404 Dogwood Trl · Lufkin, TX 75904

$105,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,452 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 59 Days on market

Built 1955 9,148 sqft lot $72/sqft · 35% below area Est $162k · 35% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.2/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Centrally located in a well-established neighborhood, this 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers a great opportunity for buyers ready to add their own style. With a functional layout and flexible living spaces, the home is well-suited for cosmetic updates without the need for a full renovation. The spacious, tree-shaded lot provides plenty of room to enhance curb appeal and create inviting outdoor living areas. Wheelchair ramps at both the front and rear entrances offer added accessibility and convenience. Priced to sell AS IS and recently reduced, this property presents strong potential at an attractive price point. Come see the possibilities before it's gone.

Key facts

• Tree-shaded lot
• Solid opportunity
• Outdoor living

Tags

• WELL-ESTABLISHED NEIGHBORHOOD
• FLEXIBLE LIVING SPACES
• TREE-SHADED LOT
• OUTDOOR LIVING
• SOLID OPPORTUNITY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $105k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $381 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $105k).
• Recommended offer: $102k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.6% vs local median 3.6% in Lufkin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#240 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, crime F, commute F.
• Lufkin ISD (town): math 39% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #446 of 826 in TX (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 292 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 120 units permitted in Angelina County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $726 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $29k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 59 days — a 3% lower offer ($102k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $101,850 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 59 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.42% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.64%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.53%
• DSCR: 1.69
• GRM: 5.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $162,142
• List price: $105,000
• Delta: -35.24%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 15 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1201 Moss Dr	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,347 (-7%)	12mo	$129,000	$96	69
408 Lynn Ave	0.12mi	3/1.5	1,248 (-14%)	6mo	$140,000	$112	64
1508 Cimmarron St	0.06mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,600 (+10%)	18mo	$179,900	$112	60
600 Carrol Ave	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,249 (-14%)	11mo	$198,000	$159	57
1111 South First St	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,315 (-9%)	22mo	$189,900	$144	50
510 Trout St	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,329 (-8%)	12mo	$89,000	$67	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.25×
• Total profit: $7,291
• Equity at exit: $15,656

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.29×
• Total profit: $37,831
• Equity at exit: $9,078

Cash invested: $29,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75904

• Home prices YoY: -25.1%
• Active inventory: 292
• Price-to-rent: 5.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,491 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$551
• Tax from tax record: −$203 /mo · $2,438/yr
• Insurance: −$44
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$313
• Net cashflow: $381

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,010

Max offer price $105,000

Occupancy floor 69%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $26,250
• Closing costs: $3,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
120 E Denman Ave Lufkin, TX	2.0	2.0	985	$1,300	$1.32	44d	1	0.70mi
1406 Russell Ave Lufkin, TX	3.0	2.0	1648	$1,750	$1.06	44d	1	0.85mi
310 Mott Rd Lufkin, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0	806	$988	$1.23	44d	28	0.91mi
1214 Lotus Ln Lufkin, TX	2.0	2.0	893	$900	$1.01	44d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $105,000 Active 59 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $105,000 Active 58 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $105,000 Active 57 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $105,000 Active 56 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $105,000 Active 55 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $105,000 Active 53 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $105,000 Active 52 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $105,000 Active 50 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $105,000 Active 49 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $105,000 Active 48 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $105,000 Active 47 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $105,000 Active 43 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $105,000 Active 42 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $105,000 Active 41 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $105,000 Active 40 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $105,000 Active 39 DOM
17. 2026-05-08
    status Active 661-char remark

    Show marketing remark (661 chars)

    Centrally located in a well-established neighborhood, this 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers a great opportunity for buyers ready to add their own style. With a functional layout and flexible living spaces, the home is well-suited for cosmetic updates without the need for a full renovation. The spacious, tree-shaded lot provides plenty of room to enhance curb appeal and create inviting outdoor living areas. Wheelchair ramps at both the front and rear entrances offer added accessibility and convenience. Priced to sell AS IS and recently reduced, this property presents strong potential at an attractive price point. Come see the possibilities before it's gone.

18. 2026-04-11
    price $105,000 661-char remark

    Show marketing remark (661 chars)

    Centrally located in a well-established neighborhood, this 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers a great opportunity for buyers ready to add their own style. With a functional layout and flexible living spaces, the home is well-suited for cosmetic updates without the need for a full renovation. The spacious, tree-shaded lot provides plenty of room to enhance curb appeal and create inviting outdoor living areas. Wheelchair ramps at both the front and rear entrances offer added accessibility and convenience. Priced to sell AS IS and recently reduced, this property presents strong potential at an attractive price point. Come see the possibilities before it's gone.

19. 2026-03-24
    status Active 661-char remark

    Show marketing remark (661 chars)

    Centrally located in a well-established neighborhood, this 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers a great opportunity for buyers ready to add their own style. With a functional layout and flexible living spaces, the home is well-suited for cosmetic updates without the need for a full renovation. The spacious, tree-shaded lot provides plenty of room to enhance curb appeal and create inviting outdoor living areas. Wheelchair ramps at both the front and rear entrances offer added accessibility and convenience. Priced to sell AS IS and recently reduced, this property presents strong potential at an attractive price point. Come see the possibilities before it's gone.

20. 2026-03-11
    status Pending 661-char remark

    Show marketing remark (661 chars)

    Centrally located in a well-established neighborhood, this 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers a great opportunity for buyers ready to add their own style. With a functional layout and flexible living spaces, the home is well-suited for cosmetic updates without the need for a full renovation. The spacious, tree-shaded lot provides plenty of room to enhance curb appeal and create inviting outdoor living areas. Wheelchair ramps at both the front and rear entrances offer added accessibility and convenience. Priced to sell AS IS and recently reduced, this property presents strong potential at an attractive price point. Come see the possibilities before it's gone.

21. 2026-02-09
    listed $115,000 Active 661-char remark

    Show marketing remark (661 chars)

    Centrally located in a well-established neighborhood, this 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers a great opportunity for buyers ready to add their own style. With a functional layout and flexible living spaces, the home is well-suited for cosmetic updates without the need for a full renovation. The spacious, tree-shaded lot provides plenty of room to enhance curb appeal and create inviting outdoor living areas. Wheelchair ramps at both the front and rear entrances offer added accessibility and convenience. Priced to sell AS IS and recently reduced, this property presents strong potential at an attractive price point. Come see the possibilities before it's gone.

22. 2022-08-01
    price $1,325
23. 2017-11-17
    soldstatus
24. 2003-03-31
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,438 · $203/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,438 · $203/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,895
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,882
• − Property taxes: −$2,438
• − Insurance: −$525
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,432
• − Management: −$1,432
• − Depreciation: −$3,055
• Taxable income: $3,133
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$752
• After-tax cash flow: $3,815/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lufkin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828550
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $41,009
• Composite: 32.81/100
• National rank: #5625
• State rank: #446 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lufkin

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #240
• US rank: #5792

Category grades

Amenities C Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lufkin, TX
• County: Angelina County · 62,696 people
• City population: 62,696
• Metro: Lufkin, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,462
• Household income: $60,205
• Rent vs Own: 42.5% rent · 57.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1159.0

Population outlook (Angelina County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 90,174 people
• By 2030: 90,697 · +0.6%
• By 2040: 91,291 · +1.2%
• By 2050: 91,168 · +1.1%
• By 2075: 88,961 · -1.3%
• By 2100: 80,590 · -10.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Hispanic / Latino 19% Black 16% Two or more races 12% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 14%

Political lean MEDSL · Angelina

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+52.0) · D 23.7% · R 75.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.0pp toward R · 2008: -35.0pp · 2024: -52.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+52.0 2020: R+46.1 2016: R+47.3 2012: R+43.9 2008: R+35.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -71.71%
• Current HPI: 213.4236
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Lufkin, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+7824.5% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Relisted — Deep East Texas MLS
• 2026-04-11 Price Changed $105,000 Deep East Texas MLS
• 2026-03-24 Relisted — Deep East Texas MLS
• 2026-03-11 Pending — Deep East Texas MLS
• 2026-02-09 Listed $115,000 Deep East Texas MLS
• 2022-08-01 Price Changed $1,325 RENT.
• 2017-11-17 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2003-03-31 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+6.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,438 · +3.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.