9114 Harrison Bay Rd · Lakesite, TN 37341

$150,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,048 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 25 Days on market

Built 1958 0.66 ac lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.1/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.0/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 9114 Harrison Bay Road! This 3 bedroom, 1 bath home is just over 2,000 square feet, full of potential and perfectly positioned across the street from the lake, just minutes from Harrison Bay State Park and Bear Trace at Harrison Bay. Inside, you'll find a layout ready for transformation, including a sunroom that could become your favorite spot to unwind with a glimpse of the lake and a small front and side deck overlooking the yard. If you're looking for a place near the water that you can truly make your own, this home is the one! Whether you are looking for a home for yourself or as an investment this as is home is the opportunity you have been looking for. hvac approx 3 yrs old well pump approx 1 yr old Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Buyer to verify all information deemed important.

Key facts

• 0.66 acre lot
• Built 1958
• Listed 25 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area reported as 2,048 (assessor); Building area total reported as 2,048 (assessor)

Exterior

• Parking: Detached parking; Driveway; Paved parking
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property; Three or more levels; Entry level not specified; Facing direction not specified
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Wood siding; Other siding materials; Metal roof; Block foundation; Existing year built (pre-owned structure)
• Exterior features: Views; Lot approximately 0.66 acres; Lot dimensions 208 x 157 x 160 x 155

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Wood; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Electric range; Has heating; Has cooling; Central heating; Central air
• Laundry & utility: Washer/dryer connections not specified

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $451 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $148k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.4% vs local median 3.1% in Lakesite — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#119 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Hamilton County (urban): math 31% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #42 of 139 in TN (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Snow Hill Elementary (math 48% / reading 39%, grade F, #184 of 952 statewide, top 19%, 657 students, 0% FRL); Brown Middle School (math 14% / reading 15%, grade F, #231 of 333 statewide, top 70%, 344 students, 0% FRL); Central High School (math 8% / reading 32%, grade F, #183 of 332 statewide, top 59%, 749 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 52% district-wide (52 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 123 active listings in the ZIP; 2,133 units permitted in Hamilton County in 2024 (405 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hamilton County population projected at +23% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($148k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $37k; list at $150k implies a 305% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1958 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $147,750 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1958 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.20% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.77%
• DSCR: 1.66
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $366,592
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9104 Harrison Bay Rd	0.11mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,951 (-5%)	20mo	$350,000	$179	62

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.10×
• Total profit: $4,374
• Equity at exit: $22,365

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.97×
• Total profit: $40,704
• Equity at exit: $12,969

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 37341

• Active inventory: 123
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,800 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$56 /mo · $668/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$378
• Net cashflow: $451

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,229

Max offer price $150,000

Occupancy floor 70%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $535	-5% $493	+0% $451	+5% $408	+10% $366
Rent	-10% $308	-5% $379	+0% $451	+5% $522	+10% $593
Rate	-1.0pp $526	-0.5pp $489	base $451	+0.5pp $412	+1.0pp $372

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-08
   status $150,000 Pending 25 DOM
2. 2026-06-07
   pricestatusdays on market $150,000 Active 25 DOM
3. 2026-06-05
   days on market $175,000 Active Under Contract 22 DOM
4. 2026-06-03
   days on market $175,000 Active Under Contract 21 DOM
5. 2026-06-02
   days on market $175,000 Active Under Contract 20 DOM
6. 2026-06-01
   days on market $175,000 Active Under Contract 19 DOM
7. 2026-05-31
   days on market $175,000 Active Under Contract 18 DOM
8. 2026-05-30
   days on market $175,000 Active Under Contract 17 DOM
9. 2026-05-13
   listed Active Under Contract
10. 2026-05-10
    status Pending 826-char remark

    Show marketing remark (826 chars)

    Welcome to 9114 Harrison Bay Road! This 3 bedroom, 1 bath home is just over 2,000 square feet, full of potential and perfectly positioned across the street from the lake, just minutes from Harrison Bay State Park and Bear Trace at Harrison Bay. Inside, you'll find a layout ready for transformation, including a sunroom that could become your favorite spot to unwind with a glimpse of the lake and a small front and side deck overlooking the yard. If you're looking for a place near the water that you can truly make your own, this home is the one! Whether you are looking for a home for yourself or as an investment this as is home is the opportunity you have been looking for. hvac approx 3 yrs old well pump approx 1 yr old Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Buyer to verify all information deemed important.

11. 2026-05-01
    listed $175,000
12. 2026-04-30
    listed $175,000 Active 826-char remark

    Show marketing remark (826 chars)

    Welcome to 9114 Harrison Bay Road! This 3 bedroom, 1 bath home is just over 2,000 square feet, full of potential and perfectly positioned across the street from the lake, just minutes from Harrison Bay State Park and Bear Trace at Harrison Bay. Inside, you'll find a layout ready for transformation, including a sunroom that could become your favorite spot to unwind with a glimpse of the lake and a small front and side deck overlooking the yard. If you're looking for a place near the water that you can truly make your own, this home is the one! Whether you are looking for a home for yourself or as an investment this as is home is the opportunity you have been looking for. hvac approx 3 yrs old well pump approx 1 yr old Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Buyer to verify all information deemed important.

13. 1989-11-06
    soldstatus $37,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TN · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $668 · $56/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,065 · $89/mo
• Expected delta: +$397/yr (+$33/mo · 59.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 8% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,596
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$668
• − Insurance: −$1,547
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,728
• − Management: −$1,728
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable income: $3,159
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$758
• After-tax cash flow: $4,648/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hamilton County
• NCES district ID: 4701590
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $47,456
• Composite: 26.8/100
• National rank: #7122
• State rank: #42 of 139 in TN

Livability — Lakesite

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #119
• US rank: #11577

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 14,966

Population outlook (Hamilton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 393,784 people
• By 2030: 412,983 · +4.9%
• By 2040: 449,502 · +14.1%
• By 2050: 484,341 · +23.0%
• By 2075: 565,746 · +43.7%
• By 2100: 618,394 · +57.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Black 13% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Italian 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hamilton

• 2024 margin: R (+13.1) · D 42.7% · R 55.7% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.2pp toward R · 2008: -11.8pp · 2024: -13.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.1 2020: R+9.7 2016: R+16.6 2012: R+14.8 2008: R+11.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -261.59%
• Current HPI: 275.5006
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

+373.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Listed — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-10 Pending — GCAR
• 2026-05-01 Listed $175,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-30 Listed $175,000 GCAR
• 1989-11-06 Sold (Public Records) $37,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $668 · +10.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.