323 Valley Spring Dr · Arlington, TX 76018

$239,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,010 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 40 Days on market

Built 1985 5,663 sqft lot $237/sqft · at area comps Est $267k · 10% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.2/15.0
• Cash flow +11.3/30.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.7/10.0

Listing remarks

NICE SINGLE STORY HOME, LIVING AREA, DINING AREA, LUXURY VINYL PLANK FLOORING THROUGH OUT , LOTS OF UPDATES, QUARTZ COUNTER TOPS, NEW SS APPLIANCES, ROOF REPLACED. .. . DRIVEWAY REPLACED. .. FRESH PAINT, TWO CAR GARAGE, FENCED YARD. .. .. EMAIL AGENT IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Key facts

• New ss appliances
• Driveway replaced
• Single story home

Tags

• SINGLE STORY HOME
• LUXURY VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• QUARTZ COUNTER TOPS
• NEW SS APPLIANCES
• ROOF REPLACED
• DRIVEWAY REPLACED

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property subtype: Single Family Residence; Lot is less than 0.5 acre; Municipal utility district: No
• HOA & community: No HOA / association

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2-car garage with garage door opener; Covered parking for 2 vehicles; Driveway; Garage faces front
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; Electricity available; Sewer available
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property; One story; Preowned (built in 1985)
• Construction: Brick exterior; Built in 1985
• Exterior features: Fenced yard; Curbs and sidewalks; Concrete surfaces

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Electric cooktop; Electric range
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (both on main level)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: One-level layout; Wood-burning fireplace; 4 total rooms; 1 living area; 1 dining area; Other interior features
• Laundry & utility: Washer/dryer hookup (utility details not specified)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $239k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-87 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $224k (6.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $207k (13.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $207k (13.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.6% in Arlington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#75 in TX, #2,697 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, commute F.
• Arlington ISD (urban): math 24% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #629 of 826 in TX (top 76%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Amos El (math 17% / reading 27%, grade F, #3,333 of 4,322 statewide, top 80%, 381 students, 89% FRL); Ousley J H (math 37% / reading 49%, grade D-, #540 of 1,662 statewide, top 33%, 876 students, 78% FRL); Seguin H S (math 32% / reading 45%, grade F, #866 of 1,632 statewide, top 54%, 1,529 students, 72% FRL) — zoned schools average 79% FRL vs 60% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.4%/yr); 80 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 18,938 units permitted in Tarrant County in 2024 (8,336 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Tarrant County population projected at +41% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($232k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $207,323 (13.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.86%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.55%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $266,654
• List price: $239,000
• Delta: -10.37%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
224 Valley Spring Dr	0.14mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,010 (0%)	4mo	$220,000	$218	85
323 Valley Spring Dr	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,120 (+11%)	0mo	$239,000	$213	77
5604 Congressional Dr	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,095 (+8%)	2mo	$235,000	$215	66
6205 Patriotic Ct	0.43mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,024 (+1%)	8mo	$249,900	$244	66
507 British Ct	0.60mi	3/1.0	1,005 (-0%)	10mo	$229,000	$228	59
115 Valley Spring Dr	0.25mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,136 (+12%)	6mo	$220,000	$194	58
531 Valley Mills Dr	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,136 (+12%)	13mo	$265,000	$233	53
201 Caprock Dr	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,136 (+12%)	21mo	$239,000	$210	51
418 Betsy Ross Dr	0.62mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,003 (-1%)	17mo	$245,000	$244	51
6016 Hollyleaf Dr	0.52mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,082 (+7%)	19mo	$280,000	$259	43
5314 Umbrella Pine Ct	0.65mi	3/1.0	1,140 (+13%)	3mo	$225,000	$197	42
5302 Yaupon Dr	0.68mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,059 (+5%)	16mo	$229,000	$216	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.39% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-47,481
• Equity at exit: $35,636

10-year hold

• IRR: -18.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.08×
• Total profit: $-61,280
• Equity at exit: $20,664

Cash invested: $66,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76018

• Home prices YoY: -2.8%
• Rents YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 80
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,073 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,253
• Tax from tax record: −$372 /mo · $4,460/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$435
• Net cashflow: $-87

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,183

Max offer price $223,681

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $49	-5% $-19	+0% $-87	+5% $-154	+10% $-222
Rent	-10% $-251	-5% $-169	+0% $-87	+5% $-5	+10% $77
Rate	-1.0pp $34	-0.5pp $-26	base $-87	+0.5pp $-149	+1.0pp $-212

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,750
• Closing costs: $7,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
323 Moss Hill Dr Arlington, TX	3.0	2.0	1053	$1,900	$1.80	9d	1	0.07mi
216 Caprock Dr Arlington, TX	3.0	2.0	1211	$1,850	$1.53	18d	1	0.15mi
216 Caprock Dr Arlington, TX	3.0	2.0	1211	$1,850	$1.53	5d	1	0.15mi
325 Angelina Dr Arlington, TX	3.0	2.0	1441	$1,900	$1.32	9d	1	0.16mi
517 Valley Mills Dr Arlington, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,800	$1.50	45d	1	0.29mi
5907 Lovingham Ct Unit 5907 Arlington, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$2,050	$1.71	45d	1	0.38mi
222 Mahogany Dr Arlington, TX	3.0	2.0	1421	$2,160	$1.52	18d	1	0.40mi
6306 Pilgrim Ln Arlington, TX	3.0	2.0	1197	$1,885	$1.57	45d	1	0.48mi
6014 Hollyleaf Dr Arlington, TX	3.0	2.5	1389	$2,145	$1.54	3d	1	0.51mi
101 Colony Dr Arlington, TX	3.0	2.0	1400	$2,055	$1.47	45d	1	0.54mi
6202 Tidewater Dr Arlington, TX	3.0	2.0	1424	$2,100	$1.47	21d	1	0.55mi
708 Port Richmond Way Arlington, TX	3.0	2.0	1180	$1,900	$1.61	12d	1	0.58mi
746 Bonnet Trl Arlington, TX	2.0	2.0	1416	$2,175	$1.54	26d	1	0.64mi
529 Nightshade Dr Arlington, TX	3.0	2.0	1208	$1,950	$1.61	0d	1	0.65mi
529 Nightshade Dr Arlington, TX	3.0	2.0	1208	$1,950	$1.61	45d	1	0.65mi
920 Tennessee Trl Arlington, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$2,095	$1.40	3d	1	0.67mi
916 Ashmount Ln Arlington, TX	3.0	2.0	1185	$1,899	$1.60	45d	1	0.68mi
734 Port Richmond Way Arlington, TX	3.0	2.0	1424	$2,050	$1.44	45d	1	0.69mi
5304 Tamarack Ct Arlington, TX	3.0	2.0	1452	$2,211	$1.52	0d	1	0.70mi
805 Greenridge Dr Arlington, TX	3.0	2.0	1361	$2,050	$1.51	21d	1	0.72mi
405 Myrtle Dr Arlington, TX	3.0	2.0	1371	$2,100	$1.53	9d	1	0.72mi
5310 Pampas Ct Arlington, TX	3.0	2.0	1231	$1,800	$1.46	26d	1	0.72mi
816 W Colony Dr Arlington, TX	3.0	2.0	1296	$2,025	$1.56	20d	1	0.73mi
231 Myrtle Dr Arlington, TX	3.0	2.0	1346	$1,785	$1.33	45d	1	0.77mi
405 Lemon Dr Arlington, TX	3.0	2.0	1371	$1,875	$1.37	14d	1	0.77mi
6403 Jennie Ln Arlington, TX	3.0	2.0	1491	$2,400	$1.61	45d	1	0.78mi
230 Lemon Dr Arlington, TX	3.0	2.0	1389	$1,990	$1.43	45d	1	0.80mi
322 Juniper Dr Arlington, TX	3.0	2.0	1326	$1,800	$1.36	18d	1	0.88mi
911 Pinion Dr Arlington, TX	3.0	2.0	1299	$1,400	$1.08	45d	1	0.88mi
312 Juniper Dr Arlington, TX	3.0	2.0	1101	$1,895	$1.72	0d	1	0.90mi
312 Juniper Dr Arlington, TX	3.0	2.0	1101	$1,995	$1.81	24d	1	0.90mi
312 Juniper Dr Arlington, TX	3.0	2.0	1101	$1,995	$1.81	26d	1	0.90mi
863 Valleybrooke Dr Arlington, TX	3.0	2.0	1123	$1,950	$1.74	45d	1	0.91mi
850 Colson Dr Arlington, TX	3.0	2.0	1350	$2,095	$1.55	45d	1	0.93mi
1009 Danforth Ct Arlington, TX	3.0	2.0	1436	$2,050	$1.43	4d	1	0.94mi
5211 Carpenter Dr Arlington, TX	3.0	2.0	1268	$1,945	$1.53	26d	1	0.94mi
5211 Carpenter Dr Arlington, TX	3.0	2.0	1268	$1,945	$1.53	19d	1	0.94mi
5216 Carpenter Dr Arlington, TX	3.0	2.5	1276	$1,925	$1.51	20d	1	0.95mi
6301 Fairlane Dr Arlington, TX	3.0	2.0	1420	$1,900	$1.34	26d	1	0.95mi
6216 Fairlane Dr Arlington, TX	3.0	2.0	1270	$1,900	$1.50	14d	1	0.97mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-08
   statusdays on market $239,000 Pending 40 DOM
2. 2026-06-07
   days on market $239,000 Active Option Contract 39 DOM
3. 2026-06-04
   days on market $239,000 Active Option Contract 36 DOM
4. 2026-06-03
   days on market $239,000 Active Option Contract 35 DOM
5. 2026-06-02
   days on market $239,000 Active Option Contract 34 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   status $239,000 Active Option Contract 33 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $239,000 Active 33 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $239,000 Active 32 DOM
9. 2026-04-29
   listed $239,000 Active 288-char remark
10. 2012-12-28
    soldstatus
11. 1985-12-02
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,460 · $372/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,460 · $372/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,879
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,388
• − Property taxes: −$4,460
• − Insurance: −$1,195
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,990
• − Management: −$1,990
• − Depreciation: −$6,953
• Taxable loss: −$5,097
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,223
• After-tax cash flow: $183/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Arlington ISD
• NCES district ID: 4808700
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $50,873
• Composite: 25.42/100
• National rank: #7458
• State rank: #629 of 826 in TX

Livability — Arlington

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #75
• US rank: #2697

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Arlington, TX
• County: Tarrant County · 2,033,669 people
• City population: 366,588
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 26,834
• Household income: $88,288
• Rent vs Own: 23.6% rent · 76.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 598.0

Population outlook (Tarrant County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,380,417 people
• By 2030: 2,578,900 · +8.3%
• By 2040: 2,974,995 · +25.0%
• By 2050: 3,350,489 · +40.8%
• By 2075: 4,216,909 · +77.2%
• By 2100: 4,741,527 · +99.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.76)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 34% Black 24% White 23% Asian 14% Two or more races 14% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Romanian 1% Lithuanian 0%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 62% English-only · Spanish 22% Vietnamese 11% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Tarrant

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.1) · D 46.7% · R 51.9% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.6pp toward D · 2008: -11.7pp · 2024: -5.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.1 2020: D+0.2 2016: R+8.7 2012: R+15.7 2008: R+11.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -8.64%
• Current HPI: 296.8765
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.39%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-17 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2026-06-08 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-06-01 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2026-04-29 Listed $239,000 NTREIS
• 2012-12-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1985-12-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+6.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,460 · -2.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.