518 E Kerr St · Centralia, IL 62801

$60,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,008 sqft · Other public records · 65 Days on market

Built 1963 0.29 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Well built 4 bedroom - 1 bath needing some TLC located in a quiet neighbor. Great Investor opportunity. Numerous possibilities. Home sold as is. Property includes an additional lot (80x90) with 20x10 storage shed. (Additional property tax $168.96)

Key facts

• Storage shed
• Additional lot
• 0.29 acre lot

Tags

• ADDITIONAL LOT
• STORAGE SHED

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: School bus service available; Directions: Hwy 51N (Elm St) turn right on Kerr, home located in second block on left
• HOA & community: No master association fee required

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 garage space, 1 total parking space)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; 100 amp electric service
• Home design: Detached single-family home; Split-level / Bi-level design; Fee simple ownership; Built before 1978
• Construction: Aluminum siding with frame construction; Approximately 61–70 years old; About 1,008 sq ft finished (below-grade finished area noted)
• Exterior features: Level lot; Lot dimensions approximately 160 x 80

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on main level
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms total; Master bedroom on the main level; Additional bedrooms on main and lower levels
• Flooring: Hardwood flooring in living room, dining room, and one bedroom; Luxury vinyl flooring in kitchen, master bedroom, and another bedroom; Other flooring in lower-level rooms
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating
• Interior features: 9 total rooms; Bonus room (lower level); Combined dining and living area
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $60k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $575 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $60k).
• Recommended offer: $56k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 17.8% vs local median 5.9% in Centralia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#481 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D, crime F, amenities F.
• Centralia Hsd 200 (town): math 21% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #668 of 919 in IL (top 73%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 107 active listings in the ZIP; 2 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $415 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $17k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 65 days — a 6% lower offer ($56k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 9 sale attempts since 20y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $5k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $38k; list at $60k implies a 56% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $56,400 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 65 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1963 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.79%
• Cash-on-cash: 41.05%
• DSCR: 2.83
• GRM: 4.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 37.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.60×
• Total profit: $26,897
• Equity at exit: $8,946

10-year hold

• IRR: 44.1%
• Equity multiple: 5.20×
• Total profit: $70,628
• Equity at exit: $5,188

Cash invested: $16,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 62801

• Home prices YoY: -13.9%
• Active inventory: 107
• Price-to-rent: 4.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,253 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$315
• Tax from tax record: −$76 /mo · $909/yr
• Insurance: −$25
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$263
• Net cashflow: $575

Break-even live

Break-even rent $526

Max offer price $60,000

Occupancy floor 49%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $609	-5% $592	+0% $575	+5% $558	+10% $541
Rent	-10% $476	-5% $525	+0% $575	+5% $624	+10% $674
Rate	-1.0pp $605	-0.5pp $590	base $575	+0.5pp $559	+1.0pp $543

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $15,000
• Closing costs: $1,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-05-24
   status Active
2. 2026-05-23
   status Active
3. 2026-05-14
   status Pending
4. 2026-03-28
   price $60,000
5. 2026-03-10
   listed $65,000 Active
6. 2026-02-16
   historical
7. 2026-02-16
   historical
8. 2026-02-16
   historical
9. 2026-01-08
   status Active
10. 2026-01-05
    historical
11. 2025-12-30
    price
12. 2025-12-05
    status Active
13. 2025-12-05
    historical
14. 2025-10-17
    historical Under Contract
15. 2025-08-28
    listed Active
16. 2025-01-17
    historical
17. 2025-01-17
    historical
18. 2024-10-23
    listed Active
19. 2024-09-06
    historical
20. 2024-09-05
    historical
21. 2024-06-05
    listed Active
22. 2006-11-30
    soldstatus $38,500
23. 2006-11-06
    listed $44,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $909 · $76/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,136 · $95/mo
• Expected delta: +$226/yr (+$19/mo · 24.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,039
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,361
• − Property taxes: −$909
• − Insurance: −$300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,203
• − Management: −$1,203
• − Depreciation: −$1,745
• Taxable income: $6,317
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,516
• After-tax cash flow: $5,380/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Centralia Hsd 200
• NCES district ID: 1709300
• Math proficiency: 21% ▲ 6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $34,555
• Composite: 22.43/100
• National rank: #13470
• State rank: #668 of 919 in IL

Livability — Centralia

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #481
• US rank: #9987

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Centralia, IL
• City population: 19,941
• Population (ZIP): 19,941

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 36,071 people
• By 2030: 34,598 · -4.1%
• By 2040: 31,754 · -12.0%
• By 2050: 28,912 · -19.8%
• By 2075: 22,527 · -37.5%
• By 2100: 16,455 · -54.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Black 11% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+49.5) · D 24.6% · R 74.1% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -47.5pp toward R · 2008: -2.0pp · 2024: -49.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+49.5 2020: R+46.6 2016: R+44.9 2012: R+19.2 2008: R+2.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -34.12%
• Current HPI: 211.3835
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+33.6% since first listed

23 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-24 Relisted — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-23 Relisted — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-14 Pending — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-28 Price Changed $60,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-10 Listed $65,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-16 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-16 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-16 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-08 Relisted — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-05 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-30 Price Changed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-05 Relisted — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-05 Listing Removed — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-17 Contingent — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-28 Listed — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-01-17 Listing Removed — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-01-17 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-10-23 Listed — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-09-06 Listing Removed — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-09-05 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-06-05 Listed — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-11-30 Sold (MLS) $38,500 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-11-06 Listed $44,900 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+1.7%/yr

Latest (2024): $909 · -3.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.