2511 Oak Cir · Salem, PA 18436

$254,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,412 sqft · SingleFamily · 38 Days on market

Built 1981 Good condition 0.45 ac lot $106/sqft · 13% below area Est $293k · 13% under $173/mo HOA · 8% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.3/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.7/30.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.8/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to The Hideout, where this inviting 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home combines comfort, flexibility, and Pocono charm. The updated kitchen and baths make the home move-in ready, while the thoughtful floor plan offers a first floor bedroom and bath, additional loft space upstairs, and a finished walkout basement complete with a family room, third bedroom, and full bath. Spend your evenings on the screened porch overlooking the yard, with plenty of space to add a hot tub, fire pit, or outdoor entertaining area. Located just a short walk from the lake and community amenities, this home is perfect as a primary residence, vacation getaway, or short-term rental opportunity.

Key facts

• Community amenities
• Screened porch
• Updated kitchen

Tags

• UPDATED KITCHEN
• FINISHED WALKOUT BASEMENT
• SCREENED PORCH
• COMMUNITY AMENITIES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in The Hideout subdivision
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with annual fee of $2,070 (approximately $172.50/month); Association fee includes snow removal and trash; Community amenities include beach rights, pool, clubhouse, tennis courts, golf, marina, fitness center, park, picnic area, dog park, recreation facilities, ski access, restaurant, billiard/game room, and maintenance

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Security: 24-hour security; Gated community
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected (circuit breakers); Propane available; Natural gas not available
• Home design: Single-family residence; Two levels
• Construction: Shingle roof; Concrete perimeter foundation
• Exterior features: Deck; Enclosed/side porch with screened area; Rolling slope lot; Irregular-shaped lot; Paved road access; Private maintained road; Has a view

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator; Electric range
• Bedrooms: Total of 6 rooms (includes bedrooms and living areas)
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating (electric); Ceiling fan(s) for cooling
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Finished walk-out basement
• Laundry & utility: Laundry on lower level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $255k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-290 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $213k (16.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $208k (18.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $208k (18.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Western Wayne SD (rural): math 39% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #165 of 539 in PA (top 31%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 340 active listings in the ZIP; 177 units permitted in Wayne County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $27k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $25k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Wayne County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$44k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($247k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $215k; 19% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $208,173 (18.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.93%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.88%
• DSCR: 0.78
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $292,613
• List price: $254,900
• Delta: -12.89%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
55 Oak Cir	0.04mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,236 (-7%)	12mo	$285,000	$127	67
84 Ridgewood Cir	0.53mi	3/3.0	2,383 (-1%)	5mo	$295,000	$124	65
61 Deerfield Rd	0.29mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,475 (+3%)	11mo	$675,000	$273	62
703 Woodridge Dr Lot 87	0.52mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,400 (-0%)	5mo	$510,000	$213	60
73 Cedarwood Ter	0.32mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,182 (-10%)	9mo	$305,000	$140	57
223 Parkwood Dr	0.29mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,562 (+6%)	14mo	$349,000	$136	56
378 Lakewood Dr	0.46mi	3/3.0	2,130 (-12%)	2mo	$143,000	$67	53
67 Cedarwood Ter	0.32mi	3/2.5	2,064 (-14%)	10mo	$299,000	$145	51
22 Woodridge Dr	0.65mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,467 (+2%)	8mo	$367,000	$149	50
122 Deerfield Rd	0.55mi	3/2.0	2,173 (-10%)	13mo	$325,000	$150	47
5 Pinecrest Ct	0.46mi	3/2.5	2,755 (+14%)	15mo	$330,000	$120	41
152 Lakeview Dr W	0.54mi	3/2.5	2,055 (-15%)	14mo	$364,000	$177	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.69×
• Total profit: $120,494
• Equity at exit: $229,634

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.9%
• Equity multiple: 6.18×
• Total profit: $369,633
• Equity at exit: $495,215

Cash invested: $71,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18436

• Home prices YoY: 16.9%
• Active inventory: 340
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,082 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,337
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$319 /mo · $3,824/yr
• Insurance: −$106
• HOA: −$173
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$437
• Net cashflow: $-290

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,449

Max offer price $212,939

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-114	-5% $-202	+0% $-290	+5% $-378	+10% $-466
Rent	-10% $-454	-5% $-372	+0% $-290	+5% $-208	+10% $-126
Rate	-1.0pp $-162	-0.5pp $-225	base $-290	+0.5pp $-356	+1.0pp $-423

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $63,725
• Closing costs: $7,647
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $173 · $2,076/yr

Listing history 43 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $254,900 Active 38 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $254,900 Active 35 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $254,900 Active 34 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $254,900 Active 33 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $254,900 Active 32 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $254,900 Active 30 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $254,900 Active 29 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $254,900 Active 27 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $254,900 Active 26 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $254,900 Active 25 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $254,900 Active 24 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $254,900 Active 20 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $254,900 Active 19 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $254,900 Active 18 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $254,900 Active 17 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $254,900 Active 16 DOM
17. 2026-05-14
    listed $254,900 Active 677-char remark
18. 2026-04-26
    price $279,000
19. 2026-04-26
    price $279,000
20. 2026-04-03
    listed $285,000 Active
21. 2023-02-23
    soldstatus $215,000 Sold
22. 2023-02-23
    soldstatus $215,000 Closed
23. 2023-02-23
    soldstatus $215,000 Closed
24. 2023-02-23
    soldstatus $215,000
25. 2023-01-30
    status Pending
26. 2023-01-27
    status Pending
27. 2023-01-16
    price $225,000
28. 2023-01-15
    price $225,000
29. 2023-01-14
    price $225,000
30. 2022-11-28
    price $239,000
31. 2022-11-25
    price $239,000
32. 2022-11-25
    price $239,000
33. 2022-10-24
    price $249,900
34. 2022-10-22
    price $249,900
35. 2022-10-22
    price $249,900
36. 2022-09-28
    listed $259,900 Active
37. 2022-09-20
    listed $259,900 Active
38. 2022-09-20
    listed $259,900 Active
39. 2022-09-20
    listed $225,000
40. 2021-12-02
    soldstatus $175,500
41. 2021-12-02
    soldstatus
42. 2021-08-11
    listed $182,500
43. 2021-08-11
    listed $182,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,981
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,278
• − Property taxes: −$3,824
• − Insurance: −$1,274
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,998
• − Management: −$1,998
• − HOA: −$2,076
• − Depreciation: −$7,415
• Taxable loss: −$7,884
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,892
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,588/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This move-in ready cabin offers a good condition with updated kitchens and bathrooms, and a well-maintained exterior. Potential for further value increase with exterior painting and interior updates.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Replace curtains — Freshens look and improves privacy
• Both Replace flooring — Modernizes and increases value
• Both Replace kitchen appliances — Modernizes and increases value
• Both Replace bathroom fixtures — Modernizes and increases value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace curtains — Freshens look and improves privacy ↑
• Both Replace flooring — Modernizes and increases value ↑
• Both Replace kitchen appliances — Modernizes and increases value ↑
• Both Replace bathroom fixtures — Modernizes and increases value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Western Wayne SD
• NCES district ID: 4226070
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $51,358
• Composite: 43.65/100
• National rank: #2964
• State rank: #165 of 539 in PA

Livability — Salem

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: The Hideout, PA
• Population (ZIP): 13,225

Population outlook (Wayne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 47,924 people
• By 2030: 46,191 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 42,815 · -10.7%
• By 2050: 39,873 · -16.8%
• By 2075: 34,556 · -27.9%
• By 2100: 28,358 · -40.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Scotch-Irish 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4%
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Wayne

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.1) · D 31.1% · R 68.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.8pp toward R · 2008: -12.3pp · 2024: -37.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.1 2020: R+33.6 2016: R+39.7 2012: R+20.9 2008: R+12.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 47.95%
• Current HPI: 331.9645
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+39.7% since first listed

27 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Listed $254,900 PWMLS
• 2026-04-26 Price Changed $279,000 GSBR as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2026-04-26 Price Changed $279,000 PMAR
• 2026-04-03 Listed $285,000 PMAR
• 2023-02-23 Sold (MLS) $215,000 PWMLS
• 2023-02-23 Sold (MLS) $215,000 PMAR
• 2023-02-23 Sold (MLS) $215,000 PWMLS
• 2023-02-23 Sold (MLS) $215,000 GLVRMLS
• 2023-01-30 Pending — PWMLS
• 2023-01-27 Pending — GLVRMLS
• 2023-01-16 Price Changed $225,000 PWMLS
• 2023-01-15 Price Changed $225,000 GLVRMLS
• 2023-01-14 Price Changed $225,000 PMAR
• 2022-11-28 Price Changed $239,000 PWMLS
• 2022-11-25 Price Changed $239,000 GLVRMLS
• 2022-11-25 Price Changed $239,000 PMAR
• 2022-10-24 Price Changed $249,900 PWMLS
• 2022-10-22 Price Changed $249,900 GLVRMLS
• 2022-10-22 Price Changed $249,900 PMAR
• 2022-09-28 Listed $259,900 GLVRMLS
• 2022-09-20 Listed $225,000 PWMLS
• 2022-09-20 Listed $259,900 PMAR
• 2022-09-20 Listed $259,900 PWMLS
• 2021-12-02 Sold (MLS) — PWMLS
• 2021-12-02 Sold (MLS) $175,500 PWMLS
• 2021-08-11 Listed $182,500 PWMLS
• 2021-08-11 Listed $182,500 PWMLS