516 Tascosa Ave · Channing, TX 79018

$150,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,464 sqft · SingleFamily · 21 Days on market

Built 1977

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +7.5/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Charming 3 bed, 2 bath home on a large lot with old-time charm and plenty of space! This property features a 2-car garage, TWO shops/workspaces, and a storm shelter. Inside, you'll love the spacious kitchen with a double oven and tons of cabinet space, perfect for cooking and entertaining. The primary bathroom includes his-and-her sinks, and the home offers comfortable living with character throughout. A rare find with room to work, store, and enjoy both inside and out

Key facts

• Spacious kitchen
• Large lot
• Storm shelter

Tags

• LARGE LOT
• 2 CAR GARAGE
• STORM SHELTER
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• DOUBLE OVEN
• TONS OF CABINET SPACE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with space for 2 vehicles
• Home design: Single-family residential property
• Exterior features: Zoning in the 5000 series (5000 - All areas in the 5000's); RV access/parking available

Interior

• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Directions provided from center of Channing: head east on Tascosa Ave for about 0.3 miles; 516 Tascosa will be on the left

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-97 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $136k (9.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $119k (20.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $119k (20.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#927 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, crime D-, amenities F.
• Channing ISD (rural): math 40% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #705 of 1,141 in TX (top 62%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 2 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $8k appreciation (5.0% local appreciation)).
• Hartley County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($148k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $118,948 (20.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.52%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.77%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.68×
• Total profit: $28,425
• Equity at exit: $85,011

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.17×
• Total profit: $91,328
• Equity at exit: $146,725

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79018

• Home prices YoY: 5.1%
• Active inventory: 2
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,189 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$188 /mo · $2,250/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$250
• Net cashflow: $-97

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,312

Max offer price $135,974

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $7	-5% $-45	+0% $-97	+5% $-149	+10% $-201
Rent	-10% $-191	-5% $-144	+0% $-97	+5% $-50	+10% $-3
Rate	-1.0pp $-21	-0.5pp $-59	base $-97	+0.5pp $-136	+1.0pp $-175

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-12
   statusdays on market $150,000 Pending 21 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $150,000 Active Under Contract 19 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $150,000 Active Under Contract 18 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $150,000 Active Under Contract 17 DOM
5. 2026-06-05
   days on market $150,000 Active Under Contract 15 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $150,000 Active Under Contract 13 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $150,000 Active Under Contract 12 DOM
8. 2026-06-02
   status $150,000 Active Under Contract 11 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   days on market $150,000 Active 11 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    days on market $150,000 Active 10 DOM
11. 2026-05-21
    listed $150,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,274
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$2,250
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,142
• − Management: −$1,142
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable loss: −$3,776
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$906
• After-tax cash flow: $-257/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Channing ISD
• NCES district ID: 4813620
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $48,716
• Composite: 36.8/100
• National rank: #9178
• State rank: #705 of 1141 in TX

Livability — Channing

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #927
• US rank: #16476

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Channing, TX
• Population (ZIP): 405

Population outlook (Hartley County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,822 people
• By 2030: 5,933 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 6,234 · +7.1%
• By 2050: 6,356 · +9.2%
• By 2075: 6,709 · +15.2%
• By 2100: 6,729 · +15.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 18% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 3% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Hartley

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+83.3) · D 8.1% · R 91.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.7pp toward R · 2008: -73.6pp · 2024: -83.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+83.3 2020: R+80.5 2016: R+80.0 2012: R+79.7 2008: R+73.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.00%
• Current HPI: 103.1946
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Listed $150,000 AARMLS