2213 Johnson Cir · Pocahontas, AR 72455

$105,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,616 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 301 Days on market

Built 1965 1.00 ac lot $65/sqft · 31% below area Est $153k · 31% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.5/10.0
• 1% rule +6.1/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

HURRY, HURRY, HURRY!! Wow! 1616 sf, 3 or 4 bedroom, 1 bath home in a circle drive! It has a living room, huge den, open kitchen/dining room and a chainlink fenced backyard. Call Joe 870-378-5111.

Key facts

• 1 acre lot
• Listed 300 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $105k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $195 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $105k).
• Recommended offer: $92k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.5% vs local median 4.6% in Pocahontas — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#37 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D, employment D, schools D-.
• Pocahontas School District (rural): math 29% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #165 of 238 in AR (top 69%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 77 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 6 units permitted in Randolph County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $726 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Randolph County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 301 days — a 12% lower offer ($92k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (25%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $85k; 24% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $92,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 301 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.52%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.95%
• DSCR: 1.35
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $152,836
• List price: $105,000
• Delta: -31.30%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2202 Dalton St	0.22mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,653 (+2%)	2mo	$172,000	$104	79
2312 Lee St	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,477 (-9%)	10mo	$157,000	$106	75
2308 Archer St	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,674 (+4%)	4mo	$174,000	$104	74
1110 N Pratt St	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,536 (-5%)	10mo	$150,000	$98	65
2515 Rebecca Dr	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,452 (-10%)	15mo	$219,900	$151	64
2106 Pyburn St	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,518 (-6%)	18mo	$110,000	$72	63
2100 Lee St	0.12mi	3/1.5	1,379 (-15%)	8mo	$72,600	$53	61
1909 Briarwood St	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,636 (+1%)	7mo	$195,000	$119	61
357 Humble Ln	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,660 (+3%)	13mo	$310,000	$187	60
1801 Randolph	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,538 (-5%)	8mo	$100,000	$65	54
1210 N Park St	0.34mi	3/1.5	1,848 (+14%)	14mo	$157,785	$85	47
1020 Schoonover	0.68mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,376 (-15%)	13mo	$40,000	$29	24

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.84×
• Total profit: $-4,597
• Equity at exit: $15,656

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.41×
• Total profit: $12,035
• Equity at exit: $9,078

Cash invested: $29,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72455

• Home prices YoY: -15.8%
• Active inventory: 77
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,165 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$551
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$131 /mo · $1,575/yr
• Insurance: −$44
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$245
• Net cashflow: $195

Break-even live

Break-even rent $919

Max offer price $105,000

Occupancy floor 78%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $26,250
• Closing costs: $3,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2506 Ridgeland Cir Apt 2 Pocahontas, AR	2.0	2.5	1438	$1,495	$1.04	44d	1	0.55mi
2503 Ridgeland Cir Pocahontas, AR	2.0	2.5	1486	$995	$0.67	44d	1	0.59mi
2503 Ridgeland Cir Unit 4 Pocahontas, AR	2.0	2.5	1486	$995	$0.67	44d	1	0.59mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $105,000 Active 301 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $105,000 Active 300 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $105,000 Active 299 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $105,000 Active 298 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $105,000 Active 297 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $105,000 Active 295 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $105,000 Active 294 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $105,000 Active 291 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $105,000 Active 290 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $105,000 Active 289 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $105,000 Active 288 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $105,000 Active 285 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $105,000 Active 284 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $105,000 Active 283 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $105,000 Active 282 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $105,000 Active 281 DOM
17. 2025-12-02
    price $105,000
18. 2025-10-21
    price $125,000
19. 2025-09-19
    price $130,000
20. 2025-08-23
    listed $140,000 Active
21. 2019-06-27
    soldstatus $85,000
22. 2019-06-26
    soldstatus $85,000 195-char remark

    Show marketing remark (195 chars)

    HURRY, HURRY, HURRY!! Wow! 1616 sf, 3 or 4 bedroom, 1 bath home in a circle drive! It has a living room, huge den, open kitchen/dining room and a chainlink fenced backyard. Call Joe 870-378-5111.

23. 2018-11-04
    listed $85,000 195-char remark

    Show marketing remark (195 chars)

    HURRY, HURRY, HURRY!! Wow! 1616 sf, 3 or 4 bedroom, 1 bath home in a circle drive! It has a living room, huge den, open kitchen/dining room and a chainlink fenced backyard. Call Joe 870-378-5111.

24. 2002-07-31
    soldstatus $50,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,980
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,882
• − Property taxes: −$1,575
• − Insurance: −$525
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,118
• − Management: −$1,118
• − Depreciation: −$3,055
• Taxable income: $707
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$170
• After-tax cash flow: $2,167/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pocahontas School District
• NCES district ID: 0511610
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 27% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $37,399
• Composite: 23.36/100
• National rank: #7907
• State rank: #165 of 238 in AR

Livability — Pocahontas

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #37
• US rank: #6525

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pocahontas, AR
• Population (ZIP): 13,572

Population outlook (Randolph County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 16,421 people
• By 2030: 15,733 · -4.2%
• By 2040: 14,296 · -12.9%
• By 2050: 12,884 · -21.5%
• By 2075: 9,535 · -41.9%
• By 2100: 6,520 · -60.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Two or more races 6% Pacific Islander 3% Hispanic / Latino 2% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Lithuanian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4%
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 3% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Randolph

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+63.7) · D 17.1% · R 80.9% · Other 2.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -45.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.1pp · 2024: -63.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+63.7 2020: R+60.8 2016: R+48.8 2012: R+27.9 2008: R+18.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -33.61%
• Current HPI: 179.3505
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

+110.0% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-02 Price Changed $105,000 NEABOR MLS
• 2025-10-21 Price Changed $125,000 NEABOR MLS
• 2025-09-19 Price Changed $130,000 NEABOR MLS
• 2025-08-23 Listed $140,000 NEABOR MLS
• 2019-06-27 Sold (Public Records) $85,000 Public Records
• 2019-06-26 Sold (MLS) $85,000 CARMLS
• 2018-11-04 Listed $85,000 CARMLS
• 2002-07-31 Sold (Public Records) $50,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-8.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $75 · -57.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.