918 Colby Bluff Dr · Rockwall, TX 75087

$499,999

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,810 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 176 Days on market

Built 2018 7,187 sqft lot $178/sqft · 9% below area Est $552k · 9% under $68/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.7/15.0
• Cash flow +5.9/30.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.8/10.0
• DSCR +0.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

MOTIVATED SELLERS! Located in the sought-after master-planned community of Breezy Hill and zoned to highly desirable Rockwall ISD, this 4-bedroom, 3-bath home delivers comfort, versatility, and thoughtful upgrades throughout. Built in 2018, the home features a beautiful stone and brick elevation and a well-designed layout with three bedrooms downstairs and a flexible fourth bedroom upstairs. Inside, enjoy LVP flooring in the main living and dining areas, a welcoming formal living room with crown molding, and a dedicated office with built-in cabinetry and French doors. The kitchen opens to the spacious family room featuring a cozy gas fireplace and offers granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, a gas cooktop, microwave, and a single oven. The private primary suite is set apart from the secondary bedrooms and includes an en-suite bath with granite countertops, dual vanities, a separate shower, a garden tub, and a customized closet system. Upstairs is a game room with a built-in refreshment center and a flex space that can serve as a media room, second office, hobby room or guest suite, complete with an adjacent full bathroom. Additional highlights include a tankless water heater, dedicated laundry room with sink and cabinets for storage, a covered patio with extended concrete, perfect for outdoor living, and a 2 car garage. Residents of Breezy Hill enjoy exceptional community amenities including a pool and splash pad, playground, pavilion, and scenic walking trails.

Key facts

• Gas cooktop
• Lvp flooring
• Dedicated office

Tags

• STONE AND BRICK ELEVATION
• LVP FLOORING
• DEDICATED OFFICE
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• GAS COOKTOP
• PRIVATE PRIMARY SUITE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $500k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-985 ($-12k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $326k (34.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $338k (32.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $326k (34.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 3.9% vs local median 2.9% in Rockwall — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#86 in TX, #3,043 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Rockwall ISD (suburban): math 54% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #83 of 826 in TX (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.2%/yr); 1008 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 43% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 1,810 units permitted in Rockwall County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($129k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Rockwall County population projected at +56% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 176 days — a 12% lower offer ($440k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $75k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $326,008 (34.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 176 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 35% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.68% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.93%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.44%
• DSCR: 0.62
• GRM: 12.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $551,540
• List price: $499,999
• Delta: -9.34%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1033 Fawn Trl	0.34mi	3/3.0	2,718 (-3%)	3mo	$489,000	$180	76
3441 Ridgecross Dr	0.16mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,498 (-11%)	7mo	$605,000	$242	61
1015 Sable Dr	0.51mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,713 (-4%)	4mo	$600,000	$221	60
1854 Costa Verde Dr	0.62mi	3/3.5	2,896 (+3%)	6mo	$659,900	$228	60
2438 Miranda Ln	0.66mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,929 (+4%)	0mo	$699,000	$239	57
13 Pringle Ln	0.57mi	3/2.5	2,672 (-5%)	8mo	$565,000	$211	57
914 Roys Dr	0.62mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,992 (+6%)	1mo	$785,900	$263	53
2404 Randas Way	0.68mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,745 (-2%)	8mo	$739,828	$270	51
780 Mountcastle Dr	0.70mi	3/3.0	2,510 (-11%)	6mo	$535,000	$213	44
3066 Stoney Hollow Ln	0.73mi	3/2.5	2,510 (-11%)	3mo	$449,000	$179	44
3060 Anna Cade Cir	0.73mi	4/3.0 (+1)	3,222 (+15%)	7mo	$1,349,900	$419	31
539 Bridle Ranch Dr	0.75mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,451 (-13%)	8mo	$585,000	$239	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.23% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -30.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.02×
• Total profit: $-142,795
• Equity at exit: $74,551

10-year hold

• IRR: -32.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.44×
• Total profit: $-201,187
• Equity at exit: $43,231

Cash invested: $140,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75087

• Rents YoY: 3.2%
• Active inventory: 1008
• Price-to-rent: 12.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,378 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,622
• Tax from tax record: −$755 /mo · $9,061/yr
• Insurance: −$208
• HOA: −$68
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$709
• Net cashflow: $-985

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,625

Max offer price $326,008

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $125,000
• Closing costs: $15,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3537 Ridgecross Dr Rockwall, TX	4.0	3.5	3542	$3,825	$1.08	43d	1	0.14mi
4602 Lorion Dr Rockwall, TX	4.0	3.0	3144	$4,100	$1.30	24d	1	0.62mi
4602 Lorion Dr Rockwall, TX	4.0	3.0	3144	$4,100	$1.30	43d	1	0.62mi
586 Mountcastle Dr Rockwall, TX	4.0	3.5	3087	$3,950	$1.28	43d	1	0.70mi
811 Knox Dr Rockwall, TX	4.0	2.0	2180	$2,850	$1.31	4d	1	0.71mi
439 Montrose Dr Rockwall, TX	4.0	4.5	3811	$3,900	$1.02	4d	1	1.13mi
1468 Red Wolf Dr Rockwall, TX	4.0	3.0	2835	$2,999	$1.06	5d	1	1.41mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $68 · $816/yr
• Likely covers: watergaspool

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-04
   days on market $499,999 Active 176 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $499,999 Active 175 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $499,999 Active 174 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $499,999 Active 173 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $499,999 Active 172 DOM
6. 2026-04-24
   price $533,900 1497-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1497 chars)

   MOTIVATED SELLERS! Located in the sought-after master-planned community of Breezy Hill and zoned to highly desirable Rockwall ISD, this 4-bedroom, 3-bath home delivers comfort, versatility, and thoughtful upgrades throughout. Built in 2018, the home features a beautiful stone and brick elevation and a well-designed layout with three bedrooms downstairs and a flexible fourth bedroom upstairs. Inside, enjoy LVP flooring in the main living and dining areas, a welcoming formal living room with crown molding, and a dedicated office with built-in cabinetry and French doors. The kitchen opens to the spacious family room featuring a cozy gas fireplace and offers granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, a gas cooktop, microwave, and a single oven. The private primary suite is set apart from the secondary bedrooms and includes an en-suite bath with granite countertops, dual vanities, a separate shower, a garden tub, and a customized closet system. Upstairs is a game room with a built-in refreshment center and a flex space that can serve as a media room, second office, hobby room or guest suite, complete with an adjacent full bathroom. Additional highlights include a tankless water heater, dedicated laundry room with sink and cabinets for storage, a covered patio with extended concrete, perfect for outdoor living, and a 2 car garage. Residents of Breezy Hill enjoy exceptional community amenities including a pool and splash pad, playground, pavilion, and scenic walking trails.

7. 2026-02-12
   price $538,869 1497-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1497 chars)

   MOTIVATED SELLERS! Located in the sought-after master-planned community of Breezy Hill and zoned to highly desirable Rockwall ISD, this 4-bedroom, 3-bath home delivers comfort, versatility, and thoughtful upgrades throughout. Built in 2018, the home features a beautiful stone and brick elevation and a well-designed layout with three bedrooms downstairs and a flexible fourth bedroom upstairs. Inside, enjoy LVP flooring in the main living and dining areas, a welcoming formal living room with crown molding, and a dedicated office with built-in cabinetry and French doors. The kitchen opens to the spacious family room featuring a cozy gas fireplace and offers granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, a gas cooktop, microwave, and a single oven. The private primary suite is set apart from the secondary bedrooms and includes an en-suite bath with granite countertops, dual vanities, a separate shower, a garden tub, and a customized closet system. Upstairs is a game room with a built-in refreshment center and a flex space that can serve as a media room, second office, hobby room or guest suite, complete with an adjacent full bathroom. Additional highlights include a tankless water heater, dedicated laundry room with sink and cabinets for storage, a covered patio with extended concrete, perfect for outdoor living, and a 2 car garage. Residents of Breezy Hill enjoy exceptional community amenities including a pool and splash pad, playground, pavilion, and scenic walking trails.

8. 2026-01-07
   price $549,999 1497-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1497 chars)

   MOTIVATED SELLERS! Located in the sought-after master-planned community of Breezy Hill and zoned to highly desirable Rockwall ISD, this 4-bedroom, 3-bath home delivers comfort, versatility, and thoughtful upgrades throughout. Built in 2018, the home features a beautiful stone and brick elevation and a well-designed layout with three bedrooms downstairs and a flexible fourth bedroom upstairs. Inside, enjoy LVP flooring in the main living and dining areas, a welcoming formal living room with crown molding, and a dedicated office with built-in cabinetry and French doors. The kitchen opens to the spacious family room featuring a cozy gas fireplace and offers granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, a gas cooktop, microwave, and a single oven. The private primary suite is set apart from the secondary bedrooms and includes an en-suite bath with granite countertops, dual vanities, a separate shower, a garden tub, and a customized closet system. Upstairs is a game room with a built-in refreshment center and a flex space that can serve as a media room, second office, hobby room or guest suite, complete with an adjacent full bathroom. Additional highlights include a tankless water heater, dedicated laundry room with sink and cabinets for storage, a covered patio with extended concrete, perfect for outdoor living, and a 2 car garage. Residents of Breezy Hill enjoy exceptional community amenities including a pool and splash pad, playground, pavilion, and scenic walking trails.

9. 2025-12-08
   listed $575,000 Active 1497-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1497 chars)

   MOTIVATED SELLERS! Located in the sought-after master-planned community of Breezy Hill and zoned to highly desirable Rockwall ISD, this 4-bedroom, 3-bath home delivers comfort, versatility, and thoughtful upgrades throughout. Built in 2018, the home features a beautiful stone and brick elevation and a well-designed layout with three bedrooms downstairs and a flexible fourth bedroom upstairs. Inside, enjoy LVP flooring in the main living and dining areas, a welcoming formal living room with crown molding, and a dedicated office with built-in cabinetry and French doors. The kitchen opens to the spacious family room featuring a cozy gas fireplace and offers granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, a gas cooktop, microwave, and a single oven. The private primary suite is set apart from the secondary bedrooms and includes an en-suite bath with granite countertops, dual vanities, a separate shower, a garden tub, and a customized closet system. Upstairs is a game room with a built-in refreshment center and a flex space that can serve as a media room, second office, hobby room or guest suite, complete with an adjacent full bathroom. Additional highlights include a tankless water heater, dedicated laundry room with sink and cabinets for storage, a covered patio with extended concrete, perfect for outdoor living, and a 2 car garage. Residents of Breezy Hill enjoy exceptional community amenities including a pool and splash pad, playground, pavilion, and scenic walking trails.

10. 2019-11-25
    soldstatus Sold 330-char remark

    Show marketing remark (330 chars)

    MLS# 14057938 - Built by Pacesetter Homes - Ready Now! ~ Spectacular Home WAS $410,000 NOW $399,900. Story and half home with 2 car garage, Game room, Media room and Study! What a rare gem! Large kitchen with beautiful island, perfect for entertaining or family gathering! Upgraded appliances! Stunning stone and brick elevation!!

11. 2019-10-22
    status Pending 330-char remark

    Show marketing remark (330 chars)

    MLS# 14057938 - Built by Pacesetter Homes - Ready Now! ~ Spectacular Home WAS $410,000 NOW $399,900. Story and half home with 2 car garage, Game room, Media room and Study! What a rare gem! Large kitchen with beautiful island, perfect for entertaining or family gathering! Upgraded appliances! Stunning stone and brick elevation!!

12. 2019-09-23
    price $394,900 330-char remark

    Show marketing remark (330 chars)

    MLS# 14057938 - Built by Pacesetter Homes - Ready Now! ~ Spectacular Home WAS $410,000 NOW $399,900. Story and half home with 2 car garage, Game room, Media room and Study! What a rare gem! Large kitchen with beautiful island, perfect for entertaining or family gathering! Upgraded appliances! Stunning stone and brick elevation!!

13. 2019-05-10
    price $399,900 330-char remark

    Show marketing remark (330 chars)

    MLS# 14057938 - Built by Pacesetter Homes - Ready Now! ~ Spectacular Home WAS $410,000 NOW $399,900. Story and half home with 2 car garage, Game room, Media room and Study! What a rare gem! Large kitchen with beautiful island, perfect for entertaining or family gathering! Upgraded appliances! Stunning stone and brick elevation!!

14. 2019-04-03
    listed $411,000 Active 330-char remark

    Show marketing remark (330 chars)

    MLS# 14057938 - Built by Pacesetter Homes - Ready Now! ~ Spectacular Home WAS $410,000 NOW $399,900. Story and half home with 2 car garage, Game room, Media room and Study! What a rare gem! Large kitchen with beautiful island, perfect for entertaining or family gathering! Upgraded appliances! Stunning stone and brick elevation!!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $9,061 · $755/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $9,150 · $762/mo
• Expected delta: +$89/yr (+$7/mo · 1.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $40,535
• − Mortgage interest: −$28,008
• − Property taxes: −$9,061
• − Insurance: −$2,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,243
• − Management: −$3,243
• − HOA: −$816
• − Depreciation: −$14,545
• Taxable loss: −$20,881
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,011
• After-tax cash flow: $-6,808/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rockwall ISD
• NCES district ID: 4837650
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $88,800
• Composite: 49.82/100
• National rank: #1952
• State rank: #83 of 826 in TX

Livability — Rockwall

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #86
• US rank: #3043

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rockwall, TX
• County: Rockwall County · 132,930 people
• City population: 84,191
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 44,326
• Household income: $129,484
• Rent vs Own: 18.8% rent · 81.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 646.0

Population outlook (Rockwall County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 118,396 people
• By 2030: 132,209 · +11.7%
• By 2040: 159,538 · +34.7%
• By 2050: 185,299 · +56.5%
• By 2075: 243,489 · +105.7%
• By 2100: 277,814 · +134.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 12% Black 7% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Vietnam, South Korea
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Rockwall

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+40.9) · D 29.1% · R 70.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: +5.3pp toward D · 2008: -46.2pp · 2024: -40.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+40.9 2020: R+37.7 2016: R+47.5 2012: R+53.3 2008: R+46.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -188.34%
• Current HPI: 208.2221
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.23%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+29.9% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Price Changed $533,900 NTREIS
• 2026-02-12 Price Changed $538,869 NTREIS
• 2026-01-07 Price Changed $549,999 NTREIS
• 2025-12-08 Listed $575,000 NTREIS
• 2019-11-25 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2019-10-22 Pending — NTREIS
• 2019-09-23 Price Changed $394,900 NTREIS
• 2019-05-10 Price Changed $399,900 NTREIS
• 2019-04-03 Listed $411,000 NTREIS

Property tax history

+23.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $9,061 · +5.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.