15044 Tidewater Trl · Tappahannock, VA 22436

$65,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,098 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 122 Days on market

Built 1920 0.50 ac lot $59/sqft · 74% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +7.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great Location on Tidewater Trail, Easy Commute to Tappahannock, Fredericksburg, and Dahlgren. Perfect opportunity for investors and buyers looking for a renovation project. This property needs extensive repairs and is being sold as is. Subject is a cottage with Two Bedrooms, One Bath, Metal Roof. Sold AS IS

Key facts

• Metal roof
• Tidewater trail
• Easy commute

Tags

• TIDEWATER TRAIL
• EASY COMMUTE
• METAL ROOF

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $65k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $65k).
• Recommended offer: $57k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 29.3% vs local median 2.2% in Tappahannock — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#439 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Essex County Public School District (town): math 22% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #124 of 131 in VA (top 95%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 3 active listings in the ZIP; 38 units permitted in Essex County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($449 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (5.3% local appreciation)).
• Essex County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (5.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 122 days — a 12% lower offer ($57k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $57,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 122 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.16% ✓
• Cap rate: 29.27%
• Cash-on-cash: 82.07%
• DSCR: 4.65
• GRM: 2.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $247,126
• List price: $65,000
• Delta: -73.70%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

5.26% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 88.1%
• Equity multiple: 6.23×
• Total profit: $95,202
• Equity at exit: $37,854

10-year hold

• IRR: 86.2%
• Equity multiple: 13.02×
• Total profit: $218,815
• Equity at exit: $66,190

Cash invested: $18,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22436

• Home prices YoY: 2.8%
• Active inventory: 3
• Price-to-rent: 2.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,057 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$341
• Tax from tax record: −$12 /mo · $148/yr
• Insurance: −$27
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$432
• Net cashflow: $1,245

Break-even live

Break-even rent $481

Max offer price $65,000

Occupancy floor 34%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,281	-5% $1,263	+0% $1,245	+5% $1,226	+10% $1,208
Rent	-10% $1,082	-5% $1,163	+0% $1,245	+5% $1,326	+10% $1,407
Rate	-1.0pp $1,277	-0.5pp $1,261	base $1,245	+0.5pp $1,228	+1.0pp $1,211

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,250
• Closing costs: $1,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $65,000 Active 122 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $65,000 Active 120 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $65,000 Active 119 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $65,000 Active 118 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $65,000 Active 117 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $65,000 Active 116 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $65,000 Active 115 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $65,000 Active 114 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $65,000 Active 111 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $65,000 Active 110 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $65,000 Active 109 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $65,000 Active 108 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $65,000 Active 105 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $65,000 Active 104 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $65,000 Active 103 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $65,000 Active 102 DOM
17. 2026-02-18
    status Active 309-char remark

    Show marketing remark (309 chars)

    Great Location on Tidewater Trail, Easy Commute to Tappahannock, Fredericksburg, and Dahlgren. Perfect opportunity for investors and buyers looking for a renovation project. This property needs extensive repairs and is being sold as is. Subject is a cottage with Two Bedrooms, One Bath, Metal Roof. Sold AS IS

18. 2026-02-11
    listed $65,000 Active 308-char remark

    Show marketing remark (308 chars)

    Great Location on Tidewater Trail, Easy Commute to Tappahannock, Fredericksburg, and Dahlgren. Perfect opportunity for investors or buyers looking for a renovation project. This property needs extensive repairs and is being sold as is. Subject is a cottage with Two Bedrooms, One Bath, Metal Roof. Sold AS IS

19. 2025-11-30
    historical
20. 2025-10-18
    status Active
21. 2025-09-24
    status Pending
22. 2025-06-21
    listed $65,000 Active 309-char remark

    Show marketing remark (309 chars)

    Great Location on Tidewater Trail, Easy Commute to Tappahannock, Fredericksburg, and Dahlgren. Perfect opportunity for investors and buyers looking for a renovation project. This property needs extensive repairs and is being sold as is. Subject is a cottage with Two Bedrooms, One Bath, Metal Roof. Sold AS IS

23. 2025-06-18
    listed $65,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $148 · $12/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $533 · $44/mo
• Expected delta: +$385/yr (+$32/mo · 260.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,683
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,641
• − Property taxes: −$148
• − Insurance: −$325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,975
• − Management: −$1,975
• − Depreciation: −$1,891
• Taxable income: $14,729
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,535
• After-tax cash flow: $11,401/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Essex County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5101200
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -43.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $45,651
• Composite: 32.7/100
• National rank: #5645
• State rank: #124 of 131 in VA

Livability — Tappahannock

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #439
• US rank: #18835

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment F Housing B Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 719

Population outlook (Essex County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 11,027 people
• By 2030: 10,772 · -2.3%
• By 2040: 10,006 · -9.3%
• By 2050: 9,043 · -18.0%
• By 2075: 6,629 · -39.9%
• By 2100: 4,618 · -58.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 76% White 24%

Political lean MEDSL · Essex

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+7.8) · D 45.8% · R 53.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.1pp toward R · 2008: 10.3pp · 2024: -7.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+7.8 2020: R+0.6 2016: R+2.2 2012: D+7.2 2008: D+10.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.26%
• Current HPI: 195.6356
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-18 Relisted — NNAR
• 2026-02-11 Listed $65,000 CVRMLS
• 2025-11-30 Listing Removed — CVRMLS
• 2025-10-18 Relisted — CVRMLS
• 2025-09-24 Pending — CVRMLS
• 2025-06-21 Listed $65,000 NNAR
• 2025-06-18 Listed $65,000 CVRMLS

Property tax history

-2.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $148 · -19.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.