6 Deer Path · Quogue, NY 11959

$1,785,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,102 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 28 Days on market

Built 1985 1.01 ac lot $849/sqft · 10% above area Est $1857k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.5/30.0
• ARV discount +9.3/15.0
• Appreciation +7.0/10.0
• Schools +6.6/10.0
• DSCR +6.5/10.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

A traditional Quogue ranch with so much to offer. Set on one acre on the quiet lane of Deer Path with proximity to the village and beaches of Quogue. This house offers a classic lay out with four bedrooms and three baths, a great room with a fireplace and a separate, sun-filled kitchen. The first-floor primary suite has sliders out to the deck; there is a guest bedroom with an en-suite bath and two more bedrooms. With high ceilings the home feels larger than it is and windows abound so the light streams everywhere. The front & back exterior is surrounded by trees that offer privacy and low maintenance. A large heated pool and ample deck in the rear of the property make this a perfect

Key facts

• One acre
• Great room
• Sliders out to deck

Tags

• ONE ACRE
• GREAT ROOM
• FIREPLACE
• SUN-FILLED KITCHEN
• FIRST-FLOOR PRIMARY SUITE
• SLIDERS OUT TO DECK

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area recorded from public records
• Financial info: Not specified
• HOA & community: Not specified

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway (no carport)
• Security: Not specified
• Utilities: Septic tank; No utilities specified
• Home design: Single family residence; One story
• Construction: Frame construction with wood siding; Year built not specified
• Exterior features: Back yard; Landscaped yard; No waterfront; In-ground vinyl pool (private)

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas cooktop; Gas oven; Range; Oven; Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: One-level home
• Flooring: Not specified
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning; Wood-burning fireplace (1)
• Interior features: First-floor bedroom; First-floor full bathroom; Entrance foyer; Open kitchen; Primary bedroom on main level; Deck; Patio; Full unfinished basement
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $1.78M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($28k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($19k rent vs $1.78M).
• Recommended offer: $1.76M (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#600 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, health & safety B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Quogue Union Free School District (suburban): math 70% / reading 80% proficiency, ranked #125 of 755 in NY (top 17%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 4% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Quogue Elementary School (math 87% / reading 92%, grade A+, #45 of 2,108 statewide, top 3%, 84 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools at 0% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 90% at this address vs 75% district-wide (+14 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Quogue Union Free School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 37 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $84k of equity ($12k loan paydown + $72k appreciation (4.0% local appreciation)).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (4.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $500k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$135k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($1.76M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $1,758,225 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.65%
• DSCR: 1.25
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $1,857,470
• List price: $1,785,000
• Delta: -3.90%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 19 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
58 Old Depot	0.52mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,156 (+3%)	3mo	$1,325,000	$615	62
20 Foster Rd	0.38mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,241 (+7%)	17mo	$1,725,000	$770	52
8 Hidden Path	0.63mi	4/2.0	2,406 (+14%)	6mo	$1,210,000	$503	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.01% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.93×
• Total profit: $462,686
• Equity at exit: $906,340

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.65×
• Total profit: $1,322,370
• Equity at exit: $1,483,446

Cash invested: $499,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11959

• Home prices YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 37
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $18,594 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$9,361
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$2,231 /mo · $26,775/yr
• Insurance: −$744
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$3,905
• Net cashflow: $2,353

Break-even live

Break-even rent $15,615

Max offer price $1,785,000

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $3,587	-5% $2,970	+0% $2,353	+5% $1,736	+10% $1,120
Rent	-10% $884	-5% $1,619	+0% $2,353	+5% $3,088	+10% $3,822
Rate	-1.0pp $3,252	-0.5pp $2,807	base $2,353	+0.5pp $1,891	+1.0pp $1,420

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $446,250
• Closing costs: $53,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
24 Quogue Riverhead Rd Quogue, NY	3.0	3.0	2054	$15,000	$7.30	26d	1	0.19mi
2941 Quogue Riverhead Rd East Quogue, NY	3.0	2.5	2044	$80,000	$39.14	26d	1	0.67mi
718 Montauk Hwy East Quogue, NY	5.0	2.0	2500	$25,000	$10.00	26d	1	0.85mi
8 Paynes Ln East Quogue, NY	4.0	2.0	1776	$18,000	$10.14	45d	1	1.00mi
1 Whippoorwill Ln East Quogue, NY	4.0	4.0	2483	$29,000	$11.68	7d	1	1.01mi
11 Post Xing East Quogue, NY	3.0	2.0	2926	$20,000	$6.84	20d	1	1.01mi
85 Lewis Rd East Quogue, NY	3.0	2.0	1593	$4,450	$2.79	45d	1	1.11mi
131 Lewis Rd East Quogue, NY	5.0	3.0	1541	$12,000	$7.79	20d	1	1.12mi
114 Spinney Rd East Quogue, NY	4.0	3.0	2201	$18,000	$8.18	20d	1	1.26mi
16 Vail Ave East Quogue, NY	5.0	2.0	1796	$4,500	$2.51	45d	1	1.33mi
10 Fox Hollow Dr East Quogue, NY	4.0	3.5	2750	$30,000	$10.91	45d	1	1.37mi
21 Bayside Ave East Quogue, NY	4.0	3.0	2900	$14,000	$4.83	45d	1	1.39mi
36 Walker Ave East Quogue, NY	5.0	3.0	2500	$23,000	$9.20	9d	1	1.40mi
2 Bayside Ave East Quogue, NY	4.0	3.0	2280	$80,000	$35.09	23d	1	1.41mi
69 Whippoorwill Ln Patchogue, NY	4.0	4.0	2945	$20,000	$6.79	0d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $1,785,000 Pending 28 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $1,785,000 Active 26 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $1,785,000 Active 25 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $1,785,000 Active 24 DOM
5. 2026-06-04
   days on market $1,785,000 Active 21 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $1,785,000 Active 20 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $1,785,000 Active 19 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $1,785,000 Active 18 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $1,785,000 Active 17 DOM
10. 2026-04-30
    listed $1,785,000 Active 733-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $223,122
• − Mortgage interest: −$99,988
• − Property taxes: −$26,775
• − Insurance: −$8,925
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$17,850
• − Management: −$17,850
• − Depreciation: −$51,927
• Taxable loss: −$192
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$46
• After-tax cash flow: $28,284/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Quogue Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3624060
• Math proficiency: 70% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 80% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $66,746
• Composite: 66.09/100
• National rank: #960
• State rank: #125 of 755 in NY

Livability — Quogue

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #600
• US rank: #10895

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing B- Health & safety B+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Quogue, NY
• City population: 576
• Population (ZIP): 576

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Two or more races 23% Hispanic / Latino 23% Black 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 21% Portuguese 7% Scotch-Irish 4%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 17%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.01%
• Current HPI: 364.8746
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-30 Listed $1,785,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

-1.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,280 · +5.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.