33000 Cape Kiwanda Dr Unit 2 Wk 36 · Pacific City, OR 97135

$74,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,350 sqft · SingleFamily · 127 Days on market

Built 2007 Good condition $55/sqft · 24% above area Est $60k · 24% over $533/mo HOA · 23% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +5.4/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

Perfect beach level location on the Oregon Coast! Luxury living at it's finest. Hassle-free, worry-free, maintenance-free! Enjoy 3 weeks per year forever. Ocean views from every window, gourmet kitchen, heated bathroom slate floors, jetted soaking tub and MUCH MORE! 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, 1350 sq/ft. grand floor plan. Ocean front great room, primary suite and guest bedroom. Taxes & insurance, reserves, all maintenance and utilities is included in annual HOA. Enjoy all of the amenities of the Headlands Lodge, Meridian restaurant and Spa. Affordable luxury awaits!

Key facts

• Jetted soaking tub
• Primary suite
• Gourmet kitchen

Tags

• GOURMET KITCHEN
• HEATED BATHROOM SLATE FLOORS
• JETTED SOAKING TUB
• OCEAN FRONT GREAT ROOM
• PRIMARY SUITE
• GUEST BEDROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $75k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $808 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $75k).
• Recommended offer: $66k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 19.2% vs local median 1.9% in Pacific City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#173 in OR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment B, housing B; Watch: commute D+, health & safety D+, schools F.
• Nestucca Valley SD 101J (rural): math 33% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #101 of 183 in OR (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 116 active listings in the ZIP; 86 units permitted in Tillamook County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($518 loan paydown + $546 appreciation (0.7% local appreciation)).
• Tillamook County population projected at +3% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (0.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 127 days — a 12% lower offer ($66k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 23% of rent.

Recommended offer $65,912 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 127 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 19.25%
• Cash-on-cash: 46.26%
• DSCR: 3.06
• GRM: 2.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $60,405
• List price: $74,900
• Delta: 24.00%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
33000 Cape Kiwanda Dr. Unit 6 wk 35 Dr	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,350 (0%)	9mo	$94,000	$70	88
33000 Cape Kiwanda Dr Unit 5, week 27	0.01mi	3/2.0	1,150 (-15%)	8mo	$72,000	$63	68
5940 Summerhouse Ln Unit Share A2	0.46mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,346 (-0%)	9mo	$40,000	$30	64
33000 Cape Kiwanda Dr Unit 8, week 29	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,150 (-15%)	12mo	$45,000	$39	64
5940 Summerhouse Ln Unit Share A1	0.46mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,346 (-0%)	10mo	$40,000	$30	63
34210 Ocean Dr	0.63mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,381 (+2%)	3mo	$1,000,000	$724	60
5785 Barefoot Ln	0.38mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,314 (-3%)	19mo	$619,000	$471	56
6095 Beachcomber Ln	0.55mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,330 (-2%)	13mo	$616,000	$463	56
5990 Summerhouse Ln	0.50mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,268 (-6%)	10mo	$632,000	$498	54
5835 Barefoot Ln	0.41mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,249 (-8%)	11mo	$573,000	$459	52
5755 Barefoot Ln	0.38mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,176 (-13%)	6mo	$583,500	$496	50
34000 Venture Blvd	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,487 (+10%)	14mo	$625,000	$420	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.73% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 48.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.49×
• Total profit: $52,267
• Equity at exit: $24,520

10-year hold

• IRR: 50.8%
• Equity multiple: 7.02×
• Total profit: $126,154
• Equity at exit: $31,787

Cash invested: $20,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97135

• Home prices YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 116
• Price-to-rent: 2.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,353 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$94 /mo · $1,124/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$533
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$494
• Net cashflow: $808

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,330

Max offer price $74,900

Occupancy floor 61%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $860	-5% $834	+0% $808	+5% $783	+10% $757
Rent	-10% $623	-5% $715	+0% $808	+5% $901	+10% $994
Rate	-1.0pp $846	-0.5pp $827	base $808	+0.5pp $789	+1.0pp $769

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,725
• Closing costs: $2,247
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $533 · $6,396/yr

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $74,900 Active 127 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $74,900 Active 125 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $74,900 Active 124 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $74,900 Active 123 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $74,900 Active 122 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $74,900 Active 120 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $74,900 Active 119 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $74,900 Active 116 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $74,900 Active 115 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $74,900 Active 114 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $74,900 Active 113 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $74,900 Active 110 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $74,900 Active 109 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $74,900 Active 108 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $74,900 Active 107 DOM
16. 2026-02-13
    listed $79,900 Active 577-char remark

    Show marketing remark (577 chars)

    Perfect beach level location on the Oregon Coast! Luxury living at it's finest. Hassle-free, worry-free, maintenance-free! Enjoy 3 weeks per year forever. Ocean views from every window, gourmet kitchen, heated bathroom slate floors, jetted soaking tub and MUCH MORE! 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, 1350 sq/ft. grand floor plan. Ocean front great room, primary suite and guest bedroom. Taxes & insurance, reserves, all maintenance and utilities is included in annual HOA. Enjoy all of the amenities of the Headlands Lodge, Meridian restaurant and Spa. Affordable luxury awaits!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 8 d/yr ≥77°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 11 unhealthy d/yr today · 11 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,239
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,196
• − Property taxes: −$1,124
• − Insurance: −$374
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,259
• − Management: −$2,259
• − HOA: −$6,396
• − Depreciation: −$2,179
• Taxable income: $9,452
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,269
• After-tax cash flow: $7,433/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This luxury beachfront property offers stunning ocean views and is in excellent condition, requiring no immediate repairs or maintenance. The high ROI updates include enhancing the oceanfront experience and integrating smart home technology.

Value-add opportunities

• Both oceanfront furniture — enhances the ocean view and adds to the luxury
• Both smart home integration — improves convenience and adds modern appeal

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both oceanfront furniture — enhances the ocean view and adds to the luxury ↑
• Both smart home integration — improves convenience and adds modern appeal ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Nestucca Valley SD 101J
• NCES district ID: 4108700
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $41,958
• Composite: 37.3/100
• National rank: #8956
• State rank: #101 of 183 in OR

Livability — Pacific City

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #173
• US rank: #10340

Category grades

Amenities F Commute D+ Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment B Housing B Health & safety D+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pacific City, OR
• City population: 1,505
• Population (ZIP): 1,505

Population outlook (Tillamook County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 26,318 people
• By 2030: 26,603 · +1.1%
• By 2040: 26,898 · +2.2%
• By 2050: 27,129 · +3.1%
• By 2075: 27,858 · +5.9%
• By 2100: 26,212 · -0.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 8% Italian 5% Romanian 5%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Tillamook

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.9% · R 49.2% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.2pp toward R · 2008: 9.9pp · 2024: -1.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.4 2020: R+1.7 2016: R+5.9 2012: D+4.7 2008: D+9.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.73%
• Current HPI: 197.7747
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-02-13 Listed $79,900 OCMLS