46 Mesa Ave · Camdenton, MO 65020

$199,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · Other public records · 108 Days on market

Built 1973 10,018 sqft lot $159/sqft · 11% below area $42/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

3 Bedroom, 2 bath home with unfinished basement for storage or finish for more living space! This home sits near the Lake of the Ozarks, with a view of the lake and a gentle rolling yard to enjoy the outdoors! This property may qualify for seller financing(Vendee) Prior to seller receipt & approval full title package foreclosure title may be conveyed by quit claim/non warranty deed. Water won't be turned on for inspections didn't hold pressure.

Key facts

• Unfinished basement
• Gentle rolling yard
• View of the lake

Tags

• UNFINISHED BASEMENT
• VIEW OF THE LAKE
• GENTLE ROLLING YARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $206 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $180k (9.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $180k (9.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 1.7% in Camdenton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#186 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, schools D-, amenities F.
• Camdenton R-III (rural): math 46% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #68 of 324 in MO (top 21%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 416 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 272 units permitted in Camden County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Camden County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 108 days — a 9% lower offer ($181k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 10 sale attempts since 13y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $45k (18%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $180,413 (9.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 108 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.54%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.44%
• DSCR: 1.20
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $403,513
• List price: $199,000
• Delta: -50.68%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.66×
• Total profit: $-19,173
• Equity at exit: $29,672

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.00×
• Total profit: $-53
• Equity at exit: $17,206

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65020

• Home prices YoY: -32.9%
• Active inventory: 416
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,804 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax from tax record: −$50 /mo · $605/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$42
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$379
• Net cashflow: $206

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,543

Max offer price $199,000

Occupancy floor 84%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $319	-5% $263	+0% $206	+5% $150	+10% $94
Rent	-10% $64	-5% $135	+0% $206	+5% $278	+10% $349
Rate	-1.0pp $307	-0.5pp $257	base $206	+0.5pp $155	+1.0pp $102

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
207 Weiskopf Way Camdenton, MO	2.0	2.0	1450	$2,400	$1.66	16d	1	1.40mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $42 · $504/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 46 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $199,000 Active 108 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $199,000 Active 106 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,000 Active 105 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,000 Active 104 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,000 Active 103 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   pricedays on market $199,000 Active 102 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $212,000 Active 100 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $212,000 Active 99 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $212,000 Active 96 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $212,000 Active 95 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $212,000 Active 94 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $212,000 Active 91 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $212,000 Active 90 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $212,000 Active 89 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $212,000 Active 88 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $212,000 Active 87 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $212,000 Active 86 DOM
18. 2026-05-12
    status Active 455-char remark

    Show marketing remark (264 chars)

    3 Bedroom, 2 bath home with unfinished basement for storage or finish for more living space! This home sits near the Lake of the Ozarks, with a view of the lake and a gentle rolling yard to enjoy the outdoors! This property may qualify for seller financing(Vendee)

19. 2026-05-12
    price $212,000 455-char remark

    Show marketing remark (264 chars)

    3 Bedroom, 2 bath home with unfinished basement for storage or finish for more living space! This home sits near the Lake of the Ozarks, with a view of the lake and a gentle rolling yard to enjoy the outdoors! This property may qualify for seller financing(Vendee)

20. 2026-05-12
    status Active 264-char remark

    Show marketing remark (264 chars)

    3 Bedroom, 2 bath home with unfinished basement for storage or finish for more living space! This home sits near the Lake of the Ozarks, with a view of the lake and a gentle rolling yard to enjoy the outdoors! This property may qualify for seller financing(Vendee)

21. 2026-05-12
    price $212,000 264-char remark

    Show marketing remark (264 chars)

    3 Bedroom, 2 bath home with unfinished basement for storage or finish for more living space! This home sits near the Lake of the Ozarks, with a view of the lake and a gentle rolling yard to enjoy the outdoors! This property may qualify for seller financing(Vendee)

22. 2026-04-30
    historical 455-char remark

    Show marketing remark (455 chars)

    3 Bedroom, 2 bath home with unfinished basement for storage or finish for more living space! This home sits near the Lake of the Ozarks, with a view of the lake and a gentle rolling yard to enjoy the outdoors! This property may qualify for seller financing(Vendee) Prior to seller receipt & approval full title package foreclosure title may be conveyed by quit claim/non warranty deed. Water won't be turned on for inspections didn't hold pressure.

23. 2026-03-23
    price $232,000 455-char remark

    Show marketing remark (264 chars)

    3 Bedroom, 2 bath home with unfinished basement for storage or finish for more living space! This home sits near the Lake of the Ozarks, with a view of the lake and a gentle rolling yard to enjoy the outdoors! This property may qualify for seller financing(Vendee)

24. 2026-03-23
    price $232,000 264-char remark

    Show marketing remark (264 chars)

    3 Bedroom, 2 bath home with unfinished basement for storage or finish for more living space! This home sits near the Lake of the Ozarks, with a view of the lake and a gentle rolling yard to enjoy the outdoors! This property may qualify for seller financing(Vendee)

25. 2026-02-20
    listed $243,950 Active 264-char remark

    Show marketing remark (264 chars)

    3 Bedroom, 2 bath home with unfinished basement for storage or finish for more living space! This home sits near the Lake of the Ozarks, with a view of the lake and a gentle rolling yard to enjoy the outdoors! This property may qualify for seller financing(Vendee)

26. 2026-02-19
    listed $243,950 Active 455-char remark

    Show marketing remark (455 chars)

    3 Bedroom, 2 bath home with unfinished basement for storage or finish for more living space! This home sits near the Lake of the Ozarks, with a view of the lake and a gentle rolling yard to enjoy the outdoors! This property may qualify for seller financing(Vendee) Prior to seller receipt & approval full title package foreclosure title may be conveyed by quit claim/non warranty deed. Water won't be turned on for inspections didn't hold pressure.

27. 2024-09-30
    price $299,900
28. 2024-07-20
    price $310,000
29. 2022-12-07
    soldstatus
30. 2022-11-14
    soldstatus Closed
31. 2022-10-05
    historical Active Under Contract
32. 2022-09-22
    price $250,000
33. 2022-09-14
    price $299,000
34. 2022-09-03
    price $319,000
35. 2022-09-03
    listed $319,900 Active
36. 2022-09-02
    historical
37. 2022-08-31
    price $319,000
38. 2022-08-18
    status Active
39. 2022-08-05
    status Pending
40. 2022-07-15
    historical Active Under Contract
41. 2022-06-24
    listed $329,000 Active
42. 2015-07-30
    soldstatus
43. 2014-08-20
    listed $89,900
44. 2014-02-10
    listed $99,950
45. 2013-08-10
    listed $109,950
46. 1987-10-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $605 · $50/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,930 · $161/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,325/yr (+$110/mo · 219.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,650
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$605
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,732
• − Management: −$1,732
• − HOA: −$504
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable loss: −$855
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$205
• After-tax cash flow: $2,681/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Camdenton R-III
• NCES district ID: 2906990
• Math proficiency: 46% ▲ 10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $46,496
• Composite: 39.96/100
• National rank: #3838
• State rank: #68 of 324 in MO

Livability — Camdenton

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #186
• US rank: #9869

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Camden County · 21,945 people
• City population: 14,748
• Metro: nan
• Population (ZIP): 14,748
• Household income: $62,392
• Rent vs Own: 19.9% rent · 80.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 166.0

Population outlook (Camden County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 44,585 people
• By 2030: 44,476 · -0.2%
• By 2040: 43,513 · -2.4%
• By 2050: 41,705 · -6.5%
• By 2075: 36,903 · -17.2%
• By 2100: 30,164 · -32.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 2% German/W. Germanic 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Camden

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+54.3) · D 22.4% · R 76.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -25.8pp toward R · 2008: -28.5pp · 2024: -54.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+54.3 2020: R+53.2 2016: R+54.2 2012: R+39.3 2008: R+28.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -90.71%
• Current HPI: 185.4254
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: nan
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+92.8% since first listed

29 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Relisted — LOBR
• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $212,000 LOBR
• 2026-05-12 Relisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $212,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-30 Delisted — LOBR
• 2026-03-23 Price Changed $232,000 LOBR
• 2026-03-23 Price Changed $232,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-20 Listed $243,950 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-19 Listed $243,950 LOBR
• 2024-09-30 Price Changed $299,900 LOBR
• 2024-07-20 Price Changed $310,000 LOBR
• 2022-12-07 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-11-14 Sold (MLS) — LOBR
• 2022-10-05 Contingent — LOBR
• 2022-09-22 Price Changed $250,000 LOBR
• 2022-09-14 Price Changed $299,000 LOBR
• 2022-09-03 Price Changed $319,000 LOBR
• 2022-09-03 Listed $319,900 LOBR
• 2022-09-02 Delisted — LOBR
• 2022-08-31 Price Changed $319,000 LOBR
• 2022-08-18 Relisted — LOBR
• 2022-08-05 Pending — LOBR
• 2022-07-15 Contingent — LOBR
• 2022-06-24 Listed $329,000 LOBR
• 2015-07-30 Sold (MLS) — LOBR
• 2014-08-20 Listed $89,900 LOBR
• 2014-02-10 Listed $99,950 LOBR
• 2013-08-10 Listed $109,950 LOBR
• 1987-10-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+0.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $605 · +3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.