431 Valerie Way #103 · Golden Gate, FL 34104

$279,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,115 sqft · Condo public records · 70 Days on market

Built 2004 $517/mo HOA · 19% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this charming, two bedroom, two bathroom condo perfectly situated at the end of a private cul-de-sac to offer serene and panoramic Lake views from your private lanai. As you step inside, you’ll be greeted by an abundance of natural light highlighting the spacious open concept living area design for both comfort and style. The kitchen features, sleek countertops, ample cabinetry, and plenty of space for preparing meals or entertaining guests. The living and dining areas, flow, seamlessly, creating and inviting space to relax while enjoying the peaceful beauty of the lake. Both bedrooms are generously sized with large windows that frame stunning water views. The master suite

Key facts

• Ample cabinetry
• Panoramic lake views
• In unit laundry

Tags

• PRIVATE CUL-DE-SAC
• PANORAMIC LAKE VIEWS
• OPEN CONCEPT LIVING AREA
• AMPLE CABINETRY
• IN UNIT LAUNDRY
• ASSIGNED PARKING SPACE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Unit in a complex of 56 units; 12 units in the building; single floor unit
• Financial info: Condo fee shown as $1,550 (quarterly); Total annual recurring fees and one-time fees reported
• HOA & community: Quarterly condo fee (listed); Professional management; Community amenities: bike and jog path, community pool, community room, exercise room, pickleball, tennis court; Community type: Non-gated; Maintenance covered: cable, insurance, internet/Wi-Fi, irrigation water, lawn/land maintenance, legal/accounting, exterior pest control, sewer, trash removal, water; Total annual recurring fees listed; One-time fees listed

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 1-car garage
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Central water; Central sewer; Cable available
• Home design: Residential property; Low-rise (1-3 stories); Built in 2004; Zero lot line; Rear exposure facing east; Condominium in Sherwood
• Construction: Concrete block construction; Stucco exterior; Tile roof; Double-hung windows; Built on slab foundation
• Exterior features: Pond and lake views; Water display; Automatic sprinkler system (reclaimed irrigation); Shutters (manual)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Self-cleaning oven; Refrigerator/Freezer
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Master bath with dual sinks and shower (no tub)
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heat; Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Cable prewire; Smoke detectors; Walk-in closet; Breakfast bar; Screened lanai/porch; Laundry in residence; Split bedroom floor plan; Furnished
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer in unit; Auto garage door

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $280k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-112 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $260k (7.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $279k (0.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $260k (7.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#455 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living B; Watch: schools C-, employment D+, amenities F.
• Collier (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #16 of 73 in FL (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.1%/yr); 436 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,520 units permitted in Collier County in 2024 (959 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,792/mo this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($72k/yr) (locally 1423% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collier County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 70 days — a 6% lower offer ($263k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 9 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $260,196 (7.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 70 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 7% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.81%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.71%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.23×
• Total profit: $-60,366
• Equity at exit: $41,734

10-year hold

• IRR: -31.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.18×
• Total profit: $-92,210
• Equity at exit: $24,201

Cash invested: $78,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34104

• Rents YoY: -1.1%
• Active inventory: 436
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,792 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax from tax record: −$216 /mo · $2,592/yr
• Insurance: −$117
• HOA: −$517
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$586
• Net cashflow: $-112

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,934

Max offer price $260,196

Occupancy floor 99%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,975
• Closing costs: $8,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
280 Robin Hood Cir #101 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1413	$3,900	$2.76	23d	1	0.20mi
280 Robin Hood Cir #102 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1450	$3,995	$2.76	23d	1	0.20mi
321 Robin Hood Cir #201 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1225	$3,500	$2.86	23d	1	0.22mi
241 Robin Hood Cir #204 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1225	$3,800	$3.10	14d	1	0.26mi
7831 Regal Heron Cir Unit 1506858P Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1420	$4,283	$3.02	14d	1	0.28mi
209 Robin Hood Cir #201 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1225	$3,500	$2.86	14d	1	0.30mi
7835 Regal Heron Cir Naples, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1316	$1,795	$1.36	23d	2	0.30mi
7823 Regal Heron Cir #103 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1304	$1,995	$1.53	14d	1	0.31mi
7839 Regal Heron Cir #202 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1202	$2,000	$1.66	23d	1	0.33mi
7822 Great Heron Way #106 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1431	$2,200	$1.54	23d	1	0.36mi
7822 Great Heron Way #106 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1431	$2,200	$1.54	14d	1	0.36mi
7818 Great Heron Way #303 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1304	$3,395	$2.60	14d	1	0.38mi
675 Luisa Ln Unit 825 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1484	$2,300	$1.55	14d	1	0.44mi
7804 Regal Heron Cir #304 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1304	$2,000	$1.53	14d	1	0.45mi
620 Luisa Ct Unit 803 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1200	$2,400	$2.00	14d	1	0.47mi
8215 Ibis Club Dr #102 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1043	$1,625	$1.56	23d	1	0.49mi
448 Gabriel Cir Unit 3310 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1200	$3,500	$2.92	14d	1	0.52mi
8225 Ibis Club Dr #216 Naples, FL	1.0	1.0	811	$1,650	$2.03	23d	1	0.52mi
8225 Ibis Club Dr #216 Naples, FL	1.0	1.0	828	$1,600	$1.93	21d	1	0.52mi
218 Gabriel Cir Unit 3809 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1200	$3,800	$3.17	14d	1	0.53mi
515 Gabriel Cir Unit 1910 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1200	$4,700	$3.92	14d	1	0.58mi
120 Asaf Dr Unit 4304 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1350	$4,300	$3.19	14d	1	0.59mi
8245 Ibis Club Dr #403 Naples, FL	1.0	1.0	811	$1,600	$1.97	14d	1	0.59mi
3250 Magnolia Pond Dr Naples, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1039	$2,349	$2.26	14d	20	0.60mi
8265 Ibis Club Dr #610 Naples, FL	1.0	1.0	811	$1,600	$1.97	23d	1	0.62mi
153 Gabriel Cir Unit 3003 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1200	$4,000	$3.33	14d	1	0.62mi
8255 Ibis Club Dr Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1021	$1,750	$1.71	14d	2	0.64mi
388 Belina Dr Unit 1104 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1200	$4,000	$3.33	14d	1	0.64mi
484 Belina Dr Naples, FL	2.0	1.0	1200	$2,400	$2.00	23d	1	0.65mi
228 Belina Dr Unit 606 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1200	$4,800	$4.00	14d	1	0.66mi
8285 Ibis Club Dr #805 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1175	$2,450	$2.09	23d	1	0.66mi
120 Bedzel Cir Naples, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1079	$2,518	$2.33	14d	38	0.77mi
7790 Woodbrook Cir #2603 Naples, FL	3.0	2.5	1406	$4,500	$3.20	23d	1	0.80mi
3047 Tropicana Blvd Unit 3 Naples, FL	2.0	1.0	876	$1,795	$2.05	14d	1	0.83mi
3536 Winifred Row Ln Naples, FL	3.0	2.5	1300	$2,350	$1.81	14d	10	0.86mi
7725 Tara Cir Naples, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	929	$1,512	$1.63	14d	1	1.07mi
1600 Wellesley Cir Naples, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	950	$1,900	$2.00	14d	12	1.07mi
108 Santa Clara Dr #4 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	974	$1,950	$2.00	14d	1	1.15mi
116 Santa Clara Dr #12 Naples, FL	1.0	1.0	745	$1,600	$2.15	14d	1	1.19mi
1392 Churchill Cir Unit O101 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1350	$2,300	$1.70	14d	1	1.20mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $517 · $6,204/yr
• Likely covers: water
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 44 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $279,900 Active 70 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $279,900 Active 69 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $279,900 Active 68 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $279,900 Active 67 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $279,900 Active 65 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $279,900 Active 62 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $279,900 Active 61 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $279,900 Active 60 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $279,900 Active 59 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $279,900 Active 55 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $279,900 Active 54 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $279,900 Active 53 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $279,900 Active 52 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $279,900 Active 51 DOM
15. 2026-04-09
    listed $279,900 Active
16. 2025-04-30
    historical
17. 2025-02-26
    price $299,900
18. 2025-01-17
    listed $308,900 Active
19. 2024-06-19
    historical
20. 2024-06-11
    historical $2,000
21. 2024-06-05
    listed $2,000
22. 2024-06-04
    price $319,500
23. 2024-05-08
    price $326,900
24. 2024-04-22
    listed $337,900 Active
25. 2024-04-11
    historical
26. 2024-03-25
    price $339,000
27. 2024-03-13
    price $349,000
28. 2024-02-26
    listed $359,000 Active
29. 2023-04-25
    soldstatus $334,000
30. 2023-04-21
    soldstatus $334,000 Sold
31. 2023-03-28
    status Pending With Contingencies
32. 2023-03-22
    status Active
33. 2023-03-17
    status Pending With Contingencies
34. 2023-03-14
    listed $339,000 Active
35. 2017-01-30
    soldstatus $175,000
36. 2017-01-26
    price $175,000
37. 2017-01-24
    soldstatus $175,000 Sold
38. 2017-01-24
    price $179,900
39. 2016-12-20
    status Pending With Contingencies
40. 2016-11-30
    price $179,900
41. 2016-05-16
    listed $184,900 Active
42. 2004-10-01
    soldstatus $188,500
43. 2004-09-27
    soldstatus $188,500
44. 2004-08-11
    listed $189,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,592 · $216/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,592 · $216/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 29 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,508
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,679
• − Property taxes: −$2,592
• − Insurance: −$1,400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,681
• − Management: −$2,681
• − HOA: −$6,204
• − Depreciation: −$8,143
• Taxable loss: −$5,870
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,409
• After-tax cash flow: $70/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Collier
• NCES district ID: 1200330
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $58,275
• Composite: 50.23/100
• National rank: #1892
• State rank: #16 of 73 in FL

Livability — Golden Gate

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #455
• US rank: #8290

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime B- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Collier County · 396,295 people
• City population: 34,872
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• Population (ZIP): 26,408
• Household income: $71,686
• Rent vs Own: 31.7% rent · 68.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1423.0

Population outlook (Collier County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,858 people
• By 2030: 450,054 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 502,232 · +19.3%
• By 2050: 544,932 · +29.5%
• By 2075: 627,203 · +49.0%
• By 2100: 659,015 · +56.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 30% Two or more races 19% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 6% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Romanian 3% Hispanic 2%
• Foreign-born: 30% · Canada, Jamaica, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 66% English-only · Spanish 24% French/Haitian/Cajun 5% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Collier

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.1) · D 33.1% · R 66.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -22.5pp · 2024: -33.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.1 2020: R+24.7 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+30.1 2008: R+22.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -252.48%
• Current HPI: 259.3498
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.10%
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+47.4% since first listed

30 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-09 Listed $279,900 NAPLESMLS
• 2025-04-30 Listing Removed — NAPLESMLS
• 2025-02-26 Price Changed $299,900 NAPLESMLS
• 2025-01-17 Listed $308,900 NAPLESMLS
• 2024-06-19 Listing Removed — NAPLESMLS
• 2024-06-11 Rental Removed $2,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2024-06-05 Listed for Rent $2,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2024-06-04 Price Changed $319,500 NAPLESMLS
• 2024-05-08 Price Changed $326,900 NAPLESMLS
• 2024-04-22 Listed $337,900 NAPLESMLS
• 2024-04-11 Listing Removed — NAPLESMLS
• 2024-03-25 Price Changed $339,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2024-03-13 Price Changed $349,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2024-02-26 Listed $359,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2023-04-25 Sold (Public Records) $334,000 Public Records
• 2023-04-21 Sold (MLS) $334,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2023-03-28 Pending — NAPLESMLS
• 2023-03-22 Relisted — NAPLESMLS
• 2023-03-17 Pending — NAPLESMLS
• 2023-03-14 Listed $339,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2017-01-30 Sold (Public Records) $175,000 Public Records
• 2017-01-26 Price Changed $175,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2017-01-24 Price Changed $179,900 NAPLESMLS
• 2017-01-24 Sold (MLS) $175,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2016-12-20 Pending — NAPLESMLS
• 2016-11-30 Price Changed $179,900 NAPLESMLS
• 2016-05-16 Listed $184,900 NAPLESMLS
• 2004-10-01 Sold (Public Records) $188,500 Public Records
• 2004-09-27 Sold (MLS) $188,500 MIML
• 2004-08-11 Listed $189,900 MIML

Property tax history

+15.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,592 · +4.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.