620 57th Ave W · Bayshore Gardens, FL 34207

$35,999

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 4,556 sqft · Land public records · 40 Days on market

Built 1972

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

New Palm Harbor Model 2 BR/2 Bath 28' X 48' 1288 SQ FT, it's here & set to go!!! Call Frank today to get an appointment view this spectacular floorplan ASAP! You can lock yourself into this amazing gem now and secure it before it is gone! See what excellent living at Swan Lake Village is all about. Tax, title, & registration extra. J-23 $164,900 Enjoy hassle-free living with trash, water, sewer, lawn care, and all community amenities included. Swan Lake Village is a pet-friendly community, conveniently located just minutes away from dining and shopping. Residents can take advantage of the swimming pool, fitness area, billiard room, clubhouse, and shuffleboard courts. Plus, there's a monthly calendar packed with activities to keep your engaged and entertained. Call now to schedule a private showing and discover the beauty of Swan Lake Village today. Please note that tax, registration, application, and administrative fees are extra. Land is leased, not owned.

Key facts

• Built 1972
• Listed 40 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $36k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $947 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $36k).
• Recommended offer: $35k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 37.9% vs local median 4.7% in Bayshore Gardens — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#72 in FL, #1,180 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, commute C-, employment F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Blanche H. Daughtrey Elementary (math 50% / reading 25%, grade F, #1,596 of 2,144 statewide, top 75%, 758 students, 69% FRL); Bayshore High School (math 17% / reading 26%, grade F, #546 of 667 statewide, top 82%, 1,435 students, 65% FRL) — zoned schools average 67% FRL vs 51% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 30% at this address vs 52% district-wide (-22 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Manatee average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-5.5%/yr); 362 active listings in the ZIP; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($45k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $249 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $10k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($35k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $34,919 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.21% ✓
• Cap rate: 37.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 112.78%
• DSCR: 6.02
• GRM: 2.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 5.97×
• Total profit: $50,089
• Equity at exit: $5,368

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 11.34×
• Total profit: $104,254
• Equity at exit: $3,113

Cash invested: $10,080 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34207

• Rents YoY: -5.5%
• Active inventory: 362
• Price-to-rent: 2.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,514 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$189
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$45 /mo · $540/yr
• Insurance: −$15
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$318
• Net cashflow: $947

Break-even live

Break-even rent $315

Max offer price $35,999

Occupancy floor 32%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $972	-5% $960	+0% $947	+5% $935	+10% $922
Rent	-10% $828	-5% $888	+0% $947	+5% $1,007	+10% $1,067
Rate	-1.0pp $965	-0.5pp $956	base $947	+0.5pp $938	+1.0pp $929

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $9,000
• Closing costs: $1,080
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $35,999 Active 40 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $35,999 Active 37 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $35,999 Active 36 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $35,999 Active 35 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $35,999 Active 34 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $35,999 Active 32 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $35,999 Active 31 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $35,999 Active 29 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $35,999 Active 28 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $35,999 Active 27 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $35,999 Active 26 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $35,999 Active 22 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $35,999 Active 21 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $35,999 Active 20 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $35,999 Active 19 DOM
16. 2026-05-12
    listed $35,999 Active
17. 2026-02-17
    price $164,900 983-char remark

    Show marketing remark (983 chars)

    New Palm Harbor Model 2 BR/2 Bath 28' X 48' 1288 SQ FT, it's here & set to go!!! Call Frank today to get an appointment view this spectacular floorplan ASAP! You can lock yourself into this amazing gem now and secure it before it is gone! See what excellent living at Swan Lake Village is all about. Tax, title, & registration extra. J-23 $164,900 Enjoy hassle-free living with trash, water, sewer, lawn care, and all community amenities included. Swan Lake Village is a pet-friendly community, conveniently located just minutes away from dining and shopping. Residents can take advantage of the swimming pool, fitness area, billiard room, clubhouse, and shuffleboard courts. Plus, there's a monthly calendar packed with activities to keep your engaged and entertained. Call now to schedule a private showing and discover the beauty of Swan Lake Village today. Please note that tax, registration, application, and administrative fees are extra. Land is leased, not owned.

18. 2025-06-24
    listed $199,900 Active 983-char remark

    Show marketing remark (983 chars)

    New Palm Harbor Model 2 BR/2 Bath 28' X 48' 1288 SQ FT, it's here & set to go!!! Call Frank today to get an appointment view this spectacular floorplan ASAP! You can lock yourself into this amazing gem now and secure it before it is gone! See what excellent living at Swan Lake Village is all about. Tax, title, & registration extra. J-23 $164,900 Enjoy hassle-free living with trash, water, sewer, lawn care, and all community amenities included. Swan Lake Village is a pet-friendly community, conveniently located just minutes away from dining and shopping. Residents can take advantage of the swimming pool, fitness area, billiard room, clubhouse, and shuffleboard courts. Plus, there's a monthly calendar packed with activities to keep your engaged and entertained. Call now to schedule a private showing and discover the beauty of Swan Lake Village today. Please note that tax, registration, application, and administrative fees are extra. Land is leased, not owned.

19. 2023-01-16
    historical
20. 2023-01-12
    listed $112,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,169
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,017
• − Property taxes: −$540
• − Insurance: −$180
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,454
• − Management: −$1,454
• − Depreciation: −$1,047
• Taxable income: $11,478
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,755
• After-tax cash flow: $8,613/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Bayshore Gardens

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #72
• US rank: #1180

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute C- Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bayshore Gardens, FL
• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• City population: 33,840
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 34,081
• Household income: $45,010
• Rent vs Own: 38.8% rent · 61.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1474.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 13% Black 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12% Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 3% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 22% Other Indo-European 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -305.32%
• Current HPI: 369.9899
• Rent YoY: ▼ -5.50%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-67.9% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Listed $35,999 FSBO.com
• 2026-02-17 Price Changed $164,900 Zillow
• 2025-06-24 Listed $199,900 Zillow
• 2023-01-16 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-01-12 Listed $112,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+7.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $245,231 · +5.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.