420 E Denton St · Howe, TX 75459

$33,000

1 bd · None ba · 900 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 8 Days on market

Built 1962 0.32 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

New Listing in Howe! Needs TLC or would make a perfect spot for a new home. Take a look, make an offer. Hurry! Condition of any & all systems unknown at this time. Buyer to verify all information in this report & condition of subject & systems.

Key facts

• 0.32 acre lot
• Built 1962
• Listed 8 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Possession at closing/funding or negotiable; Listing agreement: Exclusive right to sell
• Financial info: Listing terms: Cash or Conventional; Treat as clear loan type; No second mortgage
• HOA & community: No homeowners association

Exterior

• Parking: No garage or covered parking; No carport
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; Electricity available; Overhead utilities; Not in a municipal utility district
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property; Detached (not attached to another unit)
• Construction: Built in 1962
• Exterior features: Lot under 0.5 acre (approximately 0.321 acres); Subdivision: 0925 Park Wa; Directions available: Hwy 75, exit 53 toward Haning St., Right onto W Young St., Right on Quinlan St., Left on Denton St.; 420 Denton is on the right

Interior

• Bedrooms: One bedroom on level 1
• Interior features: Built-in features; One level (single story)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/?-bath single-family listed at $33k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $586 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $33k).
• Cap rate 27.6% vs local median 4.5% in Howe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#368 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Howe ISD (rural): math 47% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #180 of 826 in TX (top 22%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Summit Hill El (358 students, 69% FRL) — zoned schools average 69% FRL vs 41% district-wide (28 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 142 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,272 units permitted in Grayson County in 2024 (750 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $228 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $990 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Grayson County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $9k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $16k; list at $33k implies a 100% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.8% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 26% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $33,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1962 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.47% ✓
• Cap rate: 27.61%
• Cash-on-cash: 76.14%
• DSCR: 4.39
• GRM: 2.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $116,100
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
512 Branch St	0.32mi	2/1.0 (+1)	891 (-1%)	3mo	$114,900	$129	76

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 76.2%
• Equity multiple: 4.47×
• Total profit: $32,068
• Equity at exit: $4,920

10-year hold

• IRR: 79.8%
• Equity multiple: 9.26×
• Total profit: $76,304
• Equity at exit: $2,853

Cash invested: $9,240 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75459

• Home prices YoY: -18.5%
• Active inventory: 142
• Price-to-rent: 2.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,145 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$173
• Tax from tax record: −$131 /mo · $1,577/yr
• Insurance: −$14
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$240
• Net cashflow: $586

Break-even live

Break-even rent $403

Max offer price $33,000

Occupancy floor 44%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $699	-5% $688	+0% $586	+5% $577	+10% $568
Rent	-10% $496	-5% $541	+0% $586	+5% $632	+10% $677
Rate	-1.0pp $603	-0.5pp $595	base $586	+0.5pp $578	+1.0pp $569

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $8,250
• Closing costs: $990
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
116 N Western Hills Dr Howe, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	852	$1,145	$1.34	0d	19	0.91mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $33,000 Pending 8 DOM
2. 2026-06-10
   days on market $33,000 Active 6 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   days on market $33,000 Active 5 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $33,000 Active 4 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   days on market $33,000 Active 3 DOM
6. 2026-06-05
   remarks 475-char remark
7. 2026-06-05
   listed $33,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,577 · $131/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,577 · $131/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥109°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 26% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,740
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,849
• − Property taxes: −$1,577
• − Insurance: −$165
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,099
• − Management: −$1,099
• − Depreciation: −$960
• Taxable income: $6,991
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,678
• After-tax cash flow: $5,358/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Howe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823670
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $60,164
• Composite: 42.92/100
• National rank: #3119
• State rank: #180 of 826 in TX

Livability — Howe

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #368
• US rank: #7804

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Howe, TX
• Population (ZIP): 6,620

Population outlook (Grayson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 134,540 people
• By 2030: 138,653 · +3.1%
• By 2040: 145,958 · +8.5%
• By 2050: 151,218 · +12.4%
• By 2075: 161,802 · +20.3%
• By 2100: 159,036 · +18.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 9% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Lithuanian 3% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 17%

Political lean MEDSL · Grayson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+54.3) · D 22.5% · R 76.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.4pp toward R · 2008: -37.9pp · 2024: -54.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+54.3 2020: R+49.9 2016: R+53.1 2012: R+48.0 2008: R+37.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -56.75%
• Current HPI: 249.7211
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+121.5% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Listed $33,000 NTREIS
• 2018-08-07 Sold (Public Records) $16,500 Public Records
• 2010-12-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2010-12-20 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2010-12-01 Pending — NTREIS
• 2010-09-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2010-08-06 Listed $14,900 NTREIS

Property tax history

+6.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,577 · -9.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.