5835 Golden Cove Rd · Cove, TX 77523

$202,600

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,166 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 62 Days on market

Built 2017 6,490 sqft lot $174/sqft · 10% below area Est $225k · 10% under $29/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.0/15.0
• Cash flow +9.4/30.0
• Schools +6.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• DSCR +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Move-in ready three-bedroom, two-bathroom home in the desirable Joseph's Cove community. This residence features an inviting open floor plan that creates a seamless flow throughout the main living areas. The functional kitchen is well-equipped for cooking and entertaining, boasting stylish granite countertops and modern stainless-steel appliances. The primary bedroom offers a spacious retreat, complete with a large walk-in closet for ample storage. Outdoor living is made easy with a private, fully fenced backyard, providing a secure space for entertaining or pets. Designed to accommodate a variety of lifestyles, this home combines comfort with a practical layout. Schedule your private showing today!

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Walk-in closet
• Granite countertops

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS-STEEL APPLIANCES
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• FULLY FENCED BACKYARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $203k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-146 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $177k (12.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $162k (20.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $162k (20.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#766 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Barbers Hill ISD (rural): math 72% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #12 of 826 in TX (top 2%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 776 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 629 units permitted in Chambers County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 16% of the median local income ($124k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Chambers County population projected at +46% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 62 days — a 6% lower offer ($190k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 9y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $12k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $162,044 (20.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 62 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.43%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.08%
• DSCR: 0.86
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $225,158
• List price: $202,600
• Delta: -10.02%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5834 Golden Cove Rd	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,166 (0%)	2mo	$215,000	$184	97
6138 Hidden Cove Rd	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,166 (0%)	12mo	$220,000	$189	77
6126 Hidden Cove Rd	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,166 (0%)	14mo	$218,000	$187	76
6119 Coral Cove Rd	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,166 (0%)	19mo	$220,000	$189	73
5943 Snapping Turtle Rd	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,335 (+14%)	2mo	$225,000	$169	67
6022 Treasure Cove Rd	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,335 (+14%)	9mo	$239,900	$180	61
6023 Treasure Cove Rd	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,335 (+14%)	12mo	$235,000	$176	58
5814 Rainbow Rd	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,335 (+14%)	20mo	$235,000	$176	56
5831 Littoral Rd	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,335 (+14%)	7mo	$233,900	$175	53
5806 Sapphire Lagoon Rd	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,335 (+14%)	13mo	$230,000	$172	52
5707 Rainbow Rd	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,335 (+14%)	19mo	$207,000	$155	52
8431 Liberty Sky Rd	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,335 (+14%)	20mo	$249,900	$187	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.42% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-41,379
• Equity at exit: $30,208

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.21×
• Total profit: $-44,969
• Equity at exit: $17,517

Cash invested: $56,728 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77523

• Home prices YoY: -31.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 776
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,620 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,062
• Tax from tax record: −$250 /mo · $2,999/yr
• Insurance: −$84
• HOA: −$29
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$340
• Net cashflow: $-146

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,805

Max offer price $176,868

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,650
• Closing costs: $6,078
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5815 Littoral Rd Baytown, TX	3.0	2.0	1305	$1,845	$1.41	20d	1	0.38mi
55 Cotton Bayou Cir Cove, TX	3.0	2.0	952	$1,195	$1.26	3d	1	0.71mi
55 Cotton Bayou Cir Cove, TX	3.0	2.0	952	$1,195	$1.26	17d	1	0.71mi
16 Cotton Bayou Cir Cove, TX	3.0	1.0	784	$1,095	$1.40	3d	1	0.77mi
16 Cotton Bayou Cir Cove, TX	3.0	1.0	784	$1,095	$1.40	44d	1	0.77mi
21 Cotton Bayou Cir Cove, TX	3.0	2.0	1216	$1,195	$0.98	15d	1	0.77mi
21 Cotton Bayou Cir Cove, TX	3.0	2.0	1216	$1,195	$0.98	3d	1	0.77mi
62 Cotton Bayou Cir Cove, TX	3.0	2.0	868	$1,095	$1.26	4d	1	0.82mi
62 Cotton Bayou Cir Cove, TX	3.0	2.0	868	$1,095	$1.26	3d	1	0.82mi
8017 FM 3180 Rd Baytown, TX	2.0	2.0	1081	$1,450	$1.34	44d	1	0.88mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $29 · $348/yr

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $202,600 Active 62 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $202,600 Active 61 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $202,600 Active 60 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $202,600 Active 59 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $202,600 Active 57 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $210,000 Active 53 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $210,000 Active 52 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $210,000 Active 51 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $210,000 Active 48 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $210,000 Active 47 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $210,000 Active 46 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $210,000 Active 45 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $210,000 Active 44 DOM
14. 2026-05-15
    price $210,000 708-char remark

    Show marketing remark (708 chars)

    Move-in ready three-bedroom, two-bathroom home in the desirable Joseph's Cove community. This residence features an inviting open floor plan that creates a seamless flow throughout the main living areas. The functional kitchen is well-equipped for cooking and entertaining, boasting stylish granite countertops and modern stainless-steel appliances. The primary bedroom offers a spacious retreat, complete with a large walk-in closet for ample storage. Outdoor living is made easy with a private, fully fenced backyard, providing a secure space for entertaining or pets. Designed to accommodate a variety of lifestyles, this home combines comfort with a practical layout. Schedule your private showing today!

15. 2026-04-17
    listed $214,900 Active 708-char remark

    Show marketing remark (708 chars)

    Move-in ready three-bedroom, two-bathroom home in the desirable Joseph's Cove community. This residence features an inviting open floor plan that creates a seamless flow throughout the main living areas. The functional kitchen is well-equipped for cooking and entertaining, boasting stylish granite countertops and modern stainless-steel appliances. The primary bedroom offers a spacious retreat, complete with a large walk-in closet for ample storage. Outdoor living is made easy with a private, fully fenced backyard, providing a secure space for entertaining or pets. Designed to accommodate a variety of lifestyles, this home combines comfort with a practical layout. Schedule your private showing today!

16. 2021-06-11
    soldstatus
17. 2021-06-10
    soldstatus Sold 347-char remark

    Show marketing remark (347 chars)

    Charming one-story home featuring 3 bedrooms, 2 baths and an attached garage. The upgraded kitchen includes granite countertops, tiled backsplash and opens to the family room. Brand new flooring throughout includes waterproof luxury vinyl plank and carpet. Landscaping has been added to the front and backyard making it a great space to entertain.

18. 2021-06-02
    status Pending 347-char remark

    Show marketing remark (347 chars)

    Charming one-story home featuring 3 bedrooms, 2 baths and an attached garage. The upgraded kitchen includes granite countertops, tiled backsplash and opens to the family room. Brand new flooring throughout includes waterproof luxury vinyl plank and carpet. Landscaping has been added to the front and backyard making it a great space to entertain.

19. 2021-05-21
    status Option Pending 347-char remark

    Show marketing remark (347 chars)

    Charming one-story home featuring 3 bedrooms, 2 baths and an attached garage. The upgraded kitchen includes granite countertops, tiled backsplash and opens to the family room. Brand new flooring throughout includes waterproof luxury vinyl plank and carpet. Landscaping has been added to the front and backyard making it a great space to entertain.

20. 2021-05-18
    listed $197,000 Active 347-char remark

    Show marketing remark (347 chars)

    Charming one-story home featuring 3 bedrooms, 2 baths and an attached garage. The upgraded kitchen includes granite countertops, tiled backsplash and opens to the family room. Brand new flooring throughout includes waterproof luxury vinyl plank and carpet. Landscaping has been added to the front and backyard making it a great space to entertain.

21. 2017-10-30
    soldstatus Sold
22. 2017-10-03
    status Pending, Continue to Show
23. 2017-08-14
    status Pending
24. 2017-07-21
    listed $163,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,999 · $250/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,708 · $309/mo
• Expected delta: +$708/yr (+$59/mo · 23.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 69% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,445
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,349
• − Property taxes: −$2,999
• − Insurance: −$1,013
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,556
• − Management: −$1,556
• − HOA: −$348
• − Depreciation: −$5,894
• Taxable loss: −$5,269
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,265
• After-tax cash flow: $-483/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Barbers Hill ISD
• NCES district ID: 4809450
• Math proficiency: 72% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $87,257
• Composite: 61.73/100
• National rank: #737
• State rank: #12 of 826 in TX

Livability — Cove

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #766
• US rank: #13996

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Chambers County · 30,186 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 30,186
• Household income: $124,188
• Rent vs Own: 18.7% rent · 81.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 549.0

Population outlook (Chambers County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 46,946 people
• By 2030: 51,094 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 59,578 · +26.9%
• By 2050: 68,318 · +45.5%
• By 2075: 90,485 · +92.7%
• By 2100: 104,885 · +123.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 11% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 17%

Political lean MEDSL · Chambers

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+65.6) · D 16.8% · R 82.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.4pp toward R · 2008: -51.2pp · 2024: -65.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+65.6 2020: R+61.7 2016: R+62.1 2012: R+61.1 2008: R+51.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.33%
• Current HPI: 222.6999
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.42%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+28.1% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $210,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-17 Listed $214,900 HARMLS
• 2021-06-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-06-10 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2021-06-02 Pending — HARMLS
• 2021-05-21 Pending — HARMLS
• 2021-05-18 Listed $197,000 HARMLS
• 2017-10-30 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2017-10-03 Pending — HARMLS
• 2017-08-14 Pending — HARMLS
• 2017-07-21 Listed $163,900 HARMLS

Property tax history

+24.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,999 · -5.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.