14602 Broadbury Pond Rd · Fresno, TX 77583

$249,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,617 sqft · SingleFamily · 169 Days on market

Built 2021 Good condition 6,952 sqft lot Garage $155/sqft · 6% below area Est $267k · 6% under $75/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.8/30.0
• ARV discount +10.4/15.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 14602 Broadbury Pond Road, a charming 2-story home with 3 bedrooms and 2 & 1/2 baths. The spacious layout provides ample room for entertaining and relaxation. With a prime location and modern amenities, this property is perfect for anyone looking for a comfortable and stylish living space. Don't miss out on the opportunity to make this house your home. Call today for a private showing!

Key facts

• 6,952 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2021

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $250k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $69 ($824/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $237k (5.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $220k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 4.8% in Fresno — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#943 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Fort Bend ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #140 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Heritage Rose El (math 29% / reading 28%, grade F, #2,706 of 4,322 statewide, top 63%, 1,209 students, 83% FRL); Billy Baines Middle (math 47% / reading 53%, grade C, #347 of 1,662 statewide, top 21%, 1,296 students, 37% FRL); Fort Bend Co Alter (26 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools at 40% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1736 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 68d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 80% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 169 days — a 12% lower offer ($220k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $219,991 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 169 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.62%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.18%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $267,134
• List price: $249,990
• Delta: -6.42%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14242 Amherst Meadow Trl	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,614 (-0%)	3mo	$299,000	$185	80
5235 James Michael Dr	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,632 (+1%)	3mo	$275,000	$169	75
5322 Briana Dee Dr	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,539 (-5%)	1mo	$274,000	$178	72
5122 Shelby Katherine Dr	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,556 (-4%)	11mo	$269,990	$174	68
5334 Brooklyn Rose Dr	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,524 (-6%)	1mo	$265,000	$174	67
5050 Hurston Park Trl	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,450 (-10%)	11mo	$304,000	$210	67
5207 James Michael Dr	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,516 (-6%)	12mo	$269,890	$178	61
5203 James Michael Dr	0.34mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,721 (+6%)	12mo	$284,990	$166	57
5631 Briana Dee Dr	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,556 (-4%)	11mo	$259,990	$167	53
5407 James Michael Dr	0.49mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,759 (+9%)	4mo	$280,000	$159	52
5615 Briana Dee Dr	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,516 (-6%)	11mo	$274,990	$181	50
5615 James Michael Dr	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,390 (-14%)	2mo	$237,000	$171	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.44% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-42,005
• Equity at exit: $37,274

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.23×
• Total profit: $-53,809
• Equity at exit: $21,615

Cash invested: $69,997 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 14 active · 11 under contract
• Months of supply: 6.0 mo (17%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $282,498 ($167/sqft)
• Median days on market: 43 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: -1.0% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77583

• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 1736
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,369 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$312 /mo · $3,750/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$75
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$497
• Net cashflow: $69

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,282

Max offer price $249,990

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $241	-5% $155	+0% $69	+5% $-18	+10% $-104
Rent	-10% $-118	-5% $-25	+0% $69	+5% $162	+10% $256
Rate	-1.0pp $195	-0.5pp $132	base $69	+0.5pp $4	+1.0pp $-62

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,498
• Closing costs: $7,500
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4907 Luke Mathew Dr Rosharon, TX	4.0	2.5	2127	$2,395	$1.13	37d	1	0.27mi
5203 James Michael Dr Rosharon, TX	4.0	3.0	1721	$2,400	$1.39	68d	1	0.32mi
5522 Briana Dee Dr Rosharon, TX	3.0	2.0	1370	$2,100	$1.53	139d	1	0.52mi
414 Manor Ave Arcola, TX	4.0	2.0	1796	$2,500	$1.39	31d	1	0.86mi
4322 Billy Ln Fresno, TX	3.0	2.0	2065	$1,595	$0.77	45d	1	0.87mi
318 Manor Ave Rosharon, TX	3.0	3.0	1924	$2,400	$1.25	139d	1	0.90mi
4751 Chisholm Holw Fresno, TX	3.0	2.0	1516	$1,483	$0.98	24d	1	1.08mi
919 Yorkshire Holw Fresno, TX	3.0	2.0	1506	$2,100	$1.39	139d	1	1.09mi
4619 Monarch Blue Ln Fresno, TX	3.0	2.5	1933	$1,846	$0.95	139d	1	1.11mi
5517 Savannah Woods Ln Rosharon, TX	3.0	2.0	1839	$2,400	$1.31	10d	1	1.42mi

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community association: Goodwin & CompanyAnnual association fee of $900

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage2 garage spaces
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
• Home design: Residential propertyHome faces northFull ownershipSlab foundation
• Construction: Built in 2021Brick and cement siding exteriorComposition roof
• Exterior features: Fenced backyardSprinkler/irrigation systemPorchPrivate yardSubdivision settingConcrete road surface

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherDisposalGas ovenGas rangeMicrowaveRefrigeratorBreakfast nook
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on second floor (approx. 13 x 14)Bedroom on second floor (approx. 11 x 12)Bedroom on second floor (approx. 10 x 10)
• Flooring: CarpetPlank flooringVinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas)Central electric air conditioningThermostat is programmable
• Interior features: Primary bedroom has a private bathPantryTub with showerProgrammable thermostat
• Laundry & utility: Utility room on second floorWasher hookupElectric dryer hookup

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $249,990 Active 169 DOM
2. 2026-09-23
   days on market $249,990 Active 168 DOM
3. 2026-09-22
   days on market $249,990 Active 167 DOM
4. 2026-09-21
   days on market $249,990 Active 166 DOM
5. 2026-09-20
   days on market $249,990 Active 165 DOM
6. 2026-09-19
   days on market $249,990 Active 164 DOM
7. 2026-09-18
   days on market $249,990 Active 163 DOM
8. 2026-09-17
   days on market $249,990 Active 162 DOM
9. 2026-09-16
   days on market $249,990 Active 161 DOM
10. 2026-09-15
    days on market $249,990 Active 160 DOM
11. 2026-09-14
    days on market $249,990 Active 159 DOM
12. 2026-09-13
    days on market $249,990 Active 158 DOM
13. 2026-09-12
    days on market $249,990 Active 157 DOM
14. 2026-09-11
    days on market $249,990 Active 156 DOM
15. 2026-09-05
    days on market $249,990 Active 150 DOM
16. 2026-09-04
    days on market $249,990 Active 149 DOM
17. 2026-08-31
    days on market $249,990 Active 145 DOM
18. 2026-08-30
    days on market $249,990 Active 144 DOM
19. 2026-08-29
    days on market $249,990 Active 143 DOM
20. 2026-08-28
    days on market $249,990 Active 142 DOM
21. 2026-08-27
    days on market $249,990 Active 141 DOM
22. 2026-08-25
    days on market $249,990 Active 139 DOM
23. 2026-08-24
    days on market $249,990 Active 138 DOM
24. 2026-08-23
    days on market $249,990 Active 137 DOM
25. 2026-08-22
    days on market $249,990 Active 136 DOM
26. 2026-08-21
    days on market $249,990 Active 135 DOM
27. 2026-08-20
    days on market $249,990 Active 134 DOM
28. 2026-08-19
    days on market $249,990 Active 133 DOM
29. 2026-08-18
    days on market $249,990 Active 132 DOM
30. 2026-08-17
    days on market $249,990 Active 131 DOM
31. 2026-08-16
    days on market $249,990 Active 130 DOM
32. 2026-08-15
    days on market $249,990 Active 129 DOM
33. 2026-08-14
    days on market $249,990 Active 128 DOM
34. 2026-08-13
    days on market $249,990 Active 127 DOM
35. 2026-08-12
    days on market $249,990 Active 126 DOM
36. 2026-08-11
    days on market $249,990 Active 125 DOM
37. 2026-08-10
    days on market $249,990 Active 124 DOM
38. 2026-08-09
    days on market $249,990 Active 123 DOM
39. 2026-08-08
    days on market $249,990 Active 122 DOM
40. 2026-08-06
    days on market $249,990 Active 120 DOM
41. 2026-08-05
    days on market $249,990 Active 119 DOM
42. 2026-08-04
    days on market $249,990 Active 118 DOM
43. 2026-08-03
    days on market $249,990 Active 117 DOM
44. 2026-07-31
    days on market $249,990 Active 114 DOM
45. 2026-07-30
    days on market $249,990 Active 112 DOM
46. 2026-07-28
    days on market $249,990 Active 111 DOM
47. 2026-07-26
    days on market $249,990 Active 109 DOM
48. 2026-07-24
    days on market $249,990 Active 107 DOM
49. 2026-07-23
    days on market $249,990 Active 106 DOM
50. 2026-07-22
    days on market $249,990 Active 105 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,424
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,003
• − Property taxes: −$3,750
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,274
• − Management: −$2,274
• − HOA: −$900
• − Depreciation: −$7,272
• Taxable loss: −$3,299
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$792
• After-tax cash flow: $1,615/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $8,085–$24,255 screening

This charming 2-story home is in good condition with a fresh exterior and interior. It offers a good balance of curb appeal and functionality, making it an attractive option for both resale and rental markets.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value to the property. ↑
• Resale Kitchen updates — Modernizing the kitchen can attract more buyers. ↑
• Resale Bathroom updates — Updating bathrooms can increase the property's appeal and value. ↑
• Both HVAC maintenance — Ensures comfort and energy efficiency, improving both resale and rental value. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 34/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Walter Moses Burton El F TX #3,583/4,322 Nat'l #33,738/41,679 Middle Billy Baines Middle C TX #347/1,662 Nat'l #3,460/14,009 High Hightower H S F TX #1,002/1,632 Nat'l #10,121/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fort Bend ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819650
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $82,360
• Composite: 44.61/100
• National rank: #2779
• State rank: #140 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 62/100

Livability — Fresno

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #943
• US rank: #16815

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fresno, TX
• County: Brazoria County · 1,004,526 people
• City population: 30,210
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 52,747
• Household income: $119,287
• Rent vs Own: 9.8% rent · 90.2% own

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Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 38% Black 34% White 20% Two or more races 18% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 31% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Vietnamese 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -120.19%
• Current HPI: 198.6559
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.44%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community association: Goodwin & CompanyAnnual association fee of $900

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage2 garage spaces
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
• Home design: Residential propertyHome faces northFull ownershipSlab foundation
• Construction: Built in 2021Brick and cement siding exteriorComposition roof
• Exterior features: Fenced backyardSprinkler/irrigation systemPorchPrivate yardSubdivision settingConcrete road surface

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherDisposalGas ovenGas rangeMicrowaveRefrigeratorBreakfast nook
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on second floor (approx. 13 x 14)Bedroom on second floor (approx. 11 x 12)Bedroom on second floor (approx. 10 x 10)
• Flooring: CarpetPlank flooringVinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas)Central electric air conditioningThermostat is programmable
• Interior features: Primary bedroom has a private bathPantryTub with showerProgrammable thermostat
• Laundry & utility: Utility room on second floorWasher hookupElectric dryer hookup

Price history

-3.7% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Price Changed $259,900 HARMLS
• 2026-04-08 Listed $269,900 HARMLS