4270 Orion Path · Liverpool, NY 13090

$274,900

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,600 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 6 Days on market

Built 1967 8,512 sqft lot Est $310k · 11% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.6/15.0
• Cash flow +11.7/30.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +4.3/5.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

VERY SPACIOUS HOME IN EXCELLENT CONDITION. OPEN ENTRY WAY. KITCHEN HAS NEWER FLOORING, COUNTER TOPS, LIGHTING, HARDWARE, SINK, DISHWASHER AND STOVE. FAMILY ROOM HAS FIREPLACE AND SLIDING GLASS DOORS OUT TO DECK. BAY WINDOW IN LIVING ROOM. VAULTED CEILING IN LIVING ROOM, DINING ROOM AND KITCHEN. UPDATED BATH. HARDWOODS IN LIVING ROOM, DINING ROOM AND BEDROOMS. ALL BEDROOMS ARE BIG. FRESHLY PAINTED INTERIOR. BEDROOMS HAVE 6 PANEL DOORS. FULLY FENCED YARD. ENCLOSED FRONT SCREENED IN PORCH. .. . TAXES ARE WITHOUT BASIC STAR WITH STAR THEY ARE 4166.00.. ..

Key facts

• New driveway
• Updated furnace
• Updated gutters

Tags

• NEW ROOF
• UPDATED GUTTERS
• NEW DRIVEWAY
• FULL EXTERIOR PAINT JOB
• UPDATED FURNACE
• AIR CONDITIONING SYSTEM

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2 garage spaces; Driveway; Garage door opener
• Utilities: Public water connected; Sewer connected; Cable available; High-speed internet available; Electric with circuit breakers
• Home design: Single-story home; Resale property; Shake siding
• Construction: Block foundation; Shake siding construction; Existing (previously built)
• Exterior features: Blacktop driveway; Deck; Screened porch; Porch; Fully fenced yard; Shed(s) / storage; Full fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range; Range hood; Refrigerator; Exhaust fan; Solid surface counters; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: Includes bedroom(s) (see room count for totals)
• Flooring: Hardwood; Tile; Vinyl; Varies
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom; 1 main level bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); Separate/formal dining room; Eat-in kitchen; Separate/formal living room; Sliding glass door(s); Solid surface counters; Programmable thermostat; Sliding doors
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry in basement; Tankless water heater; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $275k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-80 ($-955/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $261k (5.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $259k (5.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $259k (5.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 86/100 on livability (#16 in NY, #363 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+.
• Liverpool Central School District (suburban): math 49% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #381 of 590 in NY (top 65%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 96 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 616 units permitted in Onondaga County in 2024 (256 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($88k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Onondaga County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $125k; list at $275k implies a 120% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $259,146 (5.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1967 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.95%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.24%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $310,400
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4219 Orion Path	0.17mi	3/1.5	1,584 (-1%)	1mo	$300,000	$189	89
4245 Rancho Park Dr	0.37mi	3/1.5	1,536 (-4%)	2mo	$315,000	$205	75
4291 Luna	0.08mi	3/2.5	1,728 (+8%)	7mo	$335,000	$194	73
119 Sagamore Dr S	0.63mi	3/1.5	1,616 (+1%)	7mo	$298,625	$185	63
4166 Balboa Dr	0.48mi	3/1.5	1,520 (-5%)	7mo	$240,000	$158	63
4115 Poplar Dr	0.59mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,616 (+1%)	3mo	$325,500	$201	59
4189 Balboa Dr	0.45mi	3/1.5	1,450 (-9%)	7mo	$284,000	$196	58
4152 Lucan Rd	0.39mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,792 (+12%)	1mo	$335,000	$187	56
131 Sagamore Dr S	0.71mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,712 (+7%)	1mo	$365,000	$213	49
4250 Forestbrook Dr	0.73mi	3/1.5	1,804 (+13%)	1mo	$320,000	$177	44
4177 Torrey Ln	0.46mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,368 (-14%)	6mo	$240,000	$175	42
106 Pinewood Dr	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,365 (-15%)	2mo	$290,000	$212	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-49,437
• Equity at exit: $40,988

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-48,852
• Equity at exit: $23,768

Cash invested: $76,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13090

• Active inventory: 96
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,591 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax from tax record: −$571 /mo · $6,849/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$544
• Net cashflow: $-80

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,692

Max offer price $260,836

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $76	-5% $-2	+0% $-80	+5% $-157	+10% $-235
Rent	-10% $-284	-5% $-182	+0% $-80	+5% $23	+10% $125
Rate	-1.0pp $59	-0.5pp $-10	base $-80	+0.5pp $-151	+1.0pp $-223

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,725
• Closing costs: $8,247
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4071 Sesame Path Liverpool, NY	4.0	2.5	1928	$3,200	$1.66	21d	1	0.25mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-04-28
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-22
   listed $274,900 Active
3. 2010-09-21
   soldstatus $125,000 557-char remark

   Show marketing remark (557 chars)

   VERY SPACIOUS HOME IN EXCELLENT CONDITION. OPEN ENTRY WAY. KITCHEN HAS NEWER FLOORING, COUNTER TOPS, LIGHTING, HARDWARE, SINK, DISHWASHER AND STOVE. FAMILY ROOM HAS FIREPLACE AND SLIDING GLASS DOORS OUT TO DECK. BAY WINDOW IN LIVING ROOM. VAULTED CEILING IN LIVING ROOM, DINING ROOM AND KITCHEN. UPDATED BATH. HARDWOODS IN LIVING ROOM, DINING ROOM AND BEDROOMS. ALL BEDROOMS ARE BIG. FRESHLY PAINTED INTERIOR. BEDROOMS HAVE 6 PANEL DOORS. FULLY FENCED YARD. ENCLOSED FRONT SCREENED IN PORCH. .. . TAXES ARE WITHOUT BASIC STAR WITH STAR THEY ARE 4166.00.. ..

4. 2010-09-15
   soldstatus $125,000
5. 2010-06-03
   listed $129,900 557-char remark

   Show marketing remark (557 chars)

   VERY SPACIOUS HOME IN EXCELLENT CONDITION. OPEN ENTRY WAY. KITCHEN HAS NEWER FLOORING, COUNTER TOPS, LIGHTING, HARDWARE, SINK, DISHWASHER AND STOVE. FAMILY ROOM HAS FIREPLACE AND SLIDING GLASS DOORS OUT TO DECK. BAY WINDOW IN LIVING ROOM. VAULTED CEILING IN LIVING ROOM, DINING ROOM AND KITCHEN. UPDATED BATH. HARDWOODS IN LIVING ROOM, DINING ROOM AND BEDROOMS. ALL BEDROOMS ARE BIG. FRESHLY PAINTED INTERIOR. BEDROOMS HAVE 6 PANEL DOORS. FULLY FENCED YARD. ENCLOSED FRONT SCREENED IN PORCH. .. . TAXES ARE WITHOUT BASIC STAR WITH STAR THEY ARE 4166.00.. ..

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $6,849 · $571/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,849 · $571/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,098
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,399
• − Property taxes: −$6,849
• − Insurance: −$1,374
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,488
• − Management: −$2,488
• − Depreciation: −$7,997
• Taxable loss: −$5,497
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,319
• After-tax cash flow: $364/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Liverpool Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3617520
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $59,134
• Composite: 42.84/100
• National rank: #3134
• State rank: #381 of 590 in NY

Livability — Liverpool

• Score: 86/100
• State rank: #16
• US rank: #363

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime A Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Onondaga County · 247,257 people
• City population: 29,004
• Metro: Syracuse, NY
• Population (ZIP): 29,004
• Household income: $88,492
• Rent vs Own: 32.1% rent · 67.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 733.0

Population outlook (Onondaga County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 467,894 people
• By 2030: 463,381 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 447,697 · -4.3%
• By 2050: 426,399 · -8.9%
• By 2075: 373,661 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 307,967 · -34.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 7% Black 6% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Lithuanian 4% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Other Indo-European 2% Spanish 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Onondaga

• 2024 margin: D (+17.3) · D 58.6% · R 41.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.0pp toward R · 2008: 20.3pp · 2024: 17.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+17.3 2020: D+20.6 2016: D+12.8 2012: D+21.1 2008: D+20.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -228.53%
• Current HPI: 320.4989
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Syracuse, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+111.6% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Pending — CNYIS
• 2026-04-22 Listed $274,900 CNYIS
• 2010-09-21 Sold (MLS) $125,000 CNYIS
• 2010-09-15 Sold (Public Records) $125,000 Public Records
• 2010-06-03 Listed $129,900 CNYIS

Property tax history

+12.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,849 · +4.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.