200 Brannan St #126 · San Francisco, CA 94107

$475,381

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,013 sqft · Condo public records · 38 Days on market

Built 2004 $236/sqft · 72% below area $1244/mo HOA · 14% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +7.4/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

3-bedroom Below Market Rate (BMR) housing opportunity available at 120% Area Median Income (AMI). The AMI includes the 20% increase as allowed under the temporary waivers. The qualifying AMI with the temporary waivers for this listing will be at 120%. Maximum income for 2 people = $149,650, 3 people = $168,300; 4 = $187,000, 5 = $201,950 etc. Must be 1st-time homebuyer & income eligible. Unit available thru the Mayor's Office of Housing and Community Development (MOHCD) & subject to resale controls, monitoring & other restrictions. The unit will be listed on DAHLIA, the SF Housing Portal (https://housing. sfgov. org) starting on the application date, 05/12/2026. Visit http

Key facts

• $1,244 HOA
• Garage
• Built 2004

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Has homeowners association; Fitness center; Monthly HOA fee (includes reserves, water, sewer, trash, management fee, common area maintenance)

Exterior

• Parking: 1 garage space; 1 covered space; Below-building parking; Garage door opener
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Condominium; Residential property; Built in 2004
• Construction: Brick and concrete construction
• Exterior features: No yard

Interior

• Kitchen: Tile counters; Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Free‑standing range
• Bedrooms: Upper level: 2 bedrooms; Street level: 1 bedroom
• Flooring: Tile; Carpet; Wood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air
• Interior features: No additional rooms; Double-pane windows
• Laundry & utility: Washer/dryer hookups only

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $475k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $3k ($35k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($9k rent vs $475k).
• Recommended offer: $461k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.6% vs local median 2.1% in San Francisco — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#90 in CA, #3,143 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• San Francisco Unified (urban): math 50% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #322 of 1,400 in CA (top 23%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+18.9%/yr); 136 active listings in the ZIP; 27 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 8d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 750 units permitted in San Francisco County in 2024 (688 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $9,155/mo this rent would consume 60% of the median local household income ($183k/yr) (locally 1851% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $26k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $23k appreciation (4.8% local appreciation)).
• San Francisco County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (4.8% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $133k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$42k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($461k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $461,119 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.93% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 26.19%
• DSCR: 2.17
• GRM: 4.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $1,728,276
• List price: $475,381
• Delta: -72.49%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

4.81% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 39.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.54×
• Total profit: $338,585
• Equity at exit: $263,903

10-year hold

• IRR: 40.8%
• Equity multiple: 8.39×
• Total profit: $983,736
• Equity at exit: $450,985

Cash invested: $133,107 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City San Francisco: 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+57

SF Rent Ordinance + Eviction Protections; relocation $10k+; one of strictest in US.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94107

• Home prices YoY: 2.6%
• Rents YoY: 18.9%
• Active inventory: 136
• Price-to-rent: 4.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $9,155 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,493
• Tax from tax record: −$393 /mo · $4,711/yr
• Insurance: −$198
• HOA: −$1,244
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,923
• Net cashflow: $2,905

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,478

Max offer price $475,381

Occupancy floor 63%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $118,845
• Closing costs: $14,261
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 27 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
425 1st St San Francisco, CA	3.0	3.0	1928	$13,995	$7.26	20d	1	0.18mi
425 1st St #5402 San Francisco, CA	3.0	2.0	1449	$20,888	$14.42	24d	1	0.19mi
399 Fremont St San Francisco, CA	2.0	1.0–2.5	1077	$10,288	$9.55	1d	43	0.26mi
340 Fremont St San Francisco, CA	3.0	1.0–3.0	1146	$8,359	$7.29	2d	5	0.26mi
355 1st St #2504 San Francisco, CA	2.0	2.0	1408	$8,250	$5.86	7d	1	0.27mi
1 St Francis Pl San Francisco, CA	3.0	1.0–2.0	923	$4,384	$4.75	2d	2	0.41mi
39 Tehama St San Francisco, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1291	$20,493	$15.87	2d	14	0.41mi
1 Steuart Ln #702 San Francisco, CA	2.0	2.5	1689	$12,500	$7.40	4d	1	0.53mi
1 Bluxome St San Francisco, CA	1.0–2.0	2.0	1750	$7,700	$4.40	43d	2	0.55mi
255 King St San Francisco, CA	3.0	1.0–2.5	1228	$8,160	$6.64	2d	1	0.55mi
188 Minna St Unit 27AL San Francisco, CA	3.0	3.0	2027	$30,000	$14.80	43d	1	0.64mi
235 Berry St #316 San Francisco, CA	2.0	2.5	1610	$7,595	$4.72	43d	1	0.68mi
765 Market St Unit 34E San Francisco, CA	2.0	2.5	1453	$9,000	$6.19	17d	1	0.81mi
765 Market St Unit 34 San Francisco, CA	2.0	2.5	1453	$9,200	$6.33	43d	1	0.81mi
673 Brannan St San Francisco, CA	1.0–5.0	1.0–2.0	1302	$5,406	$4.15	2d	2	0.82mi
333 Bush St San Francisco, CA	2.0	2.0	1733	$11,253	$6.49	24d	2	0.85mi
333 Bush St San Francisco, CA	2.0	2.0	1654	$10,975	$6.64	43d	2	0.85mi
333 Bush St #4006 San Francisco, CA	2.0	2.0	1798	$15,000	$8.34	4d	1	0.86mi
718 Long Bridge St San Francisco, CA	2.0	2.0	1400	$8,000	$5.71	7d	1	0.87mi
855 Brannan St San Francisco, CA	3.0	1.0–2.0	958	$7,140	$7.45	1d	5	1.14mi
875 California St #202 San Francisco, CA	2.0	2.0	1474	$13,000	$8.82	43d	1	1.16mi
72 Langton St San Francisco, CA	2.0	2.0	1470	$5,950	$4.05	4d	1	1.16mi
1010 16th St San Francisco, CA	2.0	1.0–2.0	963	$5,786	$6.01	2d	8	1.28mi
1340 Taylor St San Francisco, CA	4.0	3.0	2110	$21,420	$10.15	15d	1	1.46mi
1310 Jones St San Francisco, CA	2.0	2.0	1367	$10,250	$7.50	3d	4	1.48mi
30 Washburn St San Francisco, CA	2.0	2.0	1576	$5,995	$3.80	24d	1	1.48mi
30 Washburn St Unit 3 San Francisco, CA	2.0	2.0	1576	$5,995	$3.80	7d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $1,244 · $14,928/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $475,381 Active 38 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $475,381 Active 37 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $475,381 Active 36 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $475,381 Active 35 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $475,381 Active 33 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $475,381 Active 32 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $475,381 Active 29 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $475,381 Active 28 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $475,381 Active 27 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $475,381 Active 24 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $475,381 Active 23 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $475,381 Active 22 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $475,381 Active 21 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $475,381 Active 20 DOM
15. 2026-05-11
    listed $475,381 Active 938-char remark
16. 2026-05-11
    historical $475,381 938-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,711 · $393/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,711 · $393/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 12% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥81°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 8/10 Severe 15 unhealthy d/yr today · 15 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $109,860
• − Mortgage interest: −$26,629
• − Property taxes: −$4,711
• − Insurance: −$2,377
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$8,789
• − Management: −$8,789
• − HOA: −$14,928
• − Depreciation: −$13,829
• Taxable income: $29,809
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$7,154
• After-tax cash flow: $27,705/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: San Francisco Unified
• NCES district ID: 0634410
• Math proficiency: 50% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $81,249
• Composite: 50.14/100
• National rank: #4088
• State rank: #322 of 1400 in CA

Livability — San Francisco

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #90
• US rank: #3143

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A+ Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Francisco, CA
• County: San Francisco County · 827,552 people
• City population: 827,552
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 31,823
• Household income: $182,897
• Rent vs Own: 64.3% rent · 35.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1851.0

Population outlook (San Francisco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,030,936 people
• By 2030: 1,110,409 · +7.7%
• By 2040: 1,270,010 · +23.2%
• By 2050: 1,435,001 · +39.2%
• By 2075: 1,779,074 · +72.6%
• By 2100: 1,966,767 · +90.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 45% Asian 32% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 12% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 36% · China, Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 59% English-only · Chinese 12% Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 5%

Political lean MEDSL · San Francisco

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+64.8) · D 80.3% · R 15.5% · Other 4.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.7pp toward R · 2008: 70.5pp · 2024: 64.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+64.8 2020: D+72.5 2016: D+76.1 2012: D+70.2 2008: D+70.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.81%
• Current HPI: 192.3569
• Rent YoY: ▲ 18.89%
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Listed $475,381 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-05-11 Coming Soon $475,381 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR

Property tax history

+2.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,711 · +2.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.