33 Package Property · Tulia, TX 79088

$1,799,000

87 bd · 37.7 ba · 37,990 sqft · MultiFamily · 156 Days on market

Built 1970 Fair condition 8,800 sqft lot ↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.6/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 29 units. estimate disagrees with records

Listing remarks MLS

Cash-flowing, 8.5% CAP rate, 94% occupancy rate, rental property package deal! Can be sold as the total package, small packages or individually. High rental demand location with long-term tenants in place. Immediate cash flow, strong ROI and upside potential. 2-4 bedroom homes ranging from fully remodeled to fixer uppers. Meets the 1% rule and many are HUD eligible. Tulia 29 SFR and 1 commercial, Plainview 2 SFR, Lubbock 1 SRF. NOI and rent roll available.

Key facts

• 8,800 sq ft lot
• Built 1970
• Listed 156 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 29 × 3-bed/1.3-bath units multifamily listed at $1.80M. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $9k ($107k/yr) — positive. Per door: $309/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($27k rent vs $1.80M).
• Recommended offer: $1.58M (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,297 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: schools F, crime D-, amenities F.
• Tulia ISD (town): math 22% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #768 of 826 in TX (top 93%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 47 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $35k of equity ($12k loan paydown + $23k appreciation (1.3% local appreciation)).
• Swisher County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (1.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $504k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$125k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 156 days — a 12% lower offer ($1.58M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $1,583,120 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 156 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
3. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
4. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
5. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
9. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.50% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.26%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.32%
• DSCR: 1.95
• GRM: 5.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.26% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.24×
• Total profit: $626,750
• Equity at exit: $638,235

10-year hold

• IRR: 26.6%
• Equity multiple: 4.27×
• Total profit: $1,647,470
• Equity at exit: $867,101

Cash invested: $503,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79088

• Home prices YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 47
• Price-to-rent: 160.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $27,067 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$9,434
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$2,249 /mo · $26,985/yr
• Insurance: −$750
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$5,684
• Net cashflow: $8,950

Break-even live

Break-even rent $15,737

Max offer price $1,799,000

Occupancy floor 62%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $10,194	-5% $9,572	+0% $8,950	+5% $8,329	+10% $7,707
Rent	-10% $6,812	-5% $7,881	+0% $8,950	+5% $10,020	+10% $11,089
Rate	-1.0pp $9,856	-0.5pp $9,408	base $8,950	+0.5pp $8,484	+1.0pp $8,010

29-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 29× units	3	1.3	$27,057
Total (29 units)			$27,067

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $449,750
• Closing costs: $53,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $1,799,000 Active 156 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $1,799,000 Active 155 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $1,799,000 Active 154 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $1,799,000 Active 153 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $1,799,000 Active 152 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1,799,000 Active 151 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $1,799,000 Active 150 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $1,799,000 Active 147 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $1,799,000 Active 146 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $1,799,000 Active 145 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $1,799,000 Active 144 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $1,799,000 Active 141 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $1,799,000 Active 140 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $1,799,000 Active 139 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $1,799,000 Active 138 DOM
16. 2026-04-13
    price $1,799,000 460-char remark

    Show marketing remark (460 chars)

    Cash-flowing, 8.5% CAP rate, 94% occupancy rate, rental property package deal! Can be sold as the total package, small packages or individually. High rental demand location with long-term tenants in place. Immediate cash flow, strong ROI and upside potential. 2-4 bedroom homes ranging from fully remodeled to fixer uppers. Meets the 1% rule and many are HUD eligible. Tulia 29 SFR and 1 commercial, Plainview 2 SFR, Lubbock 1 SRF. NOI and rent roll available.

17. 2026-01-13
    listed $1,999,000 Active 460-char remark

    Show marketing remark (460 chars)

    Cash-flowing, 8.5% CAP rate, 94% occupancy rate, rental property package deal! Can be sold as the total package, small packages or individually. High rental demand location with long-term tenants in place. Immediate cash flow, strong ROI and upside potential. 2-4 bedroom homes ranging from fully remodeled to fixer uppers. Meets the 1% rule and many are HUD eligible. Tulia 29 SFR and 1 commercial, Plainview 2 SFR, Lubbock 1 SRF. NOI and rent roll available.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥98°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $324,804
• − Mortgage interest: −$100,772
• − Property taxes: −$26,985
• − Insurance: −$8,995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$25,984
• − Management: −$25,984
• − Depreciation: −$52,335
• Taxable income: $83,749
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$20,100
• After-tax cash flow: $87,306/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This multi-family property requires moderate renovations, including exterior painting, roof repair, and kitchen/bathroom updates. Immediate value can be added through these improvements, enhancing both resale and rental potential.

Repairs flagged

• Major kitchen cabinets — No photos of interiors.
• Major bathroom fixtures — No photos of interiors.
• Major interior walls — No photos of interiors.
• Major flooring — No photos of interiors.

Value-add opportunities

• Both paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value.
• Both repair roof — Prevents water damage and improves value.
• Both update kitchen and bathrooms — Modernizes spaces and increases value for both resale and rental.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
kitchen cabinets · No photos of interiors.	Major	$15,000–50,000
bathroom fixtures · No photos of interiors.	Major	$15,000–50,000
interior walls · No photos of interiors.	Major	$15,000–50,000
flooring · No photos of interiors.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 4 items		$60,000–200,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value. ↑
• Both repair roof — Prevents water damage and improves value. ↑
• Both update kitchen and bathrooms — Modernizes spaces and increases value for both resale and rental. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tulia ISD
• NCES district ID: 4843320
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 21% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $36,346
• Composite: 17.86/100
• National rank: #9004
• State rank: #768 of 826 in TX

Livability — Tulia

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #1297
• US rank: #22536

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment F Housing A Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tulia, TX
• Population (ZIP): 5,315

Population outlook (Swisher County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 7,108 people
• By 2030: 6,928 · -2.5%
• By 2040: 6,468 · -9.0%
• By 2050: 6,017 · -15.3%
• By 2075: 4,875 · -31.4%
• By 2100: 3,447 · -51.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 45% White 39% Two or more races 16% Black 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 39%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 29%

Political lean MEDSL · Swisher

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+63.5) · D 17.8% · R 81.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -29.1pp toward R · 2008: -34.3pp · 2024: -63.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+63.5 2020: R+58.0 2016: R+55.2 2012: R+47.5 2008: R+34.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.26%
• Current HPI: 158.3302
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-10.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $1,799,000 LARMLS
• 2026-01-13 Listed $1,999,000 LARMLS