, lights and windows! A completely remodeled main bath with a new tub and ceramic tile in the shower, new sink, vanity, flooring, light fixtures, fan & window! Freshly painted interior, new light fixtures throughout & new windows in the dining & Family rooms. New vinyl facia and trim, partially finished basement and glass Pocket doors to the Family room. CA, 1.5 car garage, 20x8 encl porch. Immediate Possession!

Key facts

• 1.5-car garage
• Large enclosed porch
• Large backyard

Tags

• LARGE ENCLOSED PORCH
• UNFINISHED ATTIC
• LARGE BACKYARD
• 1.5-CAR GARAGE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $317 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $123k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#222 in NY, #3,482 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, crime F, employment F.
• Greece Central School District (suburban): math 35% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #544 of 590 in NY (top 92%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 112 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 62% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,169 units permitted in Monroe County in 2024 (591 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($66k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Monroe County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($123k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $90k; 39% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 5.0% of price; built in 1931 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $123,026 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1931 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.56% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.89%
• DSCR: 1.48
• GRM: 5.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $234,780
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
189 Cravenwood Ave	0.00mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,677 (0%)	1mo	$181,000	$108	92
41 Cleverdale Rd	0.34mi	3/1.5	1,604 (-4%)	1mo	$260,000	$162	74
3457 Dewey Ave	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,734 (+3%)	5mo	$235,000	$136	69
94 Newfield Dr	0.47mi	3/1.5	1,616 (-4%)	3mo	$255,000	$158	68
147 Hager Rd	0.30mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,776 (+6%)	4mo	$170,000	$96	62
126 Brookridge Dr	0.17mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,458 (-13%)	5mo	$242,500	$166	58
25 Williston Rd	0.63mi	3/1.5	1,750 (+4%)	5mo	$225,000	$129	57
99 Bakerdale Rd	0.74mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,690 (+1%)	1mo	$221,000	$131	57
61 Villewood Dr	0.73mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,612 (-4%)	2mo	$258,000	$160	51
99 Beverly Hts	0.64mi	3/2.5	1,536 (-8%)	3mo	$214,400	$140	47
1010 Stone Rd	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,470 (-12%)	3mo	$210,000	$143	43
132 Duffern Dr	0.67mi	3/1.5	1,440 (-14%)	3mo	$160,000	$111	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.01×
• Total profit: $227
• Equity at exit: $18,623

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.78×
• Total profit: $27,248
• Equity at exit: $10,799

Cash invested: $34,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14616

• Home prices YoY: -18.0%
• Active inventory: 112
• Price-to-rent: 5.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,951 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$655
• Tax from tax record: −$517 /mo · $6,204/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$410
• Net cashflow: $317

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,549

Max offer price $124,900

Occupancy floor 79%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $765	-5% $721	+0% $317	+5% $282	+10% $247
Rent	-10% $163	-5% $240	+0% $317	+5% $394	+10% $472
Rate	-1.0pp $380	-0.5pp $349	base $317	+0.5pp $285	+1.0pp $252

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,225
• Closing costs: $3,747
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
37 Linda Dr Unit 1 Rochester, NY	3.0	2.0	1600	$2,100	$1.31	45d	1	0.53mi
175 English Rd Rochester, NY	3.0	1.5	1194	$1,975	$1.65	45d	1	0.71mi
331 Leonard Rd Rochester, NY	3.0	2.0	1157	$1,850	$1.60	5d	1	0.72mi
304 Bakerdale Rd Rochester, NY	3.0	1.0	1256	$1,650	$1.31	46d	1	0.82mi
262 Jamestown Ter Unit 2 Rochester, NY	2.0	1.0	1242	$2,200	$1.77	45d	1	0.85mi
60 Grand Teton St Greece, NY	2.0–3.0	2.0	1833	$2,673	$1.46	4d	3	0.90mi
108 Glenbrook Rd Rochester, NY	3.0	1.0	1088	$1,850	$1.70	25d	1	0.91mi
3677 Lake Ave Rochester, NY	2.0	1.0	1088	$1,200	$1.10	45d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-03-03
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-11
   listed $124,900 Active
3. 2026-02-10
   historical
4. 2026-02-04
   listed $149,900 Active
5. 2014-04-15
   soldstatus $89,900
6. 2014-04-11
   soldstatus $89,900 616-char remark

   Show marketing remark (616 chars)

   VERY MOTIVATED SELLER! 3 bdrm, 1.5 bath Colonial w/ hardwood floors and arched entryways. Many new updates including a brand new Maple kitchen, new counter tops, sink/faucet, flooring, lights and windows! A completely remodeled main bath with a new tub and ceramic tile in the shower, new sink, vanity, flooring, light fixtures, fan & window! Freshly painted interior, new light fixtures throughout & new windows in the dining & Family rooms. New vinyl facia and trim, partially finished basement and glass Pocket doors to the Family room. CA, 1.5 car garage, 20x8 encl porch. Immediate Possession!

7. 2014-01-24
   listed $89,900 616-char remark

   Show marketing remark (616 chars)

   VERY MOTIVATED SELLER! 3 bdrm, 1.5 bath Colonial w/ hardwood floors and arched entryways. Many new updates including a brand new Maple kitchen, new counter tops, sink/faucet, flooring, lights and windows! A completely remodeled main bath with a new tub and ceramic tile in the shower, new sink, vanity, flooring, light fixtures, fan & window! Freshly painted interior, new light fixtures throughout & new windows in the dining & Family rooms. New vinyl facia and trim, partially finished basement and glass Pocket doors to the Family room. CA, 1.5 car garage, 20x8 encl porch. Immediate Possession!

8. 2013-10-06
   listed $94,900
9. 2013-08-27
   soldstatus $54,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $6,204 · $517/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,204 · $517/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,414
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,996
• − Property taxes: −$6,204
• − Insurance: −$624
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,873
• − Management: −$1,873
• − Depreciation: −$3,633
• Taxable income: $2,210
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$530
• After-tax cash flow: $3,278/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Greece Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3612630
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $52,718
• Composite: 32.26/100
• National rank: #5761
• State rank: #544 of 590 in NY

Livability — Rochester

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #222
• US rank: #3482

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Monroe County · 674,131 people
• City population: 432,803
• Metro: Rochester, NY
• Population (ZIP): 26,863
• Household income: $66,499
• Rent vs Own: 28.4% rent · 71.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 789.0

Population outlook (Monroe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 759,460 people
• By 2030: 757,154 · -0.3%
• By 2040: 740,644 · -2.5%
• By 2050: 714,443 · -5.9%
• By 2075: 645,883 · -15.0%
• By 2100: 547,084 · -28.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Black 13% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 8% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 9%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Lithuanian 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Philippines, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 5% Arabic 2% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Monroe

• 2024 margin: D (+19.1) · D 59.5% · R 40.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.4pp toward D · 2008: 17.7pp · 2024: 19.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.1 2020: D+21.0 2016: D+14.1 2012: D+17.4 2008: D+17.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -54.14%
• Current HPI: 246.1703
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Rochester, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+131.3% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-03 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2026-02-11 Listed $124,900 UNYREIS
• 2026-02-10 Listing Removed — UNYREIS
• 2026-02-04 Listed $149,900 UNYREIS
• 2014-04-15 Sold (Public Records) $89,900 Public Records
• 2014-04-11 Sold (MLS) $89,900 UNYREIS
• 2014-01-24 Listed $89,900 UNYREIS
• 2013-10-06 Listed $94,900 UNYREIS
• 2013-08-27 Sold (Public Records) $54,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,204 · +0.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.