22610 Archibald Blair Ln · Houston, TX 77449

$195,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,500 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 37 Days on market

Built 1983 6,298 sqft lot $130/sqft · 17% below area Est $235k · 17% under $39/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +12.1/30.0
• Schools +5.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Appreciation +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0

Listing remarks

Make this lovely single-story 3 bed/2 bath home in the charming Williamsburg Colony subdivision your next place to call home! The inviting open floorplan features vaulted cathedral ceilings in the living, dining, and primary bedroom, along with an abundance of windows that fill the space with natural light. The kitchen, tucked toward the front of the home, offers granite countertops and striking blue cabinetry. With no carpet throughout, this home is both stylish and low-maintenance—perfect for entertaining and everyday living. Come see it today! Seller will not make any repairs or offer any concessions.

Key facts

• 6,298 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association managed by Crest Management; Annual association fee (paid annually) covering common areas and recreation facilities; Community pool and curbs

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 parking spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Single-story entry (living spaces located on the first floor); Built in 1983
• Construction: Brick and cement siding exterior; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Fenced backyard; Private yard; Subdivision setting; Concrete road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range; Garbage disposal; Breakfast nook (approx. 8x8)
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (approx. 14x12); Bedroom on the first floor (approx. 12x10); Bedroom on the first floor (approx. 11x10)
• Flooring: Laminate flooring; Tile flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Wood-burning fireplace; Double vanity in bathroom(s); Tub with shower; Ceiling fans; Programmable thermostat
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $195k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-43 ($-520/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $187k (3.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $192k (1.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $187k (3.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.1% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Katy ISD (suburban): math 61% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #29 of 826 in TX (top 4%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Morton Ranch J H (math 37% / reading 42%, grade F, #660 of 1,662 statewide, top 41%, 1,184 students, 75% FRL); Morton Ranch H S (math 31% / reading 55%, grade F, #713 of 1,632 statewide, top 44%, 2,718 students, 72% FRL) — zoned schools average 74% FRL vs 27% district-wide (46 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 41% at this address vs 62% district-wide (-21 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Katy ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.9%/yr); 744 active listings in the ZIP; 36 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.3%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($189k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $24k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $83k; list at $195k implies a 135% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $187,344 (3.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 4% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.03%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.95%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $234,649
• List price: $195,000
• Delta: -16.90%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
22551 Market Square Ln	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,429 (-5%)	3mo	$239,900	$168	85
22810 John Rolfe Ln	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,447 (-4%)	0mo	$275,000	$190	82
22623 Elkana Deane Ln	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,408 (-6%)	0mo	$260,000	$185	79
2403 Anthony Hay Ln	0.37mi	3/2.5	1,479 (-1%)	4mo	$248,000	$168	75
22815 Stratford House Ln	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,490 (-1%)	1mo	$249,000	$167	72
2430 Blue Reef Dr	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,507 (+0%)	1mo	$275,000	$182	72
2519 Northern Great White Ct	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,521 (+1%)	2mo	$275,000	$181	71
22506 Elkana Deane Ln	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-10%)	2mo	$242,000	$180	65
22619 Blair Manor Ln	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,365 (-9%)	1mo	$242,000	$177	63
2406 Seahorse Bend Dr	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,605 (+7%)	3mo	$280,000	$174	56
22334 Guston Hall Ln	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,349 (-10%)	2mo	$269,900	$200	47
2654 Anthony Hay Ln	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,292 (-14%)	4mo	$249,900	$193	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.27% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.54×
• Total profit: $-25,289
• Equity at exit: $44,548

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-33,234
• Equity at exit: $44,662

Cash invested: $54,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77449

• Home prices YoY: -0.5%
• Rents YoY: -2.9%
• Active inventory: 744
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,923 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,023
• Tax from tax record: −$420 /mo · $5,039/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$39
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$404
• Net cashflow: $-43

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,978

Max offer price $187,344

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $67	-5% $12	+0% $-43	+5% $-99	+10% $-154
Rent	-10% $-195	-5% $-119	+0% $-43	+5% $33	+10% $109
Rate	-1.0pp $55	-0.5pp $6	base $-43	+0.5pp $-94	+1.0pp $-145

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,750
• Closing costs: $5,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 36 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
22819 Carter Moir Ln Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1650	$1,895	$1.15	17d	1	0.17mi
22510 Leedstown Ln Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1282	$1,649	$1.29	6d	1	0.22mi
23010 Franz Rd Unit 23067 Katy, TX	2.0	2.0	1072	$1,480	$1.38	44d	1	0.29mi
23010 Franz Rd Unit 23033 Katy, TX	2.0	2.0	1116	$1,702	$1.53	11d	1	0.29mi
23010 Franz Rd Unit 2162 Katy, TX	2.0	2.0	1116	$1,678	$1.50	5d	1	0.29mi
23010 Franz Rd Unit 2112 Katy, TX	2.0	2.0	1116	$1,670	$1.50	3d	1	0.29mi
23010 Franz Rd Unit 23047 Katy, TX	2.0	2.0	1072	$1,455	$1.36	16d	1	0.29mi
22822 Capitol Landing Ln Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1702	$1,399	$0.82	22d	1	0.30mi
2020 Grandway Dr Katy, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	954	$2,013	$2.11	2d	46	0.45mi
1502 Partnership Way Unit 1539 Katy, TX	2.0	2.0	1092	$1,714	$1.57	44d	1	0.71mi
1502 Partnership Way Unit 424 Katy, TX	2.0	2.0	1207	$1,739	$1.44	6d	1	0.71mi
1502 Partnership Way Unit 2187 Katy, TX	2.0	2.0	1207	$1,731	$1.43	3d	1	0.71mi
1502 Partnership Way Unit 2174 Katy, TX	2.0	2.0	1207	$1,774	$1.47	12d	1	0.71mi
1616 Partnership Way Katy, TX	3.0	1.0–3.0	1283	$2,995	$2.33	6d	47	0.72mi
1502 Partnership Way Katy, TX	2.0	2.0	1092	$1,800	$1.65	44d	1	0.72mi
1724 Partnership Way Katy, TX	3.0	1.0–3.5	1536	$3,340	$2.17	2d	86	0.73mi
22631 Colonial Pkwy Unit 2228 Katy, TX	2.0	2.0	1195	$1,631	$1.36	3d	1	0.84mi
22631 Colonial Pkwy Unit 424 Katy, TX	2.0	2.0	1195	$1,639	$1.37	6d	1	0.84mi
22631 Colonial Pkwy Unit 22668 Katy, TX	2.0	2.0	1195	$1,663	$1.39	11d	1	0.84mi
22631 Colonial Pkwy Unit 22688 Katy, TX	2.0	2.0	1074	$1,339	$1.25	13d	1	0.84mi
22631 Colonial Pkwy Unit 22668 Katy, TX	2.0	2.0	1151	$1,740	$1.51	44d	1	0.84mi
2753 W Grand Pkwy N Katy, TX	2.0	2.0	1073	$1,799	$1.68	44d	1	0.85mi
1799 Earl of Dunmore St Katy, TX	2.0	2.0	1068	$1,670	$1.56	12d	1	0.86mi
23223 First Park Dr Unit 23256 Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1403	$2,283	$1.63	44d	1	0.87mi
23223 First Park Dr Unit 3187 Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1403	$2,240	$1.60	3d	1	0.87mi
23223 First Park Dr Unit 3174 Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1403	$2,272	$1.62	11d	1	0.87mi
22540 Merchants Way Katy, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	921	$2,041	$2.21	2d	29	0.94mi
1500 N Mason Rd Unit SNTA2 Katy, TX	2.0	2.0	1092	$1,690	$1.55	12d	1	1.07mi
23050 Morton Ranch Rd Katy, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1109	$2,609	$2.35	2d	31	1.09mi
21622 Stonecross Terrace Ln Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1778	$2,050	$1.15	25d	1	1.12mi
3206 Peek Rd Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1535	$2,279	$1.48	44d	1	1.21mi
3200 Peek Rd Katy, TX	3.0	1.0–2.0	1069	$2,351	$2.20	3d	30	1.32mi
2031 Wigmaker Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1430	$1,800	$1.26	6d	1	1.41mi
2503 Silver Trumpet Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1388	$1,791	$1.29	12d	1	1.41mi
21402 Doral Rose Ln Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1864	$1,950	$1.05	25d	1	1.45mi
23812 Colonial Pkwy Katy, TX	2.0	2.0	1069	$1,605	$1.50	44d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $39 · $468/yr

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $195,000 Active 37 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   statusdays on market $195,000 Active 36 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $195,000 Pending 35 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $195,000 Pending 34 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $195,000 Pending 32 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $195,000 Active 28 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $195,000 Active 27 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $195,000 Active 26 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $195,000 Active 23 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $195,000 Active 22 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $195,000 Active 21 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $195,000 Active 20 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $195,000 Active 19 DOM
14. 2026-05-12
    listed $219,000 Active 558-char remark
15. 2026-04-29
    historical $219,000 558-char remark
16. 2026-03-15
    historical $1,750
17. 2026-03-06
    price $1,750
18. 2026-01-01
    listed $1,800
19. 2025-12-21
    historical $1,800
20. 2025-12-18
    listed $1,800
21. 2025-11-30
    historical $1,800
22. 2025-11-09
    listed $1,800
23. 2012-05-14
    soldstatus
24. 2001-05-22
    soldstatus
25. 2001-05-01
    soldstatus $83,000
26. 1998-07-22
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,039 · $420/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,039 · $420/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,080
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,923
• − Property taxes: −$5,039
• − Insurance: −$975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,846
• − Management: −$1,846
• − HOA: −$468
• − Depreciation: −$5,673
• Taxable loss: −$3,691
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$886
• After-tax cash flow: $366/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Katy ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825170
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $90,312
• Composite: 56.59/100
• National rank: #1146
• State rank: #29 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 130,028
• Household income: $87,808
• Rent vs Own: 31.7% rent · 68.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 3088.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% Two or more races 22% Black 20% White 19% Asian 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26% Puerto Rican 1% Cuban 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 32% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 48% English-only · Spanish 40% Other Indo-European 3% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.27%
• Current HPI: 254.6622
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.86%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+134.9% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-06-12 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-28 Price Changed $195,000 HARMLS
• 2026-05-12 Listed $219,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-29 Coming Soon $219,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-15 Rental Removed $1,750 HARMLS
• 2026-03-06 Price Changed $1,750 HARMLS
• 2026-01-01 Listed for Rent $1,800 HARMLS
• 2025-12-21 Rental Removed $1,800 HARMLS
• 2025-12-18 Listed for Rent $1,800 HARMLS
• 2025-11-30 Rental Removed $1,800 HARMLS
• 2025-11-09 Listed for Rent $1,800 HARMLS
• 2012-05-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2001-05-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2001-05-01 Sold (Public Records) $83,000 Public Records
• 1998-07-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+8.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,039 · -2.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.