3204 Sentinel Dr · Midland, TX 79701

$255,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,969 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 78 Days on market

Built 1957 0.27 ac lot $86/sqft · 19% below area Est $317k · 19% under ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.4/10.0
• 1% rule +6.6/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Location, Location, Location!! Sitting on . 273 acre on a classic Midland street! Built in 1957, this beauty is looking for someone who can bring it back to life. Investors, here's your chance to truly transform something. Come take a look!

Key facts

• 0.27 acre lot
• Built 1957
• Listed 77 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $255k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $459 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $255k).
• Recommended offer: $240k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.5% vs local median 4.7% in Midland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#57 in TX, #2,192 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, crime C-, commute D+.
• Midland ISD (urban): math 34% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #477 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 113 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 62% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,504 units permitted in Midland County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,951/mo this rent would consume 62% of the median local household income ($57k/yr) (locally 938% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Midland County population projected at +83% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 78 days — a 6% lower offer ($240k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1957 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $239,700 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 78 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1957 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.16% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.72%
• DSCR: 1.34
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $316,629
• List price: $255,000
• Delta: -19.46%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.74% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.74×
• Total profit: $-18,510
• Equity at exit: $38,021

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.95×
• Total profit: $-3,719
• Equity at exit: $22,048

Cash invested: $71,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79701

• Rents YoY: 0.7%
• Active inventory: 113
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,951 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,337
• Tax from tax record: −$428 /mo · $5,140/yr
• Insurance: −$106
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$620
• Net cashflow: $459

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,369

Max offer price $255,000

Occupancy floor 79%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $63,750
• Closing costs: $7,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3114 Shell Ave Midland, TX	4.0	2.0	2260	$2,999	$1.33	21d	1	0.28mi
2601 Bedford Dr Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	2108	$2,200	$1.04	13d	1	0.57mi
3900 Douglas Ave Midland, TX	4.0	2.0	1961	$2,800	$1.43	43d	1	0.76mi
3326 W Dengar Ave Midland, TX	4.0	3.0	2000	$2,500	$1.25	21d	1	0.83mi
2204 Boyd Ave Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	2068	$3,000	$1.45	43d	1	0.98mi
11 Marchelle Ct Midland, TX	4.0	2.0	2714	$3,200	$1.18	43d	1	1.04mi
1603 N L St Midland, TX	4.0	3.0	2230	$3,200	$1.43	43d	1	1.13mi
3300 Durant Dr Midland, TX	3.0	3.5	2982	$4,400	$1.48	43d	1	1.33mi
3300 Durant Dr Midland, TX	4.0	3.5	2982	$3,650	$1.22	13d	1	1.33mi
3315 Godfrey St Midland, TX	1.0–3.0	1.5–4.0	1764	$2,800	$1.59	13d	8	1.33mi
1902 N I St Midland, TX	3.0	2.5	2178	$2,400	$1.10	43d	1	1.38mi
1509 Bedford Dr Midland, TX	4.0	2.0	3733	$4,500	$1.21	43d	1	1.42mi
1305 Lawson Ave Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	2065	$2,450	$1.19	43d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $255,000 Active 78 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $255,000 Active 77 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $255,000 Active 76 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $255,000 Active 75 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $255,000 Active 74 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $255,000 Active 72 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $255,000 Active 71 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   remarks 252-char remark
9. 2026-06-10
   pricedays on market $255,000 Active 69 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $269,900 Active 68 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $269,900 Active 67 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $269,900 Active 66 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $269,900 Active 62 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $269,900 Active 61 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $269,900 Active 60 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $269,900 Active 59 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $269,900 Active 58 DOM
18. 2026-05-12
    price $269,900 240-char remark

    Show marketing remark (240 chars)

    Location, Location, Location!! Sitting on . 273 acre on a classic Midland street! Built in 1957, this beauty is looking for someone who can bring it back to life. Investors, here's your chance to truly transform something. Come take a look!

19. 2026-04-14
    status Active 240-char remark

    Show marketing remark (240 chars)

    Location, Location, Location!! Sitting on . 273 acre on a classic Midland street! Built in 1957, this beauty is looking for someone who can bring it back to life. Investors, here's your chance to truly transform something. Come take a look!

20. 2026-04-04
    historical Active Under Contract 240-char remark

    Show marketing remark (240 chars)

    Location, Location, Location!! Sitting on . 273 acre on a classic Midland street! Built in 1957, this beauty is looking for someone who can bring it back to life. Investors, here's your chance to truly transform something. Come take a look!

21. 2026-04-02
    listed $275,000 Active 240-char remark

    Show marketing remark (240 chars)

    Location, Location, Location!! Sitting on . 273 acre on a classic Midland street! Built in 1957, this beauty is looking for someone who can bring it back to life. Investors, here's your chance to truly transform something. Come take a look!

22. 1977-11-14
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,140 · $428/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,140 · $428/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,411
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,284
• − Property taxes: −$5,140
• − Insurance: −$1,275
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,833
• − Management: −$2,833
• − Depreciation: −$7,418
• Taxable income: $1,629
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$391
• After-tax cash flow: $5,122/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Midland ISD
• NCES district ID: 4830570
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $63,457
• Composite: 31.63/100
• National rank: #5938
• State rank: #477 of 826 in TX

Livability — Midland

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #57
• US rank: #2192

Category grades

Amenities D Commute D+ Cost of living A Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Midland, TX
• County: Midland County · 168,494 people
• City population: 168,494
• Metro: Midland, TX
• Population (ZIP): 27,131
• Household income: $57,346
• Rent vs Own: 33.0% rent · 67.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 938.0

Population outlook (Midland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 220,895 people
• By 2030: 253,667 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 325,498 · +47.4%
• By 2050: 404,168 · +83.0%
• By 2075: 609,802 · +176.1%
• By 2100: 760,172 · +244.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 61% Two or more races 28% White 27% Black 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 57%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Ukrainian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada
• Languages at home: 55% English-only · Spanish 44%

Political lean MEDSL · Midland

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.5) · D 19.3% · R 79.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.3pp toward R · 2008: -57.3pp · 2024: -60.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.5 2020: R+56.6 2016: R+55.2 2012: R+61.5 2008: R+57.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -227.32%
• Current HPI: 234.6111
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.74%
• Metro: Midland, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-1.9% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $269,900 PBBOR
• 2026-04-14 Relisted — PBBOR
• 2026-04-04 Contingent — PBBOR
• 2026-04-02 Listed $275,000 PBBOR
• 1977-11-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+1.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,140 · -3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.