8700 Ironwood Ave S · Cottage Grove, MN 55016

$314,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,360 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1969 10,018 sqft lot $232/sqft · 19% below area Est $372k · 15% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.5/15.0
• Cash flow +9.6/30.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Multiple Offers. Highest and Best due 9 am 9/15/14. 3 BR, 1 BA home features a new kitchen and bathroom, new carpet, new furnace and water heater, and fresh interior paint!

Key facts

• 0.23 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1969

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 space, 14 x 23)
• Utilities: City water (connected); City sewer (connected); Natural gas
• Home design: Residential property; Three-level split
• Construction: Block foundation
• Exterior features: Patio; Stone and vinyl exterior; Storage shed

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms (upper level)
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom (upper level)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Finished basement; Fireplace in family room (gas); Kitchen/Dining combination; Three-bedroom on one level layout
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $315k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-212 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $277k (11.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $234k (25.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $234k (25.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 3.4% in Cottage Grove — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#132 in MN, #2,948 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities F, commute F.
• South Washington County School District (suburban): math 52% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #40 of 301 in MN (top 13%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 14% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Nuevas Fronteras Spanish Immersion (math 47% / reading 47%, grade D-, #492 of 857 statewide, top 61%, 499 students, 16% FRL); Oltman Middle School (math 36% / reading 54%, grade D, #113 of 258 statewide, top 45%, 969 students, 36% FRL); Park High School (math 39% / reading 63%, grade D+, #127 of 471 statewide, top 27%, 1,938 students, 33% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.8%/yr); 401 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,405 units permitted in Washington County in 2024 (121 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Washington County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 7 sale attempts since 31y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $173k; list at $315k implies a 82% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $233,717 (25.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.48%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.89%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 11.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $372,469
• List price: $314,900
• Delta: -15.46%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.78% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-62,731
• Equity at exit: $46,953

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-64,473
• Equity at exit: $27,227

Cash invested: $88,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55016

• Rents YoY: 3.8%
• Active inventory: 401
• Price-to-rent: 11.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,337 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,651
• Tax from tax record: −$276 /mo · $3,312/yr
• Insurance: −$131
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$491
• Net cashflow: $-212

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,606

Max offer price $277,413

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-34	-5% $-123	+0% $-212	+5% $-301	+10% $-390
Rent	-10% $-397	-5% $-305	+0% $-212	+5% $-120	+10% $-28
Rate	-1.0pp $-54	-0.5pp $-132	base $-212	+0.5pp $-294	+1.0pp $-377

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $78,725
• Closing costs: $9,447
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7604 79th St S Cottage Grove, MN	2.0	2.0	1222	$1,995	$1.63	45d	1	1.35mi
7550 80th St S Cottage Grove, MN	3.0	1.0–2.0	993	$2,700	$2.72	0d	11	1.35mi
7750 Hinton Ave S Cottage Grove, MN	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1001	$2,209	$2.21	0d	15	1.43mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-05-18
   status Pending 521-char remark
2. 2026-05-15
   listed $314,900 Active 521-char remark
3. 2026-05-13
   historical $314,900 521-char remark
4. 2014-10-30
   soldstatus $173,000 Sold 172-char remark

   Show marketing remark (172 chars)

   Multiple Offers. Highest and Best due 9 am 9/15/14. 3 BR, 1 BA home features a new kitchen and bathroom, new carpet, new furnace and water heater, and fresh interior paint!

5. 2014-10-30
   soldstatus $173,000

   Show marketing remark (172 chars)

   Multiple Offers. Highest and Best due 9 am 9/15/14. 3 BR, 1 BA home features a new kitchen and bathroom, new carpet, new furnace and water heater, and fresh interior paint!

6. 2014-10-30
   soldstatus $173,000

   Show marketing remark (172 chars)

   Multiple Offers. Highest and Best due 9 am 9/15/14. 3 BR, 1 BA home features a new kitchen and bathroom, new carpet, new furnace and water heater, and fresh interior paint!

7. 2014-09-29
   status Pending 172-char remark

   Show marketing remark (172 chars)

   Multiple Offers. Highest and Best due 9 am 9/15/14. 3 BR, 1 BA home features a new kitchen and bathroom, new carpet, new furnace and water heater, and fresh interior paint!

8. 2014-09-18
   historical Contingent - Other 172-char remark

   Show marketing remark (172 chars)

   Multiple Offers. Highest and Best due 9 am 9/15/14. 3 BR, 1 BA home features a new kitchen and bathroom, new carpet, new furnace and water heater, and fresh interior paint!

9. 2014-09-11
   status Active 172-char remark

   Show marketing remark (172 chars)

   Multiple Offers. Highest and Best due 9 am 9/15/14. 3 BR, 1 BA home features a new kitchen and bathroom, new carpet, new furnace and water heater, and fresh interior paint!

10. 2014-09-11
    historical Contingent - Other 172-char remark

    Show marketing remark (172 chars)

    Multiple Offers. Highest and Best due 9 am 9/15/14. 3 BR, 1 BA home features a new kitchen and bathroom, new carpet, new furnace and water heater, and fresh interior paint!

11. 2014-08-18
    price $169,900 172-char remark

    Show marketing remark (172 chars)

    Multiple Offers. Highest and Best due 9 am 9/15/14. 3 BR, 1 BA home features a new kitchen and bathroom, new carpet, new furnace and water heater, and fresh interior paint!

12. 2014-07-08
    listed $181,900 Active 172-char remark

    Show marketing remark (172 chars)

    Multiple Offers. Highest and Best due 9 am 9/15/14. 3 BR, 1 BA home features a new kitchen and bathroom, new carpet, new furnace and water heater, and fresh interior paint!

13. 2014-07-08
    listed $169,900

    Show marketing remark (172 chars)

    Multiple Offers. Highest and Best due 9 am 9/15/14. 3 BR, 1 BA home features a new kitchen and bathroom, new carpet, new furnace and water heater, and fresh interior paint!

14. 2014-07-08
    listed $169,900

    Show marketing remark (172 chars)

    Multiple Offers. Highest and Best due 9 am 9/15/14. 3 BR, 1 BA home features a new kitchen and bathroom, new carpet, new furnace and water heater, and fresh interior paint!

15. 2006-07-21
    soldstatus $191,500
16. 2000-04-25
    soldstatus $111,825
17. 2000-04-06
    soldstatus $111,825
18. 2000-02-24
    historical
19. 2000-01-28
    listed $119,000
20. 1995-06-13
    soldstatus $86,000
21. 1995-05-20
    soldstatus $86,000
22. 1995-03-21
    historical
23. 1995-03-16
    listed $84,900
24. 1981-08-01
    soldstatus $62,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,312 · $276/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,419 · $285/mo
• Expected delta: +$107/yr (+$9/mo · 3.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,046
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,639
• − Property taxes: −$3,312
• − Insurance: −$1,574
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,244
• − Management: −$2,244
• − Depreciation: −$9,161
• Taxable loss: −$8,128
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,951
• After-tax cash flow: $-596/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: South Washington County School District
• NCES district ID: 2733810
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $88,285
• Composite: 51.8/100
• National rank: #1670
• State rank: #40 of 301 in MN

Livability — Cottage Grove

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #132
• US rank: #2948

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cottage Grove, MN
• County: Washington County · 235,613 people
• City population: 40,695
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 40,695
• Household income: $120,715
• Rent vs Own: 11.8% rent · 88.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 323.0

Population outlook (Washington County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 278,554 people
• By 2030: 290,465 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 310,014 · +11.3%
• By 2050: 324,118 · +16.4%
• By 2075: 362,697 · +30.2%
• By 2100: 381,491 · +37.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 7% Asian 7% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 10% Lithuanian 4% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 5% Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Washington

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+8.9) · D 53.5% · R 44.6% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.6pp toward D · 2008: 4.3pp · 2024: 8.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+8.9 2020: D+9.2 2016: D+1.9 2012: D+0.8 2008: D+4.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -258.55%
• Current HPI: 241.1084
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.78%
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+403.8% since first listed

24 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-15 Listed $314,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-13 Coming Soon $314,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-10-30 Sold (MLS) $173,000 LSAR
• 2014-10-30 Sold (MLS) $173,000 RASM
• 2014-10-30 Sold (MLS) $173,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-09-29 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-09-18 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-09-11 Relisted — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-09-11 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-08-18 Price Changed $169,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-07-08 Listed $181,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-07-08 Listed $169,900 LSAR
• 2014-07-08 Listed $169,900 RASM
• 2006-07-21 Sold (Public Records) $191,500 Public Records
• 2000-04-25 Sold (MLS) $111,825 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2000-04-06 Sold (Public Records) $111,825 Public Records
• 2000-02-24 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2000-01-28 Listed $119,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1995-06-13 Sold (Public Records) $86,000 Public Records
• 1995-05-20 Sold (MLS) $86,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1995-03-21 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1995-03-16 Listed $84,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1981-08-01 Sold (Public Records) $62,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,312 · -2.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.