3709 Hawthorne Dr #13 · Bethel Island, CA 94511

$249,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,500 sqft · Manufactured · 31 Days on market

Built 1990 Est $178k · 40% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

Very cute 3 bedroom 2 bath, new carpet, new paint. Located in quiet community on Bethel Island. Perfect starter home with great floor plan.

Key facts

• Updated baths
• Dual-pane windows
• Walk-in shower

Tags

• NEW ROOF
• DUAL-PANE WINDOWS
• UPDATED BATHS
• WALK-IN SHOWER
• ARTIFICIAL TURF
• TWO SHEDS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in Bethel Island, CA (3709 Hawthorne Dr #13); Directions: Take Willow and turn left into park, then left on Hawthorne at end of street
• Financial info: No land lease
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: Attached parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; 220V in kitchen; 220V in laundry
• Home design: Manufactured home in park; Double wide; Built in 1990
• Construction: Vinyl skirting; Fleetwood manufactured home
• Exterior features: Shingle roof; Automatic sprinklers (front and rear); Garden

Interior

• Kitchen: Stone counters
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Tub with shower over; Shower stall(s)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Enclosed patio; Great room; Formal dining area; Stone kitchen countertops
• Laundry & utility: Laundry inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($18k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $250k).
• Recommended offer: $242k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.5% vs local median 2.9% in Bethel Island — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 49/100 on livability (#1,166 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A-; Watch: employment C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Oakley Union Elementary (suburban): math 26% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #837 of 1,400 in CA (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 78 active listings in the ZIP; 2,169 units permitted in Contra Costa County in 2024 (896 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $27k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $25k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Contra Costa County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $70k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$43k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($242k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 11y ago; this cycle's ask is 335% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $58k; list at $250k implies a 335% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $242,499 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.84% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 32.73%
• DSCR: 2.46
• GRM: 4.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $178,500
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
336 Alcott Ct #170	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-10%)	1mo	$129,000	$96	75
3705 Hawthorne Dr #12	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,648 (+10%)	12mo	$215,000	$130	72
3513 Alcott Cir #134	0.15mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,559 (+4%)	15mo	$195,000	$125	69
3702 Hawthorne	0.15mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,640 (+9%)	5mo	$40,000	$24	68
3760 Porter Cir	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-10%)	15mo	$159,900	$119	64
3757 Porter Cir #69	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-10%)	22mo	$80,000	$60	61
3621 Hawthorne Dr #110	0.26mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (-4%)	19mo	$130,000	$90	60
3764 Porter Cir #22	0.45mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,564 (+4%)	9mo	$198,800	$127	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 43.5%
• Equity multiple: 4.30×
• Total profit: $230,909
• Equity at exit: $225,219

10-year hold

• IRR: 37.6%
• Equity multiple: 9.66×
• Total profit: $606,395
• Equity at exit: $485,693

Cash invested: $70,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94511

• Home prices YoY: 4.6%
• Active inventory: 78
• Price-to-rent: 4.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,603 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$312 /mo · $3,750/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$967
• Net cashflow: $1,482

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,727

Max offer price $249,999

Occupancy floor 63%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,500
• Closing costs: $7,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $249,999 Active 31 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $249,999 Active 30 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $249,999 Active 29 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $249,999 Active 28 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $249,999 Active 26 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $249,999 Active 25 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $249,999 Active 22 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $249,999 Active 21 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $249,999 Active 20 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $249,999 Active 17 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $249,999 Active 16 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $249,999 Active 15 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $249,999 Active 14 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $249,999 Active 13 DOM
15. 2015-07-08
    historical 139-char remark

    Show marketing remark (139 chars)

    Very cute 3 bedroom 2 bath, new carpet, new paint. Located in quiet community on Bethel Island. Perfect starter home with great floor plan.

16. 2015-07-08
    soldstatus $57,500 Sold 139-char remark

    Show marketing remark (139 chars)

    Very cute 3 bedroom 2 bath, new carpet, new paint. Located in quiet community on Bethel Island. Perfect starter home with great floor plan.

17. 2015-06-18
    status Pending 139-char remark

    Show marketing remark (139 chars)

    Very cute 3 bedroom 2 bath, new carpet, new paint. Located in quiet community on Bethel Island. Perfect starter home with great floor plan.

18. 2015-04-29
    status Back On Market 139-char remark

    Show marketing remark (139 chars)

    Very cute 3 bedroom 2 bath, new carpet, new paint. Located in quiet community on Bethel Island. Perfect starter home with great floor plan.

19. 2015-04-07
    status Pending 139-char remark

    Show marketing remark (139 chars)

    Very cute 3 bedroom 2 bath, new carpet, new paint. Located in quiet community on Bethel Island. Perfect starter home with great floor plan.

20. 2015-04-03
    listed $57,500 New 139-char remark

    Show marketing remark (139 chars)

    Very cute 3 bedroom 2 bath, new carpet, new paint. Located in quiet community on Bethel Island. Perfect starter home with great floor plan.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone AE · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 21 unhealthy d/yr today · 23 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $55,241
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,004
• − Property taxes: −$3,750
• − Insurance: −$6,368
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,419
• − Management: −$4,419
• − Depreciation: −$7,273
• Taxable income: $15,008
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,602
• After-tax cash flow: $14,188/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Oakley Union Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0628080
• Math proficiency: 26% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $77,903
• Composite: 34.04/100
• National rank: #10301
• State rank: #837 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Bethel Island

• Score: 49/100
• State rank: #1166
• US rank: #25883

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A- Employment C- Housing C Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bethel Island, CA
• City population: 2,144
• Population (ZIP): 2,144

Population outlook (Contra Costa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,287,720 people
• By 2030: 1,364,937 · +6.0%
• By 2040: 1,506,209 · +17.0%
• By 2050: 1,624,373 · +26.1%
• By 2075: 1,853,193 · +43.9%
• By 2100: 1,901,231 · +47.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Hispanic / Latino 25% Asian 6% Two or more races 3% Pacific Islander 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Serbian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 27% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 20% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Contra Costa

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+38.0) · D 67.3% · R 29.4% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.2pp no change · 2008: 37.8pp · 2024: 38.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+38.0 2020: D+45.3 2016: D+43.5 2012: D+33.7 2008: D+37.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 13.77%
• Current HPI: 312.0698
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2015-07-08 Listing Removed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2015-07-08 Sold (MLS) $57,500 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2015-06-18 Pending — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2015-04-29 Relisted — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2015-04-07 Pending — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2015-04-03 Listed $57,500 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR

Property tax history

+3.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $313 · +3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.