3404 Cape Cod Ln · Midland, TX 79707

$285,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,112 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 14 Days on market

Built 1976 7,667 sqft lot Est $370k · 23% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.5/30.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

CHARMING HOME IN A GREAT NEIGHBORHOOD! HUGE LIVING AREA WITH BRICK FIREPLACE AND VAULTED WOOD BEAM CEILING! BREAKFAST DINING! UPDATED KITCHEN WITH GRANITE COUNTERTOPS AND DOUBLE OVENS! SPACIOUS MASTER SUITE WITH DUAL VANITIES AND SEPARATE CLOSETS – THE ARCHED ENTRYWAYS GIVE IT SO MUCH CHARACTER! AMPLE BEDROOMS WITH AMAZING CLOSETS! COVERED BACK PATIO, LARGE YARD AND STORAGE SHED! TWO CAR GARAGE! LOCATED IN THE CENTER OF TOWN WITH QUICK ACCESS TO EVERYTHING! WELL-KEPT! MAKE THIS HOME YOURS!

Key facts

• 7,667 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1976

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $285k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $12 ($143/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $258k (9.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $258k (9.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 4.7% in Midland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#57 in TX, #2,192 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, commute D+, amenities D.
• Midland ISD (urban): math 34% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #477 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Parker El (math 42% / reading 36%, grade F, #1,651 of 4,322 statewide, top 39%, 567 students, 52% FRL); Alamo J H (math 23% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,156 of 1,662 statewide, top 71%, 865 students, 62% FRL); Legacy H S (math 37% / reading 3%, grade F, #1,397 of 1,632 statewide, top 87%, 2,504 students, 41% FRL) — zoned schools at 52% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.5%/yr); 324 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,504 units permitted in Midland County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($100k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Midland County population projected at +83% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $257,621 (9.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.18%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $369,600
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4201 Merrill Dr	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,828 (-13%)	13mo	$320,000	$175	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.45% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-41,537
• Equity at exit: $42,494

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.76×
• Total profit: $-18,783
• Equity at exit: $24,642

Cash invested: $79,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79707

• Rents YoY: 4.5%
• Active inventory: 324
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,576 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,495
• Tax from tax record: −$410 /mo · $4,919/yr
• Insurance: −$119
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$541
• Net cashflow: $12

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,561

Max offer price $285,000

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $173	-5% $93	+0% $12	+5% $-69	+10% $-149
Rent	-10% $-192	-5% $-90	+0% $12	+5% $114	+10% $215
Rate	-1.0pp $155	-0.5pp $84	base $12	+0.5pp $-62	+1.0pp $-137

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $71,250
• Closing costs: $8,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3317 Providence Dr Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1810	$2,500	$1.38	45d	1	0.08mi
3300 Durant Dr Midland, TX	4.0	3.5	2982	$3,650	$1.22	15d	1	0.34mi
3300 Durant Dr Midland, TX	3.0	3.5	2982	$4,400	$1.48	45d	1	0.34mi
3315 Godfrey St Midland, TX	1.0–3.0	1.5–4.0	1764	$2,800	$1.59	15d	8	0.38mi
3209 W Wadley Ave Unit A Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1512	$2,500	$1.65	45d	1	0.44mi
3326 W Dengar Ave Midland, TX	4.0	3.0	2000	$2,500	$1.25	23d	1	0.52mi
4027 Angelina Dr Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	2228	$2,900	$1.30	15d	1	0.59mi
2900 Goddard Pl Midland, TX	4.0	3.0	2570	$3,400	$1.32	15d	1	0.60mi
2900 Goddard Pl Midland, TX	4.0	3.0	2570	$3,400	$1.32	23d	1	0.60mi
3302 Fannin Ave Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1533	$2,000	$1.30	23d	1	0.61mi
11 Marchelle Ct Midland, TX	4.0	2.0	2714	$3,200	$1.18	45d	1	0.64mi
3134 Tealwood Pl Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1974	$2,500	$1.27	23d	1	0.66mi
2615 Haynes Ave Unit B Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1635	$1,950	$1.19	15d	1	0.76mi
4601 Lanham St #11 Midland, TX	3.0	2.5	1420	$2,500	$1.76	23d	1	0.84mi
2603 W Wadley Ave Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1600	$1,900	$1.19	23d	1	0.84mi
4419 Fairgate Dr Midland, TX	2.0	2.0	1620	$1,800	$1.11	23d	1	0.89mi
2801 Exeter Ave Midland, TX	4.0	2.5	2394	$2,900	$1.21	45d	1	0.90mi
3214 Mark Ln Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1836	$2,550	$1.39	45d	1	1.02mi
3114 Shell Ave Midland, TX	4.0	2.0	2260	$2,999	$1.33	23d	1	1.07mi
3245 Preston Dr Midland, TX	3.0	2.5	1608	$2,000	$1.24	45d	1	1.11mi
2404 Goddard Ct Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1894	$3,100	$1.64	23d	1	1.11mi
2818 West Loop 250 N Midland, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1176	$2,268	$1.93	15d	16	1.12mi
2404 Northtown Ct Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1994	$2,700	$1.35	15d	1	1.13mi
3208 Elma Dr Midland, TX	3.0	2.5	1645	$2,700	$1.64	45d	1	1.16mi
1813 McDonald St Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1680	$2,249	$1.34	45d	1	1.18mi
3619 Boyd Ave Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1700	$2,100	$1.24	15d	1	1.25mi
4801 Whitman Dr Midland, TX	4.0	2.5	2158	$3,000	$1.39	45d	1	1.26mi
4801 Whitman Dr Midland, TX	4.0	2.5	2158	$2,800	$1.30	23d	1	1.26mi
4801 Whitman Dr Midland, TX	4.0	2.5	2158	$2,800	$1.30	15d	1	1.26mi
4704 Dentcrest Dr Unit A Midland, TX	2.0	2.0	1500	$1,850	$1.23	45d	1	1.30mi
3705 Dentcrest Dr Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,800	$1.28	15d	1	1.30mi
3309 Edgemont Dr Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1600	$2,995	$1.87	23d	1	1.30mi
3306 Oakmont Dr Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1791	$2,500	$1.40	23d	1	1.33mi
2100 W Wadley Ave Unit L1 Midland, TX	3.0	3.0	1854	$2,300	$1.24	45d	1	1.34mi
4425 Humble Ave Midland, TX	4.0	2.0	1466	$2,250	$1.53	23d	1	1.35mi
4425 Humble Ave Midland, TX	4.0	2.0	1466	$2,150	$1.47	15d	1	1.35mi
4713 Dentcrest Dr Unit A Midland, TX	2.0	2.0	1400	$3,250	$2.32	23d	1	1.36mi
2606 Keswick Cv Midland, TX	3.0	2.5	2027	$2,600	$1.28	15d	1	1.40mi
2302 Wydewood Dr Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1748	$2,500	$1.43	45d	1	1.42mi
3226 Whittle Way Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1850	$4,250	$2.30	23d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-03-19
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-05
   listed Active Under Contract
3. 2026-03-02
   listed $285,000
4. 2011-07-26
   soldstatus
5. 1978-12-13
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,919 · $410/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,216 · $435/mo
• Expected delta: +$296/yr (+$25/mo · 6.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,915
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,964
• − Property taxes: −$4,919
• − Insurance: −$1,425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,473
• − Management: −$2,473
• − Depreciation: −$8,291
• Taxable loss: −$4,631
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,112
• After-tax cash flow: $1,255/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Midland ISD
• NCES district ID: 4830570
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $63,457
• Composite: 31.63/100
• National rank: #5938
• State rank: #477 of 826 in TX

Livability — Midland

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #57
• US rank: #2192

Category grades

Amenities D Commute D+ Cost of living A Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Midland, TX
• County: Midland County · 168,494 people
• City population: 168,494
• Metro: Midland, TX
• Population (ZIP): 40,010
• Household income: $99,886
• Rent vs Own: 40.0% rent · 60.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1919.0

Population outlook (Midland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 220,895 people
• By 2030: 253,667 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 325,498 · +47.4%
• By 2050: 404,168 · +83.0%
• By 2075: 609,802 · +176.1%
• By 2100: 760,172 · +244.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 56% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 11% Asian 5% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China, Philippines
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 14% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Midland

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.5) · D 19.3% · R 79.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.3pp toward R · 2008: -57.3pp · 2024: -60.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.5 2020: R+56.6 2016: R+55.2 2012: R+61.5 2008: R+57.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -208.65%
• Current HPI: 198.7489
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.45%
• Metro: Midland, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-19 Pending — PBBOR
• 2026-03-05 Listed — PBBOR
• 2026-03-02 Listed $285,000 PBBOR
• 2011-07-26 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1978-12-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,919 · -4.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.