5188 E Ashlan Ave #128 · Fresno, CA 93727

$199,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,295 sqft · Condo · 16 Days on market

Built 1973 Average condition $154/sqft · 8% below area Est $216k · 8% under $400/mo HOA · 19% of rent ↓ 12% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.0/15.0
• Cash flow +10.4/30.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Condition / age +2.8/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this 3-bedroom, 1.5 bath, two-story PUD offering a practical layout and comfortable living spaces. Newer AC and Heating system will help with energy conservation. The floor plan features well-sized bedrooms and a functional design that makes everyday living easy and efficient.Conveniently located close to shopping, dining, and everyday services, this home provides quick access to major streets and freeways, making commuting and daily errands straightforward. The community offers a low-maintenance lifestyle, ideal for buyers seeking convenience and simplicity.

Key facts

• Practical layout
• Parking
• Pool

Tags

• NEWER AC AND HEATING SYSTEM
• PRACTICAL LAYOUT
• COMFORTABLE LIVING SPACES
• QUICK ACCESS TO MAJOR STREETS
• LOW-MAINTENANCE LIFESTYLE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $199k. Condition is rated average.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-105 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $184k (7.7% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $199k).
• Recommended offer: $184k (7.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 3.7% in Fresno — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#469 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D+, employment D+, schools D.
• Fresno Unified (urban): math 18% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #327 of 517 in CA (top 63%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 77% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 327 active listings in the ZIP; 32 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 41% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 2,426 units permitted in Fresno County in 2024 (296 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fresno County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($196k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $26k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $183,747 (7.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.66%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.27%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $215,926
• List price: $199,000
• Delta: -7.84%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.95% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-38,789
• Equity at exit: $29,672

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.25×
• Total profit: $-41,729
• Equity at exit: $17,206

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93727

• Rents YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 327
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,114 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$249 /mo · $2,985/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$400
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$444
• Net cashflow: $-105

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,247

Max offer price $183,747

Occupancy floor 100%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 32 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5138 E Ashlan Ave Fresno, CA	2.0	1.5	977	$2,469	$2.53	44d	1	0.11mi
551 W Ashlan Ave Unit 101 858 Clovis, CA	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,450	$1.45	44d	1	0.13mi
2967 Terry Ave Clovis, CA	3.0	1.5	1099	$2,095	$1.91	24d	1	0.33mi
400 W Gettysburg Ave Unit 243A Clovis, CA	2.0	1.0	904	$1,500	$1.66	3d	1	0.46mi
400 W Gettysburg Ave Unit 116B Clovis, CA	2.0	2.0	994	$1,795	$1.81	44d	1	0.46mi
400 W Gettysburg Ave Unit 206B Clovis, CA	2.0	1.0	904	$1,500	$1.66	24d	1	0.46mi
400 W Gettysburg Ave Apt 223A Clovis, CA	2.0	2.0	994	$1,700	$1.71	44d	1	0.46mi
400 W Gettysburg Ave Apt 204A Clovis, CA	2.0	1.0	904	$1,600	$1.77	44d	1	0.46mi
400 W Gettysburg Ave Unit 215B Clovis, CA	2.0	2.0	994	$1,780	$1.79	44d	1	0.46mi
400 W Gettysburg Ave Apt 208A Clovis, CA	2.0	1.0	904	$1,500	$1.66	44d	1	0.46mi
400 W Gettysburg Ave Unit 143A Clovis, CA	2.0	1.0	904	$1,650	$1.83	21d	1	0.46mi
400 W Gettysburg Ave Unit 101A Clovis, CA	2.0	1.0	904	$1,580	$1.75	24d	1	0.46mi
68 W Norwich Ave Clovis, CA	4.0	2.0	1312	$2,500	$1.91	44d	1	0.63mi
2800 Willow Ave Clovis, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	774	$1,633	$2.11	2d	7	0.70mi
2777 Willow Ave Clovis, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	812	$1,769	$2.18	2d	8	0.70mi
445 W San Gabriel Ave Clovis, CA	4.0	2.0	1448	$2,400	$1.66	24d	1	0.71mi
2810 Willow Ave Clovis, CA	2.0	2.0	890	$1,572	$1.77	10d	1	0.76mi
2810 Willow Ave Clovis, CA	2.0	2.0	928	$1,623	$1.75	24d	1	0.76mi
835 W Pico Ave Clovis, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	761	$1,595	$2.10	2d	3	0.79mi
2243 Helm Ave Unit 102 Clovis, CA	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,925	$1.75	21d	1	0.84mi
5477 E Indianapolis Ave Fresno, CA	3.0	1.0	1403	$2,295	$1.64	44d	1	0.84mi
841 W San Gabriel Ave Clovis, CA	3.0	2.0	1288	$1,995	$1.55	44d	1	0.88mi
33 W Santa Ana Ave Apt A Clovis, CA	2.0	1.5	900	$1,450	$1.61	3d	1	0.92mi
145 Rall Ave Clovis, CA	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,900	$1.58	16d	1	0.98mi
608 W Scott Ave Clovis, CA	3.0	2.0	1398	$2,100	$1.50	2d	1	1.18mi
4885 N Chestnut Ave Fresno, CA	2.0	1.5	1125	$1,565	$1.39	44d	1	1.35mi
973 Garland Ave Clovis, CA	3.0	2.0	1380	$2,485	$1.80	3d	1	1.36mi
3143 Matoian Way Fresno, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	971	$1,960	$2.02	44d	1	1.37mi
5082 Primitivo Way Fresno, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	847	$1,945	$2.30	12d	2	1.39mi
4442 N Manila Ave Fresno, CA	3.0	1.5	1033	$2,150	$2.08	20d	1	1.42mi
4619 E Indianapolis Ave Fresno, CA	3.0	2.0	1291	$2,100	$1.63	16d	1	1.45mi
322 W Barstow Ave Unit 101 Clovis, CA	2.0	2.0	1100	$2,150	$1.95	44d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $400 · $4,800/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,000 Active 16 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,000 Active 15 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,000 Active 14 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,000 Active 13 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,000 Active 11 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $199,000 Active 8 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,000 Active 7 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,000 Active 6 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $199,000 Active 5 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $199,000 Active 2 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on marketlisting id $199,000 Active 1 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,000 Active 107 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,000 Active 106 DOM
14. 2026-05-02
    status Active 576-char remark

    Show marketing remark (576 chars)

    Welcome to this 3-bedroom, 1.5 bath, two-story PUD offering a practical layout and comfortable living spaces. Newer AC and Heating system will help with energy conservation. The floor plan features well-sized bedrooms and a functional design that makes everyday living easy and efficient.Conveniently located close to shopping, dining, and everyday services, this home provides quick access to major streets and freeways, making commuting and daily errands straightforward. The community offers a low-maintenance lifestyle, ideal for buyers seeking convenience and simplicity.

15. 2026-03-12
    price $199,000 576-char remark

    Show marketing remark (576 chars)

    Welcome to this 3-bedroom, 1.5 bath, two-story PUD offering a practical layout and comfortable living spaces. Newer AC and Heating system will help with energy conservation. The floor plan features well-sized bedrooms and a functional design that makes everyday living easy and efficient.Conveniently located close to shopping, dining, and everyday services, this home provides quick access to major streets and freeways, making commuting and daily errands straightforward. The community offers a low-maintenance lifestyle, ideal for buyers seeking convenience and simplicity.

16. 2026-02-16
    price $215,000 576-char remark

    Show marketing remark (576 chars)

    Welcome to this 3-bedroom, 1.5 bath, two-story PUD offering a practical layout and comfortable living spaces. Newer AC and Heating system will help with energy conservation. The floor plan features well-sized bedrooms and a functional design that makes everyday living easy and efficient.Conveniently located close to shopping, dining, and everyday services, this home provides quick access to major streets and freeways, making commuting and daily errands straightforward. The community offers a low-maintenance lifestyle, ideal for buyers seeking convenience and simplicity.

17. 2026-01-30
    listed $225,000 Active 576-char remark

    Show marketing remark (576 chars)

    Welcome to this 3-bedroom, 1.5 bath, two-story PUD offering a practical layout and comfortable living spaces. Newer AC and Heating system will help with energy conservation. The floor plan features well-sized bedrooms and a functional design that makes everyday living easy and efficient.Conveniently located close to shopping, dining, and everyday services, this home provides quick access to major streets and freeways, making commuting and daily errands straightforward. The community offers a low-maintenance lifestyle, ideal for buyers seeking convenience and simplicity.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,365
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$2,985
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,029
• − Management: −$2,029
• − HOA: −$4,800
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable loss: −$4,410
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,058
• After-tax cash flow: $-207/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Average 55/100 Moderate rehab

This 3-bedroom, 1.5 bath condo requires moderate renovations to improve its condition and increase its value. Key areas for improvement include the kitchen and bathroom, as well as the exterior siding.

Repairs flagged

• Moderate kitchen cabinets — dated and in need of updating
• Moderate bathroom fixtures — dated and in need of updating
• Moderate exterior siding — moderate wear and visible cracks

Value-add opportunities

• Both kitchen renovation — modernizing the kitchen would increase both resale and rental value
• Both bathroom renovation — modernizing the bathroom would increase both resale and rental value
• Both exterior siding replacement — replacing the siding would improve curb appeal and increase both resale and rental value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
kitchen cabinets · dated and in need of updating	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
bathroom fixtures · dated and in need of updating	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
exterior siding · moderate wear and visible cracks	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$9,000–45,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both kitchen renovation — modernizing the kitchen would increase both resale and rental value ↑
• Both bathroom renovation — modernizing the bathroom would increase both resale and rental value ↑
• Both exterior siding replacement — replacing the siding would improve curb appeal and increase both resale and rental value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fresno Unified
• NCES district ID: 0614550
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▲ 9.00%
• Median HH income: $36,095
• Composite: 26.83/100
• National rank: #7111
• State rank: #327 of 517 in CA

Livability — Fresno

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #469
• US rank: #15907

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fresno, CA
• County: Fresno County · 834,801 people
• City population: 593,114
• Metro: Fresno, CA
• Population (ZIP): 84,107
• Household income: $87,466
• Rent vs Own: 36.2% rent · 63.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 2745.0

Population outlook (Fresno County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,042,971 people
• By 2030: 1,072,198 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 1,122,408 · +7.6%
• By 2050: 1,157,251 · +11.0%
• By 2075: 1,182,575 · +13.4%
• By 2100: 1,105,899 · +6.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 46% Asian 27% Two or more races 22% White 18% Black 5% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42%
• Common ancestry: Russian 1% Slovak 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 54% English-only · Spanish 25% Other Asian/Pacific 13% Other Indo-European 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Fresno

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 46.5% · R 50.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.5pp toward R · 2008: 2.1pp · 2024: -4.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+4.4 2020: D+7.8 2016: D+3.9 2012: R+2.9 2008: D+2.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -317.54%
• Current HPI: 379.1959
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.95%
• Metro: Fresno, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-11.6% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-02 Relisted — FRESNOMLS
• 2026-03-12 Price Changed $199,000 FRESNOMLS
• 2026-02-16 Price Changed $215,000 FRESNOMLS
• 2026-01-30 Listed $225,000 FRESNOMLS