5160 Pony Express Trl #16 · Pollock Pines, CA 95709

$49,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 348 sqft · Manufactured public records · 101 Days on market

Built 1978

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Opportunity awaits in the heart of Camino! Located in a desirable 55+ Senior Park, this double-wide fixer-upper offers 2 bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms, plus a versatile flex space that could easily serve as a 3rd bedroom, home office or hobby room. With a little vision and elbow grease, this property has the potential to truly shine. Enjoy year-round comfort with Central Heat and A/C, along with the added peace of mind and convenience that the hard-wired Generac system provides. An accessible ramp makes for easy entry and the large storage shed offers plenty of space for tools and other personal belongings. There's also ample parking for you and your guests. The monthly space rent is $745 whic

Key facts

• Flex space
• Ample parking
• Central heat and a/c

Tags

• DOUBLE-WIDE FIXER-UPPER
• FLEX SPACE
• CENTRAL HEAT AND A/C
• HARD-WIRED GENERAC SYSTEM
• LARGE STORAGE SHED
• AMPLE PARKING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located at 5160 Pony Express Trl #16, Camino, CA 95709
• HOA & community: No homeowners association; Located in a senior community; Land lease: No (land lease amount listed separately)

Exterior

• Parking: Assigned parking; Off-street parking; Guest parking available; No garage
• Utilities: Cable available; Internet available; Propane; Electric: generator and 220V in laundry; Water: public via water district; Sewer: septic system
• Home design: Manufactured home in park; Double-wide; Originally built in 1978; Home is described as fixer/original condition
• Construction: Wood skirting; Shingle/composition roof; Manufacturer: Skyline
• Exterior features: Storage shed(s); Landscape miscellaneous

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas cook top; Range hood; Ice maker; Dishwasher; Double oven; Ceramic and laminate counters
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (possible 3rd bedroom option)
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Linoleum; Wood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Bathrooms include tub and shower stall(s)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Accessible approach with ramp; Porch with steps and railing; Storage area
• Laundry & utility: Laundry hookups only; Laundry located inside the home (inside room/area)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $49k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $881 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $49k).
• Recommended offer: $45k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 27.9% vs local median 3.8% in Pollock Pines — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#864 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A-; Watch: schools D, crime D, amenities F.
• Pollock Pines Elementary (town): math 30% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #277 of 517 in CA (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 48 active listings in the ZIP; 437 units permitted in El Dorado County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $339 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• El Dorado County population projected to shrink 3% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 101 days — a 9% lower offer ($45k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $44,590 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 101 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 27.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 77.06%
• DSCR: 4.43
• GRM: 2.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 77.0%
• Equity multiple: 4.51×
• Total profit: $48,173
• Equity at exit: $7,306

10-year hold

• IRR: 80.6%
• Equity multiple: 9.32×
• Total profit: $114,195
• Equity at exit: $4,237

Cash invested: $13,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95709

• Home prices YoY: -28.7%
• Active inventory: 48
• Price-to-rent: 2.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,491 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$257
• Tax from tax record: −$19 /mo · $232/yr
• Insurance: −$20
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$313
• Net cashflow: $881

Break-even live

Break-even rent $376

Max offer price $49,000

Occupancy floor 36%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,250
• Closing costs: $1,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $49,000 Active 101 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $49,000 Active 100 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $49,000 Active 99 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $49,000 Active 98 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $49,000 Active 96 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $49,000 Active 95 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $49,000 Active 92 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $49,000 Active 91 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $49,000 Active 90 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $59,900 Active 86 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $59,900 Active 85 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $59,900 Active 84 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $59,900 Active 83 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $232 · $19/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $372 · $31/mo
• Expected delta: +$141/yr (+$12/mo · 60.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 5 d/yr ≥97°F today · 12 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 26 unhealthy d/yr today · 31 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,890
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,745
• − Property taxes: −$232
• − Insurance: −$245
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,431
• − Management: −$1,431
• − Depreciation: −$1,425
• Taxable income: $10,381
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,491
• After-tax cash flow: $8,082/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pollock Pines Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0631290
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $56,474
• Composite: 30.11/100
• National rank: #6334
• State rank: #277 of 517 in CA

Livability — Pollock Pines

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #864
• US rank: #23561

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime D Employment B- Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pollock Pines, CA
• Population (ZIP): 5,844

Population outlook (El Dorado County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 191,666 people
• By 2030: 193,662 · +1.0%
• By 2040: 192,583 · +0.5%
• By 2050: 185,904 · -3.0%
• By 2075: 169,543 · -11.5%
• By 2100: 139,623 · -27.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 9% Asian 2% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Lithuanian 4% Portuguese 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · El Dorado

• 2024 margin: R (+12.0) · D 42.6% · R 54.6% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.5pp toward R · 2008: -10.5pp · 2024: -12.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+12.0 2020: R+8.8 2016: R+13.9 2012: R+18.2 2008: R+10.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -107.84%
• Current HPI: 267.8967
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Property tax history

+0.2%/yr

Latest (2023): $232 · -0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.