14851 Jeffrey Rd #145 · Irvine, CA 92618

$425,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Manufactured · 93 Days on market

Built 2025 $295/sqft · 58% above area

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.9/10.0
• Appreciation +5.3/10.0
• DSCR +5.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

BRAND NEW HIGHLY UPGRADED HOME, Don’t miss this rare opportunity. 2-bedroom plus den, 2-bath home in The Meadows, one of Irvine’s most desirable 55+ communities. Fully completed and ready for immediate occupancy, this thoughtfully designed home features high ceilings, quartz countertops, a stainless-steel appliance package, and luxury vinyl plank flooring throughout the main living areas. Enjoy relaxing on the covered front porch—perfect for morning coffee or evening unwinding—along with the convenience of a full-length covered carport for up to 3 cars and a brand-new concrete driveway. Situated on an oversized lot, the property offers exceptional outdoor potential with space for a custom side deck and garden. Additional highlights include central air conditioning and heating, an open-concept kitchen and living area, and a spacious den ideal for a home office or guest space. Residents also enjoy a pet-friendly environment and access to active lifestyle amenities such as clubhouse, banquet facilities, billiards, pool, SPA, fitness center, BBQ area and RV parking lot. Community is located right across from Oak Creek Gold Course.

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Rv parking lot
• Oversized lot

Tags

• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• FULL-LENGTH COVERED CARPORT
• BRAND-NEW CONCRETE DRIVEWAY
• OVERSIZED LOT
• CUSTOM SIDE DECK
• RV PARKING LOT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $425k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $278 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $407k (4.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $387k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 1.2% in Irvine — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#100 in CA, #3,537 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, commute A+; Watch: health & safety C-, cost of living F.
• Irvine Unified (urban): math 74% / reading 80% proficiency, ranked #31 of 517 in CA (top 6%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 10% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.1%/yr); 455 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 6,974 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (3,839 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($146k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $3k appreciation (0.6% local appreciation)).
• Orange County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (0.6% appreciation + 2.1% rent growth), your $119k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 93 days — a 9% lower offer ($387k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $175k; list at $425k implies a 143% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $386,750 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 93 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.08%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.81%
• DSCR: 1.12
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $269,474
• List price: $425,000
• Delta: 57.71%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14851 Jeffrey Rd #17	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,440 (0%)	8mo	$297,000	$206	93
14851 Jeffrey Rd #66	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,440 (0%)	8mo	$263,000	$183	93
14851 Jeffrey Rd #241	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (0%)	3mo	$140,000	$97	93
14851 Jeffrey Rd #135	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (0%)	6mo	$205,000	$142	90
14851 Jeffrey #334	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (0%)	7mo	$178,000	$124	89
14851 Jeffrey #222	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (0%)	11mo	$227,500	$158	86
14851 Jeffrey Rd #38	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,540 (+7%)	3mo	$268,000	$174	86
14851 Jeffrey Rd #352	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,512 (+5%)	7mo	$302,500	$200	86
14851 Jeffrey #269	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,608 (+12%)	0mo	$356,000	$221	80
14851 Jeffrey Rd #298	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,396 (-3%)	12mo	$180,000	$129	80
14851 Jeffery Rd #72	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,512 (+5%)	9mo	$214,000	$142	79
14851 Jeffrey Rd #25	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,536 (+7%)	6mo	$195,000	$127	79

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.64% appreciation · 2.14% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.12×
• Total profit: $14,862
• Equity at exit: $137,234

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.78×
• Total profit: $92,791
• Equity at exit: $176,446

Cash invested: $119,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92618

• Home prices YoY: 0.1%
• Rents YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 455
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,070 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,229
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$531 /mo · $6,375/yr
• Insurance: −$177
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$855
• Net cashflow: $278

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,718

Max offer price $425,000

Occupancy floor 88%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $106,250
• Closing costs: $12,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5 Locust Irvine, CA	3.0	2.5	1517	$4,495	$2.96	20d	1	0.27mi
34 Elksford Ave Irvine, CA	2.0	2.0	1078	$3,280	$3.04	43d	1	0.27mi
4 Austin Irvine, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	803	$2,950	$3.67	1d	5	0.30mi
5011 Greencap Ave Irvine, CA	3.0	2.0	1216	$4,400	$3.62	4d	1	0.31mi
51 Golden Glen St #1 Irvine, CA	3.0	2.0	1048	$3,700	$3.53	7d	1	0.32mi
31 Golden Glen St Irvine, CA	2.0	2.0	1048	$3,250	$3.10	11d	1	0.35mi
5151 Walnut Ave #29 Irvine, CA	2.0	3.0	1142	$3,400	$2.98	43d	1	0.43mi
5101 Chateau Cir Irvine, CA	3.0	2.0	1650	$4,800	$2.91	24d	1	0.44mi
11 Eccelstone Cir Irvine, CA	3.0	2.0	1480	$4,795	$3.24	24d	1	0.50mi
15431 Lorraine Way Irvine, CA	3.0	2.0	1450	$4,500	$3.10	24d	1	0.52mi
8 Albany Irvine, CA	2.0	1.5	1011	$3,100	$3.07	7d	1	0.53mi
1300 Hayes St Irvine, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	956	$3,865	$4.04	2d	23	0.59mi
43 Alderwood #69 Irvine, CA	3.0	1.5	1220	$3,700	$3.03	20d	1	0.62mi
26 Elderglen Irvine, CA	3.0	2.0	1104	$4,150	$3.76	20d	1	0.64mi
4642 Charnock Dr Irvine, CA	4.0	2.0	1156	$4,800	$4.15	43d	1	0.68mi
78 Rose Arch #21 Irvine, CA	2.0	2.0	1300	$3,950	$3.04	43d	1	0.72mi
1 Autumn Oak Irvine, CA	3.0	2.0	1538	$5,200	$3.38	18d	1	0.72mi
63 Wildwood Irvine, CA	2.0	1.0	928	$2,850	$3.07	43d	1	0.72mi
19 Wildwood #6 Irvine, CA	2.0	1.0	928	$3,000	$3.23	3d	1	0.75mi
88 Painted Trellis Irvine, CA	3.0	2.5	1559	$4,500	$2.89	43d	1	0.75mi
145 Huntington Irvine, CA	3.0	2.5	1224	$3,900	$3.19	43d	1	0.76mi
317 Huntington Irvine, CA	2.0	2.0	1000	$3,100	$3.10	13d	1	0.77mi
30 Dragonfly Irvine, CA	2.0	2.5	1068	$3,800	$3.56	24d	1	0.77mi
86 Strawberry Grv Irvine, CA	3.0	3.5	1658	$4,500	$2.71	43d	1	0.78mi
86 Strawberry Grv Irvine, CA	3.0	3.5	1658	$4,450	$2.68	18d	1	0.78mi
49 E Yale Loop #26 Irvine, CA	3.0	2.0	1471	$4,300	$2.92	24d	1	0.79mi
365 Huntington #189 Irvine, CA	3.0	2.5	1224	$3,750	$3.06	43d	1	0.79mi
94 Strawberry Grv Irvine, CA	3.0	2.5	1559	$4,500	$2.89	43d	1	0.80mi
72 Cartier Aisle Irvine, CA	3.0	3.0	1764	$4,200	$2.38	11d	1	0.80mi
4 Van Buren #313 Irvine, CA	2.0	2.0	903	$3,300	$3.65	12d	1	0.82mi
29 Autumn Oak Irvine, CA	2.0	1.0	928	$2,950	$3.18	7d	1	0.82mi
104 Cartier Aisle Irvine, CA	3.0	3.0	1764	$4,350	$2.47	3d	1	0.86mi
16 Brookmont #85 Irvine, CA	2.0	2.0	1194	$4,000	$3.35	18d	1	0.87mi
62 Emerald Clover Irvine, CA	3.0	3.0	1611	$4,800	$2.98	7d	1	0.88mi
30 Sunfish #44 Irvine, CA	2.0	2.0	990	$4,000	$4.04	3d	1	0.88mi
8 Hollowglen Irvine, CA	2.0	1.5	1037	$3,345	$3.23	43d	1	0.88mi
144 Velvet Flower Irvine, CA	3.0	3.0	1611	$5,000	$3.10	7d	1	0.89mi
13 Brookmont #60 Irvine, CA	2.0	2.0	1230	$4,300	$3.50	7d	1	0.90mi
21 Tarocco Irvine, CA	2.0	2.0	951	$3,200	$3.36	19d	1	0.90mi
130 Cartier Aisle Irvine, CA	3.0	3.0	1764	$12,000	$6.80	1d	1	0.91mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $425,000 Active 93 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $425,000 Active 92 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $425,000 Active 91 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $425,000 Active 90 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $425,000 Active 88 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $425,000 Active 87 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $445,000 Active 84 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $445,000 Active 83 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $445,000 Active 82 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $445,000 Active 79 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $445,000 Active 78 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $445,000 Active 77 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $445,000 Active 76 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $445,000 Active 75 DOM
15. 2026-03-17
    listed $445,000 Active 1168-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1168 chars)

    BRAND NEW HIGHLY UPGRADED HOME, Don’t miss this rare opportunity. 2-bedroom plus den, 2-bath home in The Meadows, one of Irvine’s most desirable 55+ communities. Fully completed and ready for immediate occupancy, this thoughtfully designed home features high ceilings, quartz countertops, a stainless-steel appliance package, and luxury vinyl plank flooring throughout the main living areas. Enjoy relaxing on the covered front porch—perfect for morning coffee or evening unwinding—along with the convenience of a full-length covered carport for up to 3 cars and a brand-new concrete driveway. Situated on an oversized lot, the property offers exceptional outdoor potential with space for a custom side deck and garden. Additional highlights include central air conditioning and heating, an open-concept kitchen and living area, and a spacious den ideal for a home office or guest space. Residents also enjoy a pet-friendly environment and access to active lifestyle amenities such as clubhouse, banquet facilities, billiards, pool, SPA, fitness center, BBQ area and RV parking lot. Community is located right across from Oak Creek Gold Course.

16. 2025-04-18
    soldstatus $175,000 Closed Sale 645-char remark

    Show marketing remark (645 chars)

    Welcome to The Meadows Community. The Meadows is a Private 55+ Senior Community in Irvine with a beautiful and lush park like setting. This home is over 1500 sq ft and features 2 bedrooms 2 bathrooms. You’ll love the large family room and separate living room area. The kitchen is large with plenty of cabinets and counter space plus this kitchen opens up to the living room. This property is perfect for someone looking to upgrade to their exact liking. This property also includes a covered patio perfect for lounging or entertaining, a grass area perfect for gardening and 2 Sheds. There are NO PROPERTY TAXES. Water and Trash included.

17. 2025-03-17
    listed $190,000 Active 645-char remark

    Show marketing remark (645 chars)

    Welcome to The Meadows Community. The Meadows is a Private 55+ Senior Community in Irvine with a beautiful and lush park like setting. This home is over 1500 sq ft and features 2 bedrooms 2 bathrooms. You’ll love the large family room and separate living room area. The kitchen is large with plenty of cabinets and counter space plus this kitchen opens up to the living room. This property is perfect for someone looking to upgrade to their exact liking. This property also includes a covered patio perfect for lounging or entertaining, a grass area perfect for gardening and 2 Sheds. There are NO PROPERTY TAXES. Water and Trash included.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥91°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $48,842
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,807
• − Property taxes: −$6,375
• − Insurance: −$2,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,907
• − Management: −$3,907
• − Depreciation: −$12,364
• Taxable loss: −$3,643
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$874
• After-tax cash flow: $4,214/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Irvine Unified
• NCES district ID: 0684500
• Math proficiency: 74% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 80% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $92,078
• Composite: 69.17/100
• National rank: #319
• State rank: #31 of 517 in CA

Livability — Irvine

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #100
• US rank: #3537

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C Health & safety C- User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Irvine, CA
• County: Orange County · 3,096,323 people
• City population: 287,839
• Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
• Population (ZIP): 66,126
• Household income: $145,731
• Rent vs Own: 59.5% rent · 40.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 4078.0

Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,477,456 people
• By 2030: 3,613,117 · +3.9%
• By 2040: 3,835,945 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 3,968,736 · +14.1%
• By 2075: 4,097,053 · +17.8%
• By 2100: 3,903,633 · +12.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: Asian 48% White 33% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 10% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Romanian 2% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 42% · China, South Korea, Canada
• Languages at home: 44% English-only · Chinese 15% Other Indo-European 10% Korean 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Orange

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.7% · R 47.1% · Other 3.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +5.2pp toward D · 2008: -2.6pp · 2024: 2.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+2.6 2020: D+9.0 2016: D+7.7 2012: R+8.3 2008: R+2.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.64%
• Current HPI: 441.9409
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.14%
• Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+134.2% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-17 Listed $445,000 CRMLS
• 2025-04-18 Sold (MLS) $175,000 CRMLS
• 2025-03-17 Listed $190,000 CRMLS