1444 Cr 4810 · Timpson, TX 75975

$124,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,568 sqft · SingleFamily · 237 Days on market

Built 1985 Fair condition 0.90 ac lot ↓ 16% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +4.8/10.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This cute, farmhouse-style home on pier & beam foundation offers a spacious, open-concept design with a cozy fireplace & split bedroom plan. Step outside to enjoy the expansive wrap-around porch. Enjoy your morning coffee or evening gatherings on the back patio. Appreciate the convenience of an oversized 2 car-carport. All of this under the durability of a metal roof. This great property sits on almost an acre in Timpson ISD.

Key facts

• Wrap around porch
• Metal roof
• Farmhouse style

Tags

• FARMHOUSE STYLE
• OPEN CONCEPT DESIGN
• COZY FIREPLACE
• WRAP AROUND PORCH
• BACK PATIO
• METAL ROOF

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $125k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-32 ($-389/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $120k (3.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $105k (15.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $105k (15.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,064 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Timpson ISD (rural): math 28% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #614 of 826 in TX (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 67 active listings in the ZIP; 1 units permitted in Shelby County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $328 of equity ($864 loan paydown + $-536 appreciation (-0.4% local appreciation)).
• Shelby County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 237 days — a 12% lower offer ($110k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $105,156 (15.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 237 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.98%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.11%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.43% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.77×
• Total profit: $-8,199
• Equity at exit: $33,612

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.11×
• Total profit: $3,886
• Equity at exit: $38,340

Cash invested: $34,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75975

• Home prices YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 67
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,052 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$655
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$156 /mo · $1,874/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$221
• Net cashflow: $-32

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,093

Max offer price $120,208

Occupancy floor 98%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,225
• Closing costs: $3,747
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $124,900 Active 237 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $124,900 Active 236 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $124,900 Active 235 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $124,900 Active 234 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $124,900 Active 233 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $124,900 Active 232 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $124,900 Active 231 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $124,900 Active 228 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $124,900 Active 227 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $124,900 Active 226 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $124,900 Active 225 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $124,900 Active 222 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $124,900 Active 221 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $124,900 Active 220 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $124,900 Active 219 DOM
16. 2026-05-12
    price $124,900 441-char remark

    Show marketing remark (441 chars)

    This cute, farmhouse-style home on pier & beam foundation offers a spacious, open-concept design with a cozy fireplace & split bedroom plan. Step outside to enjoy the expansive wrap-around porch. Enjoy your morning coffee or evening gatherings on the back patio. Appreciate the convenience of an oversized 2 car-carport. All of this under the durability of a metal roof. This great property sits on almost an acre in Timpson ISD.

17. 2026-01-22
    price $144,500 441-char remark

    Show marketing remark (441 chars)

    This cute, farmhouse-style home on pier & beam foundation offers a spacious, open-concept design with a cozy fireplace & split bedroom plan. Step outside to enjoy the expansive wrap-around porch. Enjoy your morning coffee or evening gatherings on the back patio. Appreciate the convenience of an oversized 2 car-carport. All of this under the durability of a metal roof. This great property sits on almost an acre in Timpson ISD.

18. 2025-10-24
    listed $149,000 Active 441-char remark

    Show marketing remark (441 chars)

    This cute, farmhouse-style home on pier & beam foundation offers a spacious, open-concept design with a cozy fireplace & split bedroom plan. Step outside to enjoy the expansive wrap-around porch. Enjoy your morning coffee or evening gatherings on the back patio. Appreciate the convenience of an oversized 2 car-carport. All of this under the durability of a metal roof. This great property sits on almost an acre in Timpson ISD.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,619
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,996
• − Property taxes: −$1,874
• − Insurance: −$624
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,009
• − Management: −$1,009
• − Depreciation: −$3,633
• Taxable loss: −$2,528
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$607
• After-tax cash flow: $218/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This single-family home on pier and beam foundation requires moderate repairs and maintenance to improve its condition and increase its value.

Repairs flagged

• Major Overgrown vegetation — Needs trimming and clearing
• Major Worn-out carpet — Needs replacement
• Major Peeling paint — Needs repainting
• Major Old, single-pane windows — Needs replacement
• Major Older HVAC system — Needs replacement

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping and curb appeal — Improves both resale and rental value
• Both New flooring — Enhances both resale and rental value
• Both Painting and updating interior walls — Enhances both resale and rental value
• Both New windows — Enhances both resale and rental value
• Both New HVAC system — Enhances both resale and rental value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Overgrown vegetation · Needs trimming and clearing	Major	$15,000–50,000
Worn-out carpet · Needs replacement	Major	$15,000–50,000
Peeling paint · Needs repainting	Major	$15,000–50,000
Old, single-pane windows · Needs replacement	Major	$15,000–50,000
Older HVAC system · Needs replacement	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 5 items		$75,000–250,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping and curb appeal — Improves both resale and rental value ↑
• Both New flooring — Enhances both resale and rental value ↑
• Both Painting and updating interior walls — Enhances both resale and rental value ↑
• Both New windows — Enhances both resale and rental value ↑
• Both New HVAC system — Enhances both resale and rental value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Timpson ISD
• NCES district ID: 4842840
• Math proficiency: 28% ▼ -22.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $36,041
• Composite: 26.09/100
• National rank: #7293
• State rank: #614 of 826 in TX

Livability — Timpson

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #1064
• US rank: #18901

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Timpson, TX
• Population (ZIP): 3,873

Population outlook (Shelby County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 25,199 people
• By 2030: 24,986 · -0.8%
• By 2040: 24,646 · -2.2%
• By 2050: 24,144 · -4.2%
• By 2075: 22,328 · -11.4%
• By 2100: 18,734 · -25.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Two or more races 20% Black 16% Hispanic / Latino 10% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Shelby

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+64.6) · D 17.5% · R 82.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.3pp toward R · 2008: -44.3pp · 2024: -64.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+64.6 2020: R+58.6 2016: R+59.7 2012: R+49.1 2008: R+44.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.43%
• Current HPI: 160.5146
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-16.2% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $124,900 Deep East Texas MLS
• 2026-01-22 Price Changed $144,500 Deep East Texas MLS
• 2025-10-24 Listed $149,000 Deep East Texas MLS