265 Shady Hill Cir · Roxboro, NC 27573

$209,900

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,159 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 24 Days on market

Built 1972 0.27 ac lot Est $217k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.0/30.0
• ARV discount +8.9/15.0
• Appreciation +8.5/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

This charming brick ranch offers the perfect blend of comfort and style in a quiet, established neighborhood. Featuring 3 bedrooms, 1.5 baths, and a versatile bonus room, this home provides plenty of space for everyday living, a home office, playroom, or guest area. Fresh paint throughout gives the home a bright, updated feel, while the beautiful kitchen showcases crisp white cabinetry, stainless steel appliances, and timeless appeal. Step outside to enjoy the shaded backyard complete with a cozy fire pit -- the perfect spot for relaxing evenings or entertaining family and friends. This move-in ready home is one you won't want to miss!

Key facts

• Shaded backyard
• Cozy fire pit
• Versatile bonus room

Tags

• BRICK RANCH
• VERSATILE BONUS ROOM
• SHADED BACKYARD
• COZY FIRE PIT

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area reported as 1,150; Property listed by Keller Williams Central
• HOA & community: No homeowners association; Not a senior community

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Site-built single-story home
• Construction: Brick veneer exterior; Built on a foundation consistent with site-built construction
• Exterior features: Shingle roof; Lot approximately 0.27 acres; Publicly maintained road access

Interior

• Bedrooms: Four bedrooms total, three of them on the main level
• Flooring: Carpet; Hardwood; Tile
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Heat pump; Central air conditioning; Electric cooling
• Interior features: Carpet, hardwood and tile flooring

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $210k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $105 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $174k (17.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $174k (17.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 4.5% in Roxboro — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#649 in NC) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Person County Schools (rural): math 39% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #110 of 178 in NC (top 62%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Person High (math 45% / reading 44%, grade F, #352 of 535 statewide, top 68%, 1,079 students, 60% FRL).
• Market conditions: 99 active listings in the ZIP; 113 units permitted in Person County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $16k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $15k appreciation (7.0% local appreciation)).
• Person County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (7.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $59k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$40k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($207k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 22% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $173,945 (17.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.90%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.15%
• DSCR: 1.10
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $216,733
• Comps found: 11

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
121 Clayton St	0.22mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,206 (+4%)	18mo	$228,000	$189	61
132 Lillian Ct	0.49mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,202 (+4%)	6mo	$224,488	$187	59
86 Maggie Ln	0.37mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,265 (+9%)	3mo	$219,000	$173	58
123 Landon Pl	0.51mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,202 (+4%)	8mo	$226,990	$189	56
49 Eli Ct	0.48mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,185 (+2%)	15mo	$249,900	$211	54
252 Maggie Ln	0.49mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,202 (+4%)	14mo	$225,990	$188	52
224 Landon Pl	0.61mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,202 (+4%)	7mo	$219,997	$183	52
1701 Sunset St	0.66mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,152 (-1%)	11mo	$60,000	$52	52
119 Kerr Dr	0.56mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,165 (+0%)	24mo	$165,000	$142	46
348 Maggie Ln	0.62mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,202 (+4%)	18mo	$223,100	$186	43
1712 Wall St	0.64mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,120 (-3%)	24mo	$223,000	$199	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

7.01% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.36×
• Total profit: $80,008
• Equity at exit: $145,547

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.4%
• Equity multiple: 4.87×
• Total profit: $227,351
• Equity at exit: $276,558

Cash invested: $58,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 27573

• Home prices YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 99
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,739 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,101
• Tax from tax record: −$81 /mo · $967/yr
• Insurance: −$87
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$365
• Net cashflow: $105

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,606

Max offer price $209,900

Occupancy floor 89%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,475
• Closing costs: $6,297
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-09
   status $209,900 Pending 24 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $209,900 Active 24 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $209,900 Active 23 DOM
4. 2026-06-05
   days on market $209,900 Active 21 DOM
5. 2026-06-04
   days on market $209,900 Active 19 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $209,900 Active 18 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $209,900 Active 17 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $209,900 Active 16 DOM
9. 2026-05-15
   listed $209,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $967 · $81/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,721 · $143/mo
• Expected delta: +$754/yr (+$63/mo · 78.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 22% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,873
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,758
• − Property taxes: −$967
• − Insurance: −$1,050
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,670
• − Management: −$1,670
• − Depreciation: −$6,106
• Taxable loss: −$2,347
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$563
• After-tax cash flow: $1,828/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Person County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3703630
• Math proficiency: 39% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $43,729
• Composite: 34.3/100
• National rank: #5242
• State rank: #110 of 178 in NC

Livability — Roxboro

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #649
• US rank: #23536

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing C+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 11,954
• Population (ZIP): 11,954

Population outlook (Person County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 38,577 people
• By 2030: 37,847 · -1.9%
• By 2040: 35,740 · -7.4%
• By 2050: 32,683 · -15.3%
• By 2075: 24,979 · -35.2%
• By 2100: 15,779 · -59.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 45% Black 36% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 11% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Romanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Person

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.7) · D 37.7% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.2pp toward R · 2008: -8.5pp · 2024: -23.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.7 2020: R+21.6 2016: R+17.3 2012: R+11.0 2008: R+8.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.01%
• Current HPI: 286.1496
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Listed $209,900 TMLS

Property tax history

+10.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $967 · +36.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.