18906 Woodridge Dr · Porter Heights, TX 77302

$199,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,578 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 82 Days on market

Built 1980 0.46 ac lot $127/sqft · 22% below area Est $255k · 22% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.8/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.7/10.0
• 1% rule +6.0/10.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This is a 3 bedroom home with 2 full baths. Home in a subdivision. No HOA, So no fees or maintenance fees. Home sits on 19,672 SF lot. Roof replaced in 2024. Covered back patio. Only one block off of FM 1314. Close to FM 242 and Hwy 59. No restrictions

Key facts

• No restrictions
• Close to fm 242
• Covered back patio

Tags

• COVERED BACK PATIO
• ROOF REPLACED
• NO RESTRICTIONS
• CLOSE TO FM 242
• CLOSE TO HWY 59

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $386 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $200k).
• Recommended offer: $188k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.6% vs local median 2.5% in Porter Heights — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#663 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 1116 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($85k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 82 days — a 6% lower offer ($188k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 15y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $187,906 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 82 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.61%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.27%
• DSCR: 1.37
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $255,267
• List price: $199,900
• Delta: -21.69%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 13 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
18994 Woodridge Dr	0.07mi	3/1.5	1,433 (-9%)	24mo	$199,000	$139	59

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.3% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.87×
• Total profit: $-7,146
• Equity at exit: $29,806

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.50×
• Total profit: $28,229
• Equity at exit: $17,284

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77302

• Rents YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 1116
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,203 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax from tax record: −$223 /mo · $2,680/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$463
• Net cashflow: $386

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,715

Max offer price $199,900

Occupancy floor 78%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $499	-5% $442	+0% $386	+5% $329	+10% $273
Rent	-10% $212	-5% $299	+0% $386	+5% $473	+10% $560
Rate	-1.0pp $486	-0.5pp $437	base $386	+0.5pp $334	+1.0pp $281

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $199,900 Active 82 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,900 Active 79 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,900 Active 78 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,900 Active 77 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,900 Active 76 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,900 Active 74 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,900 Active 70 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,900 Active 69 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $199,900 Active 68 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $199,900 Active 65 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $199,900 Active 64 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,900 Active 63 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,900 Active 62 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,900 Active 61 DOM
15. 2026-05-17
    price $199,900 256-char remark

    Show marketing remark (256 chars)

    This is a 3 bedroom home with 2 full baths. Home in a subdivision. No HOA, So no fees or maintenance fees. Home sits on 19,672 SF lot. Roof replaced in 2024. Covered back patio. Only one block off of FM 1314. Close to FM 242 and Hwy 59. No restrictions

16. 2026-03-30
    listed $225,000 Active 256-char remark

    Show marketing remark (256 chars)

    This is a 3 bedroom home with 2 full baths. Home in a subdivision. No HOA, So no fees or maintenance fees. Home sits on 19,672 SF lot. Roof replaced in 2024. Covered back patio. Only one block off of FM 1314. Close to FM 242 and Hwy 59. No restrictions

17. 2012-06-05
    soldstatus
18. 2012-06-04
    soldstatus 352-char remark

    Show marketing remark (352 chars)

    Updated, fresh and gorgeous home on large acreage. This is a spacious home with a good layout. Bathrooms and kitchen have been updated. All room dimensions are approximate. Please do your own measuring. Large piece of land on a quiet street just off 1314. Easy access to I-45 and US 59. Come see!!!!. Feels like country living without being isolated.

19. 2012-04-30
    historical 352-char remark

    Show marketing remark (352 chars)

    Updated, fresh and gorgeous home on large acreage. This is a spacious home with a good layout. Bathrooms and kitchen have been updated. All room dimensions are approximate. Please do your own measuring. Large piece of land on a quiet street just off 1314. Easy access to I-45 and US 59. Come see!!!!. Feels like country living without being isolated.

20. 2011-11-17
    listed $95,000 352-char remark

    Show marketing remark (352 chars)

    Updated, fresh and gorgeous home on large acreage. This is a spacious home with a good layout. Bathrooms and kitchen have been updated. All room dimensions are approximate. Please do your own measuring. Large piece of land on a quiet street just off 1314. Easy access to I-45 and US 59. Come see!!!!. Feels like country living without being isolated.

21. 2011-08-19
    soldstatus
22. 2011-08-16
    soldstatus
23. 2011-08-04
    historical
24. 2011-07-27
    listed $35,900
25. 2006-08-17
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,680 · $223/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,658 · $305/mo
• Expected delta: +$979/yr (+$82/mo · 36.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 65% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,439
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$2,680
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,115
• − Management: −$2,115
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable income: $1,517
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$364
• After-tax cash flow: $4,264/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — Porter Heights

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #663
• US rank: #12479

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 21,546
• Household income: $84,673
• Rent vs Own: 17.1% rent · 82.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 205.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 19% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 20% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Indo-European 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -187.56%
• Current HPI: 262.1879
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.30%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+456.8% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-17 Price Changed $199,900 HARMLS
• 2026-03-30 Listed $225,000 HARMLS
• 2012-06-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2012-06-04 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2012-04-30 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2011-11-17 Listed $95,000 HARMLS
• 2011-08-19 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2011-08-16 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2011-08-04 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2011-07-27 Listed $35,900 HARMLS
• 2006-08-17 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+7.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,680 · -10.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.