7405 Bonnie Lake Rd · South Brooksville, FL 34601

$175,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 784 sqft · Manufactured public records · 6 Days on market

Built 1997 2.20 ac lot Est $150k · 17% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.2/30.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under contract-accepting backup offers. Great opportunity with strong potential. Ideal for investors or buyers searching for a property with a lot size over 2 acres that they can make their own. The home offers an open, split-bedroom floor plan with vaulted ceilings including three bedrooms, two bathrooms. The property provides ample room for outdoor living, expansion, gardening, or future improvements. The layout offers privacy between the primary suite and secondary bedrooms, while the open living areas create a functional flow for everyday living and entertaining. With some updates, this home presents an excellent opportunity to add value and customize to your vision. Conveniently locate

Key facts

• Open living areas
• Vaulted ceilings
• 2.2 acre lot

Tags

• LOT SIZE OVER 2 ACRES
• OPEN SPLIT-BEDROOM FLOOR PLAN
• VAULTED CEILINGS
• AMPLE ROOM FOR OUTDOOR LIVING
• OPEN LIVING AREAS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-35 ($-415/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $169k (3.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $145k (17.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $145k (17.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 2.9% in South Brooksville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#584 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Hernando (suburban): math 50% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #38 of 73 in FL (top 52%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 498 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,505 units permitted in Hernando County in 2024 (318 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hernando County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $144,713 (17.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.06%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.85%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $149,744
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7405 Bonnie Lake Rd	0.00mi	3/2.0	784 (0%)	1mo	$150,000	$191	99

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.19% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-34,537
• Equity at exit: $26,093

10-year hold

• IRR: -22.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.01×
• Total profit: $-48,337
• Equity at exit: $15,131

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34601

• Home prices YoY: -29.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.2%
• Active inventory: 498
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,447 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax from tax record: −$187 /mo · $2,246/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$304
• Net cashflow: $-35

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,491

Max offer price $168,893

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $64	-5% $15	+0% $-35	+5% $-84	+10% $-134
Rent	-10% $-149	-5% $-92	+0% $-35	+5% $23	+10% $80
Rate	-1.0pp $54	-0.5pp $10	base $-35	+0.5pp $-80	+1.0pp $-126

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7781 Crystal Brook Cir Brooksville, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1045	$1,697	$1.62	4d	8	0.61mi
965 Candlelight Blvd Brooksville, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	720	$1,330	$1.85	0d	10	0.81mi
20180 Barnett Rd Brooksville, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	783	$999	$1.28	11d	1	1.17mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-01-28
   status Pending
2. 2026-01-22
   listed $175,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,246 · $187/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,246 · $187/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,366
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$2,246
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,389
• − Management: −$1,389
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable loss: −$3,428
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$823
• After-tax cash flow: $408/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hernando
• NCES district ID: 1200810
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $41,985
• Composite: 42.03/100
• National rank: #3329
• State rank: #38 of 73 in FL

Livability — South Brooksville

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #584
• US rank: #11158

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment C Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: South Brooksville, FL
• County: Hernando County · 169,677 people
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 24,115
• Household income: $60,440
• Rent vs Own: 27.6% rent · 72.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 664.0

Population outlook (Hernando County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 189,218 people
• By 2030: 194,367 · +2.7%
• By 2040: 203,398 · +7.5%
• By 2050: 209,589 · +10.8%
• By 2075: 218,452 · +15.4%
• By 2100: 205,923 · +8.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Hispanic / Latino 11% Black 8% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 2% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Romanian 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Hernando

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.0) · D 31.1% · R 68.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -33.5pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -37.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.0 2020: R+30.2 2016: R+29.0 2012: R+8.5 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -132.68%
• Current HPI: 313.4695
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.19%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-28 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-22 Listed $175,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+8.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,246 · +13.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.