12126 Garner Mill Ln · Pearland, TX 77089

$275,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,420 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 91 Days on market

Built 2001 9,753 sqft lot $114/sqft · 17% below area Est $333k · 17% under $42/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +6.6/30.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +0.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This property is a must-see two-story brick home that is ready for a New Owner. It sits on one of the few oversized lots in the area and features 4 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and an upstairs game room. Additionally, there is a study/office downstairs that could easily be used as an extra bedroom if needed. Bring your ideas and make this your future home. Located only few minutes to Downtown Houston!!

Key facts

• Oversized lots
• Study office
• Upstairs game room

Tags

• TWO STORY BRICK HOME
• OVERSIZED LOTS
• UPSTAIRS GAME ROOM
• STUDY OFFICE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $275k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-453 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $195k (29.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $229k (16.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $195k (29.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.3% vs local median 3.0% in Pearland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#32 in TX, #1,539 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D-, commute F.
• Clear Creek ISD (suburban): math 48% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #114 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.5%/yr); 185 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($88k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 91 days — a 9% lower offer ($250k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 11y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.9% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $194,990 (29.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 91 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.32%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.06%
• DSCR: 0.69
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $332,556
• List price: $275,000
• Delta: -17.31%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9835 Buckhaven Dr	0.07mi	4/2.0	2,701 (+12%)	4mo	$450,000	$167	72
2301 Da Vinci Dr	0.36mi	4/2.5	2,566 (+6%)	2mo	$415,000	$162	72
9827 Kimberly Loch Ln	0.27mi	4/2.0	2,564 (+6%)	10mo	$425,000	$166	68
1448 N Riviera Cir	0.54mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,474 (+2%)	1mo	$375,000	$152	63
9914 Sagemill Dr	0.61mi	4/2.0	2,439 (+1%)	6mo	$310,000	$127	63
10215 Sagemark Dr	0.64mi	4/3.0	2,450 (+1%)	8mo	$315,000	$129	60
9918 Sagegreen Dr	0.56mi	4/2.5	2,219 (-8%)	5mo	$220,000	$99	56
10203 Sagemark Dr	0.61mi	4/2.5	2,295 (-5%)	8mo	$289,900	$126	56
11354 Astoria Blvd	0.64mi	4/2.5	2,200 (-9%)	2mo	$319,000	$145	54
10130 Sagedale Dr	0.53mi	4/2.0	2,109 (-13%)	2mo	$315,000	$149	50
10015 Sagegate Dr	0.70mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,184 (-10%)	9mo	$290,000	$133	36
2220 W Marsala Dr	0.62mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,115 (-13%)	10mo	$370,000	$175	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.48% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -27.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.06×
• Total profit: $-72,044
• Equity at exit: $41,003

10-year hold

• IRR: -23.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.22×
• Total profit: $-94,246
• Equity at exit: $23,777

Cash invested: $77,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77089

• Rents YoY: 3.5%
• Active inventory: 185
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,286 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax from tax record: −$660 /mo · $7,925/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$42
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$480
• Net cashflow: $-453

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,860

Max offer price $194,990

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,750
• Closing costs: $8,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12018 Country Orchard Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	2624	$2,300	$0.88	17d	1	0.15mi
9815 Sagemoss Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1938	$2,400	$1.24	22d	1	1.06mi
12415 Jasmine Brook Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1588	$2,099	$1.32	2d	1	1.38mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $42 · $504/yr

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $275,000 Active 91 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $275,000 Active 90 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $275,000 Active 89 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $275,000 Active 88 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $275,000 Active 86 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $275,000 Active 85 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $275,000 Active 82 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $275,000 Active 81 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $275,000 Active 80 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $275,000 Active 77 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $275,000 Active 76 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $275,000 Active 75 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $275,000 Active 74 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    pricedays on market $275,000 Active 73 DOM
15. 2026-04-20
    price $289,750 404-char remark

    Show marketing remark (404 chars)

    This property is a must-see two-story brick home that is ready for a New Owner. It sits on one of the few oversized lots in the area and features 4 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and an upstairs game room. Additionally, there is a study/office downstairs that could easily be used as an extra bedroom if needed. Bring your ideas and make this your future home. Located only few minutes to Downtown Houston!!

16. 2026-03-19
    listed $305,000 Active 404-char remark

    Show marketing remark (404 chars)

    This property is a must-see two-story brick home that is ready for a New Owner. It sits on one of the few oversized lots in the area and features 4 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and an upstairs game room. Additionally, there is a study/office downstairs that could easily be used as an extra bedroom if needed. Bring your ideas and make this your future home. Located only few minutes to Downtown Houston!!

17. 2024-11-22
    soldstatus Sold 643-char remark

    Show marketing remark (643 chars)

    Investors, handyman special, this fixer upper just need some light cosmetic work and waiting for new owner to come in to make it their own. Located in a quiet neighborhood and sitting on a very large lot. HVAC was just replaced 2023, and roof is replaced 7 years ago. The spacious floor plan includes a large open kitchen dinning area, study downstairs, game room upstairs, and all bedrooms up. Zoned to great clearbrook ISD to acclaimed schools, and walking distance to elementary school After renovation value of this home is $380,000+ so this is a super great deal that will go fast!!! Selling AS IS. Call today for a tour before it's gone!

18. 2024-11-22
    soldstatus

    Show marketing remark (643 chars)

    Investors, handyman special, this fixer upper just need some light cosmetic work and waiting for new owner to come in to make it their own. Located in a quiet neighborhood and sitting on a very large lot. HVAC was just replaced 2023, and roof is replaced 7 years ago. The spacious floor plan includes a large open kitchen dinning area, study downstairs, game room upstairs, and all bedrooms up. Zoned to great clearbrook ISD to acclaimed schools, and walking distance to elementary school After renovation value of this home is $380,000+ so this is a super great deal that will go fast!!! Selling AS IS. Call today for a tour before it's gone!

19. 2024-10-30
    status Pending 643-char remark

    Show marketing remark (643 chars)

    Investors, handyman special, this fixer upper just need some light cosmetic work and waiting for new owner to come in to make it their own. Located in a quiet neighborhood and sitting on a very large lot. HVAC was just replaced 2023, and roof is replaced 7 years ago. The spacious floor plan includes a large open kitchen dinning area, study downstairs, game room upstairs, and all bedrooms up. Zoned to great clearbrook ISD to acclaimed schools, and walking distance to elementary school After renovation value of this home is $380,000+ so this is a super great deal that will go fast!!! Selling AS IS. Call today for a tour before it's gone!

20. 2024-10-22
    status Option Pending 643-char remark

    Show marketing remark (643 chars)

    Investors, handyman special, this fixer upper just need some light cosmetic work and waiting for new owner to come in to make it their own. Located in a quiet neighborhood and sitting on a very large lot. HVAC was just replaced 2023, and roof is replaced 7 years ago. The spacious floor plan includes a large open kitchen dinning area, study downstairs, game room upstairs, and all bedrooms up. Zoned to great clearbrook ISD to acclaimed schools, and walking distance to elementary school After renovation value of this home is $380,000+ so this is a super great deal that will go fast!!! Selling AS IS. Call today for a tour before it's gone!

21. 2024-10-11
    status Active 643-char remark

    Show marketing remark (643 chars)

    Investors, handyman special, this fixer upper just need some light cosmetic work and waiting for new owner to come in to make it their own. Located in a quiet neighborhood and sitting on a very large lot. HVAC was just replaced 2023, and roof is replaced 7 years ago. The spacious floor plan includes a large open kitchen dinning area, study downstairs, game room upstairs, and all bedrooms up. Zoned to great clearbrook ISD to acclaimed schools, and walking distance to elementary school After renovation value of this home is $380,000+ so this is a super great deal that will go fast!!! Selling AS IS. Call today for a tour before it's gone!

22. 2024-10-09
    historical 643-char remark

    Show marketing remark (643 chars)

    Investors, handyman special, this fixer upper just need some light cosmetic work and waiting for new owner to come in to make it their own. Located in a quiet neighborhood and sitting on a very large lot. HVAC was just replaced 2023, and roof is replaced 7 years ago. The spacious floor plan includes a large open kitchen dinning area, study downstairs, game room upstairs, and all bedrooms up. Zoned to great clearbrook ISD to acclaimed schools, and walking distance to elementary school After renovation value of this home is $380,000+ so this is a super great deal that will go fast!!! Selling AS IS. Call today for a tour before it's gone!

23. 2024-10-04
    listed $289,900 Active 643-char remark

    Show marketing remark (643 chars)

    Investors, handyman special, this fixer upper just need some light cosmetic work and waiting for new owner to come in to make it their own. Located in a quiet neighborhood and sitting on a very large lot. HVAC was just replaced 2023, and roof is replaced 7 years ago. The spacious floor plan includes a large open kitchen dinning area, study downstairs, game room upstairs, and all bedrooms up. Zoned to great clearbrook ISD to acclaimed schools, and walking distance to elementary school After renovation value of this home is $380,000+ so this is a super great deal that will go fast!!! Selling AS IS. Call today for a tour before it's gone!

24. 2015-05-29
    soldstatus
25. 2015-05-28
    soldstatus Sold
26. 2015-05-12
    status Pending
27. 2015-04-29
    status Option Pending
28. 2015-04-23
    listed $174,950 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,925 · $660/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,925 · $660/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (shaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,437
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,404
• − Property taxes: −$7,925
• − Insurance: −$1,375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,195
• − Management: −$2,195
• − HOA: −$504
• − Depreciation: −$8,000
• Taxable loss: −$10,162
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,439
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,996/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Clear Creek ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814280
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $80,240
• Composite: 46.49/100
• National rank: #2431
• State rank: #114 of 826 in TX

Livability — Pearland

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #32
• US rank: #1539

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living B Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 142,397
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 57,741
• Household income: $88,140
• Rent vs Own: 32.7% rent · 67.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1483.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.71)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 45% Two or more races 22% White 19% Asian 17% Black 16%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 37%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 23% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 53% English-only · Spanish 33% Vietnamese 7% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -156.31%
• Current HPI: 249.5438
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.48%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+65.6% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $289,750 HARMLS
• 2026-03-19 Listed $305,000 HARMLS
• 2024-11-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2024-11-22 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2024-10-30 Pending — HARMLS
• 2024-10-22 Pending — HARMLS
• 2024-10-11 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2024-10-09 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-10-04 Listed $289,900 HARMLS
• 2015-05-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2015-05-28 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2015-05-12 Pending — HARMLS
• 2015-04-29 Pending — HARMLS
• 2015-04-23 Listed $174,950 HARMLS

Property tax history

+3.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,925 · +11.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.