4104 Valley Side Dr · East Highland Park, VA 23223

$250,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,932 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 5 Days on market

Built 1994 0.28 ac lot Est $321k · 22% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.4/10.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Rent growth +4.1/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great opportunity for 1st x homebuyers or trader uppers who have lived in their current home 5 yrs in a row! $8,000. 1st x HB tax credit ENDS April 30th & govt will NOT extend, $6500.00 trader upper tax credit ends same time!HURRY! He who hesitates is LOST!Rates nice and low! Low payment, FOUR BDRM 3 FULL BATH!Pergo flrs, 90% finished lower level, ONE YEAR UPGRADED FIRST AMERICAN TPO OF LINE WARRANTY!$465.00!Nice security blanket for buyer. Deck, private wooded view, lots for the LOW price of $155,000!Super lower level retreat area w/ sep entrance great for game room, mom in law, teens, entertaining. Priced well, nice neighborhood near new shops, conv to dwntwn w/ low county taxes, alarm system too

Key facts

• 0.28 acre lot
• Built 1994
• Listed 5 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $318 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $241k (3.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $241k (3.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 4.2% in East Highland Park — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#197 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, schools D-, amenities D-.
• Henrico County Public School District (suburban): math 49% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #68 of 131 in VA (top 52%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.4%/yr); 337 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,826 units permitted in Henrico County in 2024 (785 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,412/mo this rent would consume 52% of the median local household income ($56k/yr) (locally 3530% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Henrico County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.4% rent growth), your $70k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 17y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $153k; list at $250k implies a 63% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $241,236 (3.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.82%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.45%
• DSCR: 1.24
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $320,712
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4104 Valley Side Dr	0.00mi	4/3.0	1,932 (0%)	1mo	$275,000	$142	99
2809 Farm Creek Dr	0.10mi	4/2.0	1,990 (+3%)	4mo	$251,100	$126	83
4216 Valley Side Dr	0.18mi	4/2.0	1,978 (+2%)	9mo	$355,000	$179	77
4112 Bolling Rd	0.31mi	4/2.5	2,028 (+5%)	14mo	$360,000	$178	63
4232 Montclair Rd	0.28mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,068 (+7%)	8mo	$305,000	$147	62
2801 Valley Side Ct	0.05mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,675 (-13%)	14mo	$330,000	$197	59
3904 Darton Ter	0.28mi	4/2.5	2,092 (+8%)	19mo	$366,000	$175	55
2704 Bolling Ter	0.27mi	4/2.0	1,680 (-13%)	13mo	$362,000	$215	51
3905 Orchard Glen Dr	0.27mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,138 (+11%)	18mo	$325,000	$152	48
3108 E Laburnum Ave	0.60mi	4/2.0	1,767 (-8%)	10mo	$260,000	$147	45
2203 Mcdonald Rd	0.42mi	4/2.5	2,203 (+14%)	20mo	$365,000	$166	38
4304 Gaines Rd	0.68mi	4/2.5	2,160 (+12%)	13mo	$336,700	$156	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.38% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.83×
• Total profit: $-11,812
• Equity at exit: $37,276

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.76×
• Total profit: $52,922
• Equity at exit: $21,615

Cash invested: $70,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23223

• Rents YoY: 6.4%
• Active inventory: 337
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,412 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$172 /mo · $2,068/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$507
• Net cashflow: $318

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,010

Max offer price $250,000

Occupancy floor 82%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,500
• Closing costs: $7,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4100 Montclair Rd Richmond, VA	3.0	2.0	1942	$2,450	$1.26	44d	1	0.17mi
4184 Park Trail Dr Richmond, VA	3.0	2.5	1606	$2,525	$1.57	3d	1	0.46mi
4019 Grand Reserve Ln Richmond, VA	3.0	2.5	1606	$3,000	$1.87	24d	1	0.54mi
3221 Hunters Mill Dr Richmond, VA	3.0	2.0	1254	$1,750	$1.40	3d	1	0.97mi
1519 Byron St Richmond, VA	3.0	1.5	1384	$1,700	$1.23	3d	1	1.21mi
3101 Divine Dr Richmond, VA	3.0	2.5	1525	$2,700	$1.77	3d	1	1.39mi
3317 Waverly Blvd Unit B Richmond, VA	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,875	$1.25	17d	1	1.42mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-04-28
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-23
   listed $250,000 Active
3. 2026-04-03
   historical $250,000
4. 2024-12-19
   historical
5. 2024-11-23
   price $285,000
6. 2024-11-06
   listed $289,900 Active
7. 2010-05-13
   soldstatus $153,400
8. 2010-05-12
   soldstatus $153,400 713-char remark

   Show marketing remark (713 chars)

   Great opportunity for 1st x homebuyers or trader uppers who have lived in their current home 5 yrs in a row! $8,000. 1st x HB tax credit ENDS April 30th & govt will NOT extend, $6500.00 trader upper tax credit ends same time!HURRY! He who hesitates is LOST!Rates nice and low! Low payment, FOUR BDRM 3 FULL BATH!Pergo flrs, 90% finished lower level, ONE YEAR UPGRADED FIRST AMERICAN TPO OF LINE WARRANTY!$465.00!Nice security blanket for buyer. Deck, private wooded view, lots for the LOW price of $155,000!Super lower level retreat area w/ sep entrance great for game room, mom in law, teens, entertaining. Priced well, nice neighborhood near new shops, conv to dwntwn w/ low county taxes, alarm system too

9. 2010-05-12
   soldstatus $153,400

   Show marketing remark (713 chars)

   Great opportunity for 1st x homebuyers or trader uppers who have lived in their current home 5 yrs in a row! $8,000. 1st x HB tax credit ENDS April 30th & govt will NOT extend, $6500.00 trader upper tax credit ends same time!HURRY! He who hesitates is LOST!Rates nice and low! Low payment, FOUR BDRM 3 FULL BATH!Pergo flrs, 90% finished lower level, ONE YEAR UPGRADED FIRST AMERICAN TPO OF LINE WARRANTY!$465.00!Nice security blanket for buyer. Deck, private wooded view, lots for the LOW price of $155,000!Super lower level retreat area w/ sep entrance great for game room, mom in law, teens, entertaining. Priced well, nice neighborhood near new shops, conv to dwntwn w/ low county taxes, alarm system too

10. 2009-12-31
    historical 713-char remark

    Show marketing remark (713 chars)

    Great opportunity for 1st x homebuyers or trader uppers who have lived in their current home 5 yrs in a row! $8,000. 1st x HB tax credit ENDS April 30th & govt will NOT extend, $6500.00 trader upper tax credit ends same time!HURRY! He who hesitates is LOST!Rates nice and low! Low payment, FOUR BDRM 3 FULL BATH!Pergo flrs, 90% finished lower level, ONE YEAR UPGRADED FIRST AMERICAN TPO OF LINE WARRANTY!$465.00!Nice security blanket for buyer. Deck, private wooded view, lots for the LOW price of $155,000!Super lower level retreat area w/ sep entrance great for game room, mom in law, teens, entertaining. Priced well, nice neighborhood near new shops, conv to dwntwn w/ low county taxes, alarm system too

11. 2009-09-25
    listed $149,900 713-char remark

    Show marketing remark (713 chars)

    Great opportunity for 1st x homebuyers or trader uppers who have lived in their current home 5 yrs in a row! $8,000. 1st x HB tax credit ENDS April 30th & govt will NOT extend, $6500.00 trader upper tax credit ends same time!HURRY! He who hesitates is LOST!Rates nice and low! Low payment, FOUR BDRM 3 FULL BATH!Pergo flrs, 90% finished lower level, ONE YEAR UPGRADED FIRST AMERICAN TPO OF LINE WARRANTY!$465.00!Nice security blanket for buyer. Deck, private wooded view, lots for the LOW price of $155,000!Super lower level retreat area w/ sep entrance great for game room, mom in law, teens, entertaining. Priced well, nice neighborhood near new shops, conv to dwntwn w/ low county taxes, alarm system too

12. 2009-09-25
    listed $149,900

    Show marketing remark (713 chars)

    Great opportunity for 1st x homebuyers or trader uppers who have lived in their current home 5 yrs in a row! $8,000. 1st x HB tax credit ENDS April 30th & govt will NOT extend, $6500.00 trader upper tax credit ends same time!HURRY! He who hesitates is LOST!Rates nice and low! Low payment, FOUR BDRM 3 FULL BATH!Pergo flrs, 90% finished lower level, ONE YEAR UPGRADED FIRST AMERICAN TPO OF LINE WARRANTY!$465.00!Nice security blanket for buyer. Deck, private wooded view, lots for the LOW price of $155,000!Super lower level retreat area w/ sep entrance great for game room, mom in law, teens, entertaining. Priced well, nice neighborhood near new shops, conv to dwntwn w/ low county taxes, alarm system too

13. 1995-06-01
    soldstatus $84,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,068 · $172/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,068 · $172/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,948
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,004
• − Property taxes: −$2,068
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,316
• − Management: −$2,316
• − Depreciation: −$7,273
• Taxable loss: −$278
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$67
• After-tax cash flow: $3,885/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Henrico County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5101890
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -32.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $61,854
• Composite: 49.25/100
• National rank: #2031
• State rank: #68 of 131 in VA

Livability — East Highland Park

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #197
• US rank: #6099

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: East Highland Park, VA
• County: Henrico County · 334,490 people
• Metro: Richmond, VA
• Population (ZIP): 54,659
• Household income: $55,731
• Rent vs Own: 56.2% rent · 43.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 3530.0

Population outlook (Henrico County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 365,885 people
• By 2030: 384,255 · +5.0%
• By 2040: 416,688 · +13.9%
• By 2050: 442,376 · +20.9%
• By 2075: 488,037 · +33.4%
• By 2100: 487,430 · +33.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 71% White 19% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 4% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Henrico

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+28.9) · D 63.7% · R 34.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +16.6pp toward D · 2008: 12.2pp · 2024: 28.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+28.9 2020: D+29.0 2016: D+21.0 2012: D+11.7 2008: D+12.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -257.81%
• Current HPI: 324.0589
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.38%
• Metro: Richmond, VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+197.6% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Pending — CVRMLS
• 2026-04-23 Listed $250,000 CVRMLS
• 2026-04-03 Coming Soon $250,000 CVRMLS
• 2024-12-19 Listing Removed — CVRMLS
• 2024-11-23 Price Changed $285,000 CVRMLS
• 2024-11-06 Listed $289,900 CVRMLS
• 2010-05-13 Sold (Public Records) $153,400 Public Records
• 2010-05-12 Sold (MLS) $153,400 CVRMLS
• 2010-05-12 Sold (MLS) $153,400 CVRMLS
• 2009-12-31 Listing Removed — CVRMLS
• 2009-09-25 Listed $149,900 CVRMLS
• 2009-09-25 Listed $149,900 CVRMLS
• 1995-06-01 Sold (Public Records) $84,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,068 · +3.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.