18218 Paradise Mountain Rd #118 · Valley Center, CA 92082

$179,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,104 sqft · Manufactured public records · 14 Days on market

Built 1983 6,493 sqft lot Est $181k · at est.

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +8.0/15.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

LOVELY CURB APPEAL!! - 1983 2 Bed, 2 Ba at 1076 est sq ft. Nice Manufactured Home in a Senior Park 55/45 with a ramp to the carport door for only $183,000!! Located in lovely Skyline Ranch Country Club, a premier Senior Park that sits in the foothills of Valley Center. FREE golf to all residents, full clubhouse use, gym, gated community and much more. This home has a lovely front deck with a California Live Oak Tree that has grown right through it!! The back yard is large and landscaped. The carport has extended arms for easier in and out of your vehicle. The front of the home has concrete steps that lead up to the front porch. The roof was replaced about 4 years ago and the A/C was replaced around one year ago. There are Plantation Shutters in several rooms. Skyline Ranch is a land leased park, the monthly Space rent here is 881.97. Please come and see this wonderful home located in a great Senior Park with many amenities.

Key facts

• Mature encino tree
• 6,493 sq ft lot
• 2 parking spots

Tags

• PRIVATE GATED GOLF COMMUNITY
• CUSTOM FRONT PORCH DECK
• MATURE ENCINO TREE
• NEW GOLF CART INCLUDED
• NEWLY PAINTED CABINETRY
• REFINISHED COUNTERTOPS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Rent includes pool (for rentals) ; Verify with country club management for exclusions and specific rules
• Financial info: Land lease (monthly)
• HOA & community: Senior community; Community amenities include pool, spa, clubhouse, banquet facilities, meeting room, picnic area, barbecue/outdoor cooking area, gym/exercise room, billiard room, recreational multipurpose room, dog park, controlled access, common RV parking, golf course access, maintained grounds, onsite property management; call for rules and specifics; Park name: Skyline Ranch Country Club

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking; Attached carport for 2 cars
• Security: Card/code access; Carbon monoxide detector(s); Smoke detector; Gated community; Onsite resident manager
• Utilities: District/public water; Private sewer
• Home design: Single-story home; Mobile home (model 1563K, 12' x 46'); Turnkey condition; Mobile home remains; Views
• Construction: Composition roof; Masonite exterior; Pier jacks foundation; Vinyl and wood fencing
• Exterior features: Awning; Rain gutters; Open patio; Deck; In-ground community heated saltwater pool with lap lanes (fenced); Pond on lot; Lake on lot; Sprinkler system (front and rear) with drip sprinklers in areas; Lawn and landscaped areas; Back yard; Close to clubhouse; 1 shed

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Propane range; Propane oven; Range/stove hood; Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: All bedrooms on main floor; Main floor bedroom
• Flooring: Vinyl; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Exhaust fan(s); Shower
• Heating & cooling: Central cooling (gas); Central furnace heating
• Interior features: Crown moldings; High ceilings (9+ feet); Ceiling fan; Pantry; Recessed lighting; Open floor plan; French doors; Plantation shutters; Front porch or carport entry
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room; Washer included; Dryer included

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $179k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $179k).
• Cap rate 14.2% vs local median 2.5% in Valley Center — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 52/100 on livability (#1,017 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, housing B; Watch: commute C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Valley Center-Pauma Unified (rural): math 16% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #367 of 517 in CA (top 71%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 165 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 11,759 units permitted in San Diego County in 2024 (7,244 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Diego County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $50k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 8 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $179,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.71% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.22%
• Cash-on-cash: 28.32%
• DSCR: 2.26
• GRM: 4.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $181,056
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
18218 Paradise Mountain Rd Spc 211 Lot 211	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,248 (+13%)	2mo	$205,000	$164	76
18218 Paradise Mountain Rd #13	0.13mi	2/2.0	1,152 (+4%)	20mo	$99,900	$87	70

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.93×
• Total profit: $46,366
• Equity at exit: $26,689

10-year hold

• IRR: 30.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.74×
• Total profit: $137,557
• Equity at exit: $15,477

Cash invested: $50,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92082

• Active inventory: 165
• Price-to-rent: 4.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,063 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$939
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$224 /mo · $2,685/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$643
• Net cashflow: $1,183

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,566

Max offer price $179,000

Occupancy floor 56%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,306	-5% $1,245	+0% $1,183	+5% $1,121	+10% $1,059
Rent	-10% $941	-5% $1,062	+0% $1,183	+5% $1,304	+10% $1,425
Rate	-1.0pp $1,273	-0.5pp $1,228	base $1,183	+0.5pp $1,136	+1.0pp $1,089

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,750
• Closing costs: $5,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $179,000 Active 14 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $179,000 Active 13 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $179,000 Active 12 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $179,000 Active 11 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $179,000 Active 9 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $179,000 Active 8 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $179,000 Active 5 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $179,000 Active 4 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   remarks 695-char remark
10. 2026-06-07
    listed $179,000 Active 3 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 10/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 1 d/yr ≥97°F today · 3 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 10 unhealthy d/yr today · 12 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,755
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,027
• − Property taxes: −$2,685
• − Insurance: −$895
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,940
• − Management: −$2,940
• − Depreciation: −$5,207
• Taxable income: $12,060
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,894
• After-tax cash flow: $11,298/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Valley Center-Pauma Unified
• NCES district ID: 0600069
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $74,438
• Composite: 24.32/100
• National rank: #7705
• State rank: #367 of 517 in CA

Livability — Valley Center

• Score: 52/100
• State rank: #1017
• US rank: #24938

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C- Cost of living F Crime B- Employment A+ Housing B Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: San Diego County · 3,178,799 people
• City population: 21,727
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• Population (ZIP): 21,727
• Household income: $126,544
• Rent vs Own: 11.7% rent · 88.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 241.0

Population outlook (San Diego County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,678,185 people
• By 2030: 3,856,546 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 4,171,407 · +13.4%
• By 2050: 4,421,607 · +20.2%
• By 2075: 4,831,599 · +31.4%
• By 2100: 4,832,502 · +31.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Hispanic / Latino 38% Two or more races 23% Native American 4% Asian 3% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 33%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 22% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Diego

• 2024 margin: D (+16.8) · D 56.9% · R 40.1% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.6pp toward D · 2008: 10.2pp · 2024: 16.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.8 2020: D+22.8 2016: D+17.8 2012: D+5.1 2008: D+10.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -293.00%
• Current HPI: 294.6017
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+159.8% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Listed $179,000 CRMLS
• 2022-01-20 Sold (MLS) $176,500 CRMLS
• 2021-12-09 Pending — CRMLS
• 2021-10-30 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2021-10-30 Price Changed $183,000 CRMLS
• 2021-08-18 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2021-08-05 Listed $173,000 CRMLS
• 2016-03-21 Sold (MLS) $68,000 CRMLS
• 2016-03-21 Sold (MLS) $68,000 SDMLS
• 2016-02-29 Pending — SDMLS
• 2016-02-19 Listed $74,888 SDMLS
• 2016-02-19 Listed $74,888 CRMLS
• 2012-05-11 Sold (MLS) $22,000 CRMLS
• 2012-04-12 Price Changed $32,900 SDMLS
• 2011-12-21 Listed $32,900 CRMLS
• 2008-10-16 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2008-10-16 Listing Removed — SDMLS
• 2008-04-17 Listed $68,900 CRMLS
• 2008-04-17 Listed $68,900 SDMLS

Property tax history

-14.6%/yr

Latest (2013): $347 · -57.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.