11703 Greenmesa Dr · Houston, TX 77044

$149,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,568 sqft · Manufactured public records · 2 Days on market

Built 2000 7,701 sqft lot $95/sqft · 7% below area Est $160k · 7% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +10.6/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.8/10.0
• Appreciation +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful 4 Bedroom property close nearby freeways with plenty of upgrades and nestled in a great community. Open floor plan, upgraded flooring, nice back patio & backyard. Great location. Unit available 02/22/2023

Key facts

• Upgraded flooring
• Open floorplan
• Back patio

Tags

• UPGRADED FLOORING
• BACK PATIO
• OPEN FLOORPLAN

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Leases considered

Exterior

• Security: Security gate
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 2000
• Construction: Aluminum siding, brick, and wood siding construction; Metal roof
• Exterior features: Corner lot; Security gate

Interior

• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (13 x 13); Bedroom on the first floor (13 x 11); Bedroom on the first floor (12 x 9); Bedroom on the first floor (10 x 9)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Total of 4 rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $149k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $718 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $149k).
• Cap rate 12.1% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Sheldon ISD (suburban): math 19% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #746 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Garrett El (math 17% / reading 19%, grade F, #3,785 of 4,322 statewide, top 88%, 672 students, 92% FRL); Michael R Null Middle (math 15% / reading 23%, grade F, #1,466 of 1,662 statewide, top 89%, 1,164 students, 89% FRL); C E King H S (math 19% / reading 30%, grade F, #1,264 of 1,632 statewide, top 82%, 3,473 students, 82% FRL) — zoned schools average 87% FRL vs 72% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 340 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.6%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-1.6% appreciation + 0.9% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 14 sale attempts since 15y ago; this cycle's ask is 8930% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $149,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.48% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.08%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.65%
• DSCR: 1.92
• GRM: 5.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $159,978
• List price: $149,000
• Delta: 6.26%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.59% appreciation · 0.92% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.63×
• Total profit: $26,120
• Equity at exit: $31,822

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.73×
• Total profit: $72,180
• Equity at exit: $29,999

Cash invested: $41,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77044

• Home prices YoY: -0.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.9%
• Active inventory: 340
• Price-to-rent: 5.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,205 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$781
• Tax from tax record: −$181 /mo · $2,167/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$463
• Net cashflow: $718

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,296

Max offer price $149,000

Occupancy floor 62%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $802	-5% $760	+0% $718	+5% $676	+10% $634
Rent	-10% $544	-5% $631	+0% $718	+5% $805	+10% $892
Rate	-1.0pp $793	-0.5pp $756	base $718	+0.5pp $679	+1.0pp $640

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,250
• Closing costs: $4,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11711 Greenglen Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1080	$1,603	$1.48	3d	1	0.05mi
11950 Greensbrook Forest Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1080	$1,500	$1.39	20d	1	0.27mi

Listing history 39 events

1. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on marketlisting id $149,000 Active 2 DOM
2. 2026-06-04
   days on market $169,999 Active 128 DOM
3. 2026-06-03
   days on market $169,999 Active 127 DOM
4. 2026-06-02
   days on market $169,999 Active 126 DOM
5. 2026-06-01
   days on market $169,999 Active 125 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   days on market $169,999 Active 124 DOM
7. 2026-05-12
   listed $1,650
8. 2026-05-11
   historical $1,700
9. 2026-03-03
   listed $1,700
10. 2026-03-03
    historical $1,850
11. 2026-01-29
    soldstatus
12. 2026-01-28
    listed $1,850
13. 2026-01-27
    listed $169,999 Active 217-char remark
14. 2023-03-22
    soldstatus
15. 2023-03-20
    soldstatus Sold 220-char remark

    Show marketing remark (220 chars)

    Beautiful 4 Bedroom property close nearby freeways with plenty of upgrades and nestled in a great community. Open floor plan, upgraded flooring, nice back patio & backyard. Great location. Unit available 02/22/2023

16. 2023-03-17
    status Pending 220-char remark

    Show marketing remark (220 chars)

    Beautiful 4 Bedroom property close nearby freeways with plenty of upgrades and nestled in a great community. Open floor plan, upgraded flooring, nice back patio & backyard. Great location. Unit available 02/22/2023

17. 2023-03-15
    status Active 220-char remark

    Show marketing remark (220 chars)

    Beautiful 4 Bedroom property close nearby freeways with plenty of upgrades and nestled in a great community. Open floor plan, upgraded flooring, nice back patio & backyard. Great location. Unit available 02/22/2023

18. 2023-03-03
    status Pending 220-char remark

    Show marketing remark (220 chars)

    Beautiful 4 Bedroom property close nearby freeways with plenty of upgrades and nestled in a great community. Open floor plan, upgraded flooring, nice back patio & backyard. Great location. Unit available 02/22/2023

19. 2023-02-24
    status Option Pending 220-char remark

    Show marketing remark (220 chars)

    Beautiful 4 Bedroom property close nearby freeways with plenty of upgrades and nestled in a great community. Open floor plan, upgraded flooring, nice back patio & backyard. Great location. Unit available 02/22/2023

20. 2023-02-18
    listed $160,000 Active 220-char remark

    Show marketing remark (220 chars)

    Beautiful 4 Bedroom property close nearby freeways with plenty of upgrades and nestled in a great community. Open floor plan, upgraded flooring, nice back patio & backyard. Great location. Unit available 02/22/2023

21. 2021-12-21
    soldstatus Sold
22. 2021-12-21
    soldstatus
23. 2021-11-28
    status Pending
24. 2021-11-20
    status Option Pending
25. 2021-11-01
    status Active
26. 2021-10-28
    status Option Pending
27. 2021-10-26
    listed $139,900 Active
28. 2021-09-20
    historical
29. 2021-06-07
    status Active
30. 2021-06-02
    status Option Pending
31. 2020-11-29
    status Active
32. 2020-11-14
    status Pending
33. 2020-11-02
    status Option Pending
34. 2020-10-04
    listed $139,900 Active
35. 2012-04-27
    soldstatus
36. 2012-01-13
    soldstatus
37. 2011-12-31
    historical
38. 2011-11-15
    listed $30,000
39. 1999-11-22
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,167 · $181/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,727 · $227/mo
• Expected delta: +$560/yr (+$47/mo · 25.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,460
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,346
• − Property taxes: −$2,167
• − Insurance: −$745
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,117
• − Management: −$2,117
• − Depreciation: −$4,335
• Taxable income: $6,634
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,592
• After-tax cash flow: $7,023/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sheldon ISD
• NCES district ID: 4839990
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $49,443
• Composite: 19.5/100
• National rank: #8772
• State rank: #746 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 58,347
• Household income: $95,000
• Rent vs Own: 24.1% rent · 75.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1332.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 44% Black 32% White 19% Two or more races 18% Native American 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 36%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada
• Languages at home: 61% English-only · Spanish 35% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.59%
• Current HPI: 215.5736
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.92%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-94.5% since first listed

39 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Rental Removed $1,650 HARMLS
• 2026-06-08 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-06-06 Listed for Rent $1,650 HARMLS
• 2026-06-05 Rental Removed $1,650 HARMLS
• 2026-06-05 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-06-05 Listed $149,000 HARMLS
• 2026-05-12 Listed for Rent $1,650 HARMLS
• 2026-05-11 Rental Removed $1,700 HARMLS
• 2026-03-03 Listed for Rent $1,700 HARMLS
• 2026-03-03 Rental Removed $1,850 HARMLS
• 2026-01-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2026-01-28 Listed for Rent $1,850 HARMLS
• 2026-01-27 Listed $169,999 HARMLS
• 2023-03-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-03-20 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2023-03-17 Pending — HARMLS
• 2023-03-15 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2023-03-03 Pending — HARMLS
• 2023-02-24 Pending — HARMLS
• 2023-02-18 Listed $160,000 HARMLS
• 2021-12-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-12-21 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2021-11-28 Pending — HARMLS
• 2021-11-20 Pending — HARMLS
• 2021-11-01 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2021-10-28 Pending — HARMLS
• 2021-10-26 Listed $139,900 HARMLS
• 2021-09-20 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2021-06-07 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2021-06-02 Pending — HARMLS
• 2020-11-29 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2020-11-14 Pending — HARMLS
• 2020-11-02 Pending — HARMLS
• 2020-10-04 Listed $139,900 HARMLS
• 2012-04-27 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2012-01-13 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2011-12-31 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2011-11-15 Listed $30,000 HARMLS
• 1999-11-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,167 · -2.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.