Is 140 Rising Cedar Ln in Hockley, TX a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it F with a 4.6% cap rate and $-420/mo modeled cash flow at a $239,900 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for 140 Rising Cedar Ln?

The modeled cap rate is 4.6% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $2,200/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

🏗️ New Construction

F Composite 31.62

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

ARV discount +7.5/15.0
Cash flow +7.2/30.0
Condition / age +5.0/5.0
Schools +3.7/10.0
Livability +2.5/5.0
1% rule +2.2/10.0
Rent growth +2.1/5.0
DSCR +1.4/10.0
Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$239,900

140 Rising Cedar Ln · Hockley, TX 77447

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,785 sqft · SingleFamily · 38 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 4,800 sqft lot 2-car garage $50/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 9% since listing

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks MLS

The open-concept design of the two-story Lexington floor plan shows the huge island kitchen connected to the great room and dining room. The open-feel of the home is popular with today's sophisticated buyer, who is looking for a design that fosters togetherness in the home and makes entertaining fun. The use of space in the Lexington is well thought out, with the primary suite privately situated on the first floor, while the secondary bedrooms are on the second floor.

Key facts

Island kitchen
Primary suite
Secondary bedrooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $240k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $-420 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $220k (8.3% below list).
Recommended offer: $220k (8.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
Waller ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #532 of 826 in TX (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Fields Store El (math 47% / reading 43%, grade D-, #1,133 of 4,322 statewide, top 27%, 663 students, 63% FRL); Schultz J H (math 31% / reading 37%, grade F, #892 of 1,662 statewide, top 55%, 1,120 students, 65% FRL); Waller H S (math 25% / reading 40%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,632 statewide, top 64%, 2,639 students, 62% FRL) — zoned schools at 63% FRL track the district average.
Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 2409 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 483 units permitted in Waller County in 2024 (89 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Waller County population projected at +62% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($233k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $220,029 (8.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 8% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 0.72% ✗
Cap rate: 4.64%
Cash-on-cash: -5.90%
DSCR: 0.74
GRM: 11.6

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $304,996
List price: $239,900
Delta: -21.34%
Verdict: UNDERPRICED
Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
121 Rising Cedar Ln	0.11mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,858 (+4%)	3mo	$279,990	$151	81
124 Rising Cedar Ln	0.06mi	4/2.0	1,582 (-11%)	1mo	$224,900	$142	76
225 Elm Spring Dr	0.08mi	4/2.0	1,582 (-11%)	1mo	$268,900	$170	75
505 Wax Myrtle Way	0.13mi	4/3.0	2,012 (+13%)	3mo	$329,900	$164	68
544 Wax Myrtle Way	0.13mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,575 (-12%)	2mo	$290,990	$185	66
517 Wax Myrtle Way	0.13mi	4/3.0	2,041 (+14%)	3mo	$314,990	$154	65
553 Wax Myrtle Way	0.13mi	4/3.0	2,041 (+14%)	5mo	$314,990	$154	64
256 Elm Spring Dr	0.11mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,539 (-14%)	3mo	$252,990	$164	62
105 Rising Cedar Ln	0.17mi	4/2.5	2,042 (+14%)	7mo	$303,990	$149	62
237 Elm Spring Dr	0.11mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,539 (-14%)	6mo	$257,990	$168	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: -29.9%
Equity multiple: 0.03×
Total profit: $-82,527
Equity at exit: $45,476

10-year hold

IRR: -50.8%
Equity multiple: -0.53×
Total profit: $-130,929
Equity at exit: $26,370

Cash invested: $85,399 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now: 41 active · 18 under contract
Months of supply: 18.9 mo (5%/mo absorbed)
Median asking: $279,990 ($159/sqft)
Median days on market: 85 d
This list price: 2% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking: +7.7% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77447

Home prices YoY: -31.1%
Rents YoY: -1.6%
Active inventory: 2409
Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $2,200 medium interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$1,599
Tax est. 1.5%: −$381 /mo · $4,575/yr
Insurance: −$127
HOA: −$50
Lot rent: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$462
Net cashflow: $-420

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,731

Max offer price $244,289

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-209	-5% $-314	+0% $-420	+5% $-525	+10% $-630
Rent	-10% $-593	-5% $-506	+0% $-420	+5% $-333	+10% $-246
Rate	-1.0pp $-266	-0.5pp $-342	base $-420	+0.5pp $-499	+1.0pp $-579

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $76,249
Closing costs: $9,150
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Property features AI

Finance

HOA & community: Homeowners association (details TBD)Annual association fee of $600

Exterior

Parking: Attached 2-car garage
Utilities: Public waterPublic sewerEnergy-efficient windowsEnergy-efficient water heater
Home design: Residential single-family homeNew construction (2026)Slab foundationComposition roofBuilt by Century Communities
Construction: Brick constructionYear built 2026
Exterior features: Fenced backyardSubdivision location

Interior

Kitchen: DishwasherGas ovenGas rangeMicrowaveQuartz countertopsKitchen islandBreakfast bar
Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on first floor (14'‑8" x 12')Three additional bedrooms on second floor (approx. 9'‑11.5" x 11'; 10'‑7" x 11'‑2"; 10'‑7" x 11')
Flooring: CarpetVinyl
Bathrooms: Two full bathroomsOne half bathroomDouble vanity in primary bath
Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas)Central air conditioning (electric)Programmable thermostatHVAC energy-efficient features
Interior features: Breakfast barDouble vanity in bathKitchen islandKitchen/family room comboPrimary bedroom with private bathQuartz countertopsCeiling fansProgrammable thermostatLow emissivity windowsRadiant attic barrier
Laundry & utility: Washer hookupElectric dryer hookupWasher and dryer includedTankless water heater

Listing history 50 events

2026-09-24

days on market $239,900 Active 38 DOM
2026-09-23

days on market $239,900 Active 37 DOM
2026-09-22

days on market $239,900 Active 36 DOM
2026-09-21

days on market $239,900 Active 35 DOM
2026-09-20

days on market $239,900 Active 34 DOM
2026-09-19

days on market $239,900 Active 33 DOM
2026-09-18

days on market $239,900 Active 32 DOM
2026-09-17

days on market $239,900 Active 31 DOM
2026-09-16

pricedays on market $239,900 Active 30 DOM
2026-09-15

days on market $249,900 Active 29 DOM
2026-09-14

days on market $249,900 Active 28 DOM
2026-09-13

days on market $249,900 Active 27 DOM
2026-09-12

days on market $249,900 Active 26 DOM
2026-09-05

days on market $249,900 Active 19 DOM
2026-09-04

days on market $249,900 Active 18 DOM
2026-09-03

days on market $249,900 Active 17 DOM
2026-08-31

days on market $249,900 Active 14 DOM
2026-08-30

days on market $249,900 Active 13 DOM
2026-08-29

days on market $249,900 Active 12 DOM
2026-08-28

days on market $249,900 Active 11 DOM
2026-08-27

days on market $249,900 Active 10 DOM
2026-08-25

days on market $249,900 Active 8 DOM
2026-08-24

days on market $249,900 Active 7 DOM
2026-08-23

days on market $249,900 Active 6 DOM
2026-08-22

days on market $249,900 Active 5 DOM
2026-08-21

days on market $249,900 Active 4 DOM
2026-08-20

pricedays on market $249,900 Active 3 DOM
2026-08-19

days on market $264,900 Active 2 DOM
2026-08-17

days on marketlisting id $264,900 Active 1 DOM
2026-08-16

days on market $264,900 Active 198 DOM
2026-08-15

days on market $264,900 Active 197 DOM
2026-08-14

pricedays on market $264,900 Active 196 DOM

Show marketing remark (472 chars)

The open-concept design of the two-story Lexington floor plan shows the huge island kitchen connected to the great room and dining room. The open-feel of the home is popular with today's sophisticated buyer, who is looking for a design that fosters togetherness in the home and makes entertaining fun. The use of space in the Lexington is well thought out, with the primary suite privately situated on the first floor, while the secondary bedrooms are on the second floor.
2026-08-13

days on market $270,900 Active 195 DOM
2026-08-12

days on market $270,900 Active 194 DOM
2026-08-11

days on market $270,900 Active 193 DOM
2026-08-10

days on market $270,900 Active 192 DOM
2026-08-09

days on market $270,900 Active 191 DOM
2026-08-08

days on market $270,900 Active 190 DOM
2026-08-06

days on market $270,900 Active 188 DOM
2026-08-05

days on market $270,900 Active 187 DOM
2026-08-04

days on market $270,900 Active 186 DOM
2026-08-03

days on market $270,900 Active 185 DOM
2026-07-31

pricedays on market $270,900 Active 182 DOM

Show marketing remark (472 chars)

The open-concept design of the two-story Lexington floor plan shows the huge island kitchen connected to the great room and dining room. The open-feel of the home is popular with today's sophisticated buyer, who is looking for a design that fosters togetherness in the home and makes entertaining fun. The use of space in the Lexington is well thought out, with the primary suite privately situated on the first floor, while the secondary bedrooms are on the second floor.
2026-07-30

days on market $290,900 Active 180 DOM
2026-07-28

days on market $290,900 Active 179 DOM
2026-07-26

days on market $290,900 Active 177 DOM
2026-07-24

days on market $290,900 Active 175 DOM
2026-07-23

days on market $290,900 Active 174 DOM
2026-07-22

days on market $290,900 Active 173 DOM
2026-07-21

days on market $290,900 Active 172 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $26,403
− Mortgage interest: −$17,085
− Property taxes: −$4,575
− Insurance: −$1,525
− Repairs & maintenance: −$2,112
− Management: −$2,112
− HOA: −$600
− Depreciation: −$8,873
Taxable loss: −$10,478

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,515
After-tax cash flow: $-2,520/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 3 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It is move-in ready and would be ideal for both resale and rental.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 37/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Fields Store El D- TX #1,133/4,322 Nat'l #15,897/41,679 Middle Schultz J H F TX #892/1,662 Nat'l #7,813/14,009 High Waller H S F TX #1,029/1,632 Nat'l #10,333/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District: Waller ISD
NCES district ID: 4844430
Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
Median HH income: $58,911
Composite: 29.12/100
National rank: #6593
State rank: #532 of 826 in TX

Livability — Hockley

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

County: Harris County · 60,772 people
City population: 25,231
Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
Population (ZIP): 25,231
Household income: $116,925
Rent vs Own: 14.0% rent · 86.0% own
Severe rent burden: 1% of renters

Population outlook (Waller County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 60,772 people
By 2030: 67,616 · +11.3%
By 2040: 82,283 · +35.4%
By 2050: 98,276 · +61.7%
By 2075: 142,860 · +135.1%
By 2100: 175,596 · +188.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
Race & ethnicity: White 44% Hispanic / Latino 41% Two or more races 16% Black 9% Asian 1%
Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27%
Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica, Dominican Republic
Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Indo-European 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Waller

2024 margin: Strong R (+25.0) · D 37.0% · R 62.0% · Other 1.0%
2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -7.2pp · 2024: -25.0pp
All cycles: 2024: R+25.0 2020: R+26.7 2016: R+28.6 2012: R+17.6 2008: R+7.2

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▼ -112.73%
Current HPI: 249.6969
Rent YoY: ▼ -1.58%
Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Energy	16	$1,198B
#8 Exxon Mobil Spring $349.6B #16 Chevron Houston $202.8B #28 Phillips 66 Houston $145.5B #34 Valero Energy San Antonio $124.0B #53 Energy Transfer Dallas $82.7B #75 ConocoPhillips Houston $57.0B #78 Enterprise Products Partners Houston $56.2B #92 Plains GP Holdings Houston $50.1B #134 HF Sinclair Dallas $29.6B #142 Occidental Petroleum Houston $26.3B #173 Targa Resources Houston $19.4B #188 Cheniere Energy Houston $17.6B #239 Kinder Morgan Houston $15.3B #419 APA Corporation Houston $8.6B #393 Cabot Oil & Gas Houston $7.9B #455 Coterra Energy Houston $5.8B
Technology	5	$198B
#44 Dell Technologies Round Rock $95.6B #87 Oracle Austin $53.0B #132 Hewlett Packard Enterprise Spring $30.1B #193 Texas Instruments Dallas $16.3B #406 Match Group Dallas $3.4B
Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
#228 Quanta Services Houston $23.7B #258 Jacobs Solutions Dallas $16.3B #318 AECOM Dallas $16.1B #279 Fluor Irving $16.1B
Energy Services	3	$60B
#136 Baker Hughes Houston $28.5B #154 Halliburton Houston $23.1B #368 Smith International Houston $8.4B
Utilities	3	$41B
#194 Vistra Irving $16.3B #211 NRG Energy Houston $15.4B #259 CenterPoint Energy Houston $9.4B
Healthcare	2	$330B
#9 McKesson Irving $309.0B #163 Tenet Healthcare Dallas $20.6B

Price history

-8.9% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

2026-08-17 Listing Removed — HARMLS
2026-08-17 Listed $264,900 HARMLS
2026-08-14 Price Changed $264,900 Zillow
2026-08-13 Price Changed $264,900 HARMLS
2026-07-31 Price Changed $270,900 Zillow
2026-07-30 Price Changed $270,900 HARMLS
2026-05-29 Price Changed $275,900 Zillow
2026-01-30 Listed $290,900 HARMLS
2026-01-16 Listed $290,900 Zillow

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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