102 Sims Ave #1 · Callaway, FL 32404

$149,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 840 sqft · Manufactured public records · 53 Days on market

Built 2018 6,615 sqft lot $178/sqft · at area comps Est $154k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.8/30.0
• ARV discount +8.6/15.0
• DSCR +6.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Recently Remodeled Mobile Home featuring LVP flooring, quartz countertops, recently installed kitchen cabinets and bathroom vanities.

Key facts

• Quartz countertops
• Bathroom vanities
• Kitchen cabinets

Tags

• REMODELED MOBILE HOME
• LVP FLOORING
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• KITCHEN CABINETS
• BATHROOM VANITIES

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Short-term rentals allowed

Exterior

• Utilities: Electricity available; Public sewer
• Home design: Single wide mobile home
• Construction: Modular/prefab construction; Vinyl siding; Composition/shingle roof
• Exterior features: Partial fencing; City street frontage; Publicly maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric cooktop; Electric range
• Bedrooms: Bedroom on the first level; Primary bedroom
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Electric heating
• Interior features: Family room; Total of 3 rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $205 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $148k (1.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $145k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 5.1% in Callaway — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#690 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Bay (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #29 of 73 in FL (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 969 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,473 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (559 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bay County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 53 days — a 3% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $145,403 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 53 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.94%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.87%
• DSCR: 1.26
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $153,683
• List price: $149,900
• Delta: -2.46%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 5 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.12% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.67×
• Total profit: $-13,967
• Equity at exit: $22,351

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.85×
• Total profit: $-6,233
• Equity at exit: $12,961

Cash invested: $41,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32404

• Home prices YoY: -16.1%
• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 969
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,475 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax from tax record: −$111 /mo · $1,337/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$310
• Net cashflow: $205

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,215

Max offer price $149,900

Occupancy floor 81%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $290	-5% $248	+0% $205	+5% $163	+10% $121
Rent	-10% $89	-5% $147	+0% $205	+5% $264	+10% $322
Rate	-1.0pp $281	-0.5pp $244	base $205	+0.5pp $167	+1.0pp $127

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,475
• Closing costs: $4,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
149 North Highway 22 A Unit 5 Panama City, FL	2.0	1.0	900	$1,140	$1.27	14d	1	0.22mi
208 North Highway 22 A Unit 33 Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1080	$1,350	$1.25	21d	1	0.27mi
5101 Willow St Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1099	$1,500	$1.36	14d	1	0.39mi
4905 Alameda St Unit 1 Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	942	$1,295	$1.37	21d	1	0.47mi
5805 Cherry St Panama City, FL	2.0	1.0	1025	$1,200	$1.17	14d	1	0.52mi
4837 S Lakewood Dr Panama City, FL	2.0	1.5	1116	$1,500	$1.34	21d	1	0.54mi
322 S Burkett Dr Panama City, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	600	$1,519	$2.53	14d	13	0.54mi
543 N 9th St Unit 543 Panama City, FL	2.0	1.0	850	$1,195	$1.41	14d	1	0.71mi
4828 Grimes St #3 Panama City, FL	2.0	1.0	850	$1,150	$1.35	21d	1	0.74mi
6101 Harvey St #3 Panama City, FL	2.0	1.5	1108	$1,050	$0.95	21d	1	0.89mi
6121 Harvey St Apt 16 Panama City, FL	2.0	1.5	1000	$1,090	$1.09	21d	1	0.91mi
237 Helen Ave Panama City, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,395	$1.40	21d	1	1.09mi
168 N Comet Ave Panama City, FL	2.0	2.0	950	$1,100	$1.16	21d	1	1.13mi
6724 Chipewa St Unit 6724 Panama City, FL	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,125	$1.12	14d	1	1.34mi
4480 East Highway 98 Unit 1 Panama City, FL	2.0	1.5	972	$1,250	$1.29	21d	1	1.35mi
4480 E Highway 98 Panama City, FL	2.0	1.0	972	$1,250	$1.29	21d	1	1.35mi
5117 E 10th St Apt A Panama City, FL	2.0	1.5	936	$1,200	$1.28	14d	1	1.37mi
5117 E 10th St Unit D Panama City, FL	2.0	1.5	950	$1,250	$1.32	14d	1	1.38mi
116 Christie Ln Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1092	$1,550	$1.42	21d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $149,900 Active 53 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,900 Active 52 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $149,900 Active 51 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $149,900 Active 50 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,900 Active 49 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $149,900 Active 47 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $149,900 Active 46 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $149,900 Active 44 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $149,900 Active 43 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $149,900 Active 42 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $149,900 Active 41 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $149,900 Active 38 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $149,900 Active 37 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $149,900 Active 36 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $149,900 Active 35 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $149,900 Active 34 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $149,900 Active 33 DOM
18. 2026-04-27
    listed $149,900 Active 133-char remark
19. 2021-12-09
    historical
20. 2021-12-09
    historical
21. 2013-06-13
    listed $149,000
22. 2010-04-12
    listed $150,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,337 · $111/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,337 · $111/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,703
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,397
• − Property taxes: −$1,337
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,416
• − Management: −$1,416
• − Depreciation: −$4,361
• Taxable income: $27
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$6
• After-tax cash flow: $2,459/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay
• NCES district ID: 1200090
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $47,740
• Composite: 43.41/100
• National rank: #3014
• State rank: #29 of 73 in FL

Livability — Callaway

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #690
• US rank: #14384

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Callaway, FL
• County: Bay County · 163,593 people
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• Population (ZIP): 42,514
• Household income: $74,708
• Rent vs Own: 30.8% rent · 69.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1218.0

Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 206,264 people
• By 2030: 217,740 · +5.6%
• By 2040: 238,738 · +15.7%
• By 2050: 255,545 · +23.9%
• By 2075: 288,295 · +39.8%
• By 2100: 288,638 · +39.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Black 12% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 9% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Vietnam, Mexico
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 6% Vietnamese 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.4) · D 25.8% · R 73.1% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.6pp toward R · 2008: -40.7pp · 2024: -47.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.4 2020: R+43.5 2016: R+46.3 2012: R+43.6 2008: R+40.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -50.59%
• Current HPI: 263.7178
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.12%
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Listed $149,900 CPARMLS

Property tax history

+9.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,337 · -49.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.