16620 Port Arthur Pl · New Fairview, TX 76247

$313,990

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,129 sqft · SingleFamily · 4 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 9,300 sqft lot Est $358k · 12% under $42/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.0/15.0
• Cash flow +11.3/30.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

D. R. Horton America's Builder since 2002 is excited to serve as your new home builder in Lonestar at Liberty Trails, a fabulous unique master planned community in Justin and Northwest ISD! The two-story Dawson Floorplan, Elevation A, with an estimated Summer completion, offers 5 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms, an upstairs game room, and a 2-car garage, providing a thoughtfully designed layout ideal for modern living. The open-concept first floor features a welcoming family room that flows seamlessly into the dining area and contemporary kitchen, creating a functional space for everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen is equipped with quartz countertops, 36” upper cabinets with hardware,

Key facts

• Contemporary kitchen
• En-suite bath
• Oversized shower

Tags

• UPSTAIRS GAME ROOM
• CONTEMPORARY KITCHEN
• WALK-IN PANTRY
• PRIVATE PRIMARY SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATH
• OVERSIZED SHOWER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $314k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-114 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $297k (5.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $266k (15.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $266k (15.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 2.5% in New Fairview — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#901 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Northwest ISD (rural): math 48% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #120 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.5%/yr); 1503 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 41% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 10,531 units permitted in Denton County in 2024 (2,713 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Denton County population projected at +66% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $265,559 (15.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.86%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.56%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $357,672
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16620 Port Arthur Pl	0.00mi	5/3.0	2,129 (0%)	1mo	$313,990	$147	99
16628 Port Arthur Pl	0.02mi	5/2.5	2,236 (+5%)	1mo	$319,990	$143	88
16577 Port Arthur Pl	0.12mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,044 (-4%)	1mo	$346,990	$170	82
16561 Port Arthur Pl	0.16mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,044 (-4%)	1mo	$337,990	$165	80
16573 Hudson Prairie Way	0.17mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,038 (-4%)	0mo	$346,990	$170	76
16557 Port Arthur Pl	0.17mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,038 (-4%)	1mo	$339,990	$167	75
16524 Laguna Vista St	0.24mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,034 (-4%)	1mo	$349,990	$172	72
16624 Port Arthur Pl	0.01mi	5/2.0	1,812 (-15%)	1mo	$303,990	$168	70
16449 Hudson Prairie Way	0.34mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,025 (-5%)	0mo	$336,990	$166	66
16413 Hudson Prairie Way	0.42mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,038 (-4%)	1mo	$340,990	$167	63
16608 Laguna Vista St	0.20mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,827 (-14%)	0mo	$332,630	$182	58
16516 Laguna St	0.25mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,834 (-14%)	0mo	$331,990	$181	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.25×
• Total profit: $-65,857
• Equity at exit: $46,817

10-year hold

• IRR: -26.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.10×
• Total profit: $-96,505
• Equity at exit: $27,148

Cash invested: $87,917 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76247

• Home prices YoY: -13.3%
• Rents YoY: -0.5%
• Active inventory: 1503
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,656 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,647
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$392 /mo · $4,710/yr
• Insurance: −$131
• HOA: −$42
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$558
• Net cashflow: $-114

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,800

Max offer price $297,494

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $103	-5% $-6	+0% $-114	+5% $-222	+10% $-331
Rent	-10% $-324	-5% $-219	+0% $-114	+5% $-9	+10% $96
Rate	-1.0pp $44	-0.5pp $-34	base $-114	+0.5pp $-195	+1.0pp $-278

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $78,498
• Closing costs: $9,420
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16608 Port Arthur Pl Northlake, TX	5.0	3.0	2339	$2,600	$1.11	11d	1	0.01mi
16616 Port Arthur Pl Northlake, TX	4.0	2.0	1659	$2,395	$1.44	3d	1	0.02mi
229 Cal Ford Dr Northlake, TX	4.0	2.0	1648	$2,250	$1.37	0d	1	0.41mi
233 Cal Ford Dr Northlake, TX	5.0	2.0	1883	$2,340	$1.24	44d	1	0.41mi
708 Basteen Ln Justin, TX	4.0	2.0	1728	$2,300	$1.33	12d	1	0.65mi
804 Loomis Trl Justin, TX	4.0	2.0	1875	$2,285	$1.22	0d	1	0.66mi
829 Loomis Trl Justin, TX	4.0	2.0	2091	$2,450	$1.17	44d	1	0.68mi
16428 Milwaukee St Justin, TX	4.0	2.0	1738	$2,500	$1.44	44d	1	0.73mi
16537 Milwaukee St Justin, TX	4.0	2.0	1653	$2,249	$1.36	0d	1	0.79mi
16729 Milwaukee St Justin, TX	4.0	2.0	1836	$2,325	$1.27	4d	1	0.91mi
16721 Porterfield Ln Justin, TX	5.0	3.0	2770	$2,800	$1.01	44d	1	0.95mi
820 Forestdale Ct Haslet, TX	4.0	2.5	2766	$2,700	$0.98	44d	1	1.15mi
16020 Rein Ave Haslet, TX	4.0	3.0	2358	$2,355	$1.00	13d	1	1.29mi
845 Ranchland Rd Justin, TX	4.0	3.0	2673	$3,400	$1.27	25d	1	1.37mi
1020 Valerian Dr Haslet, TX	4.0	3.0	2144	$2,325	$1.08	44d	1	1.40mi
1045 Knightly Ln Haslet, TX	4.0	3.0	2388	$2,500	$1.05	44d	1	1.43mi
1201 Viscount St Haslet, TX	4.0	3.0	1941	$2,700	$1.39	13d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $42 · $504/yr

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-03-11
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-07
   listed $313,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,867
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,588
• − Property taxes: −$4,710
• − Insurance: −$1,570
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,549
• − Management: −$2,549
• − HOA: −$504
• − Depreciation: −$9,134
• Taxable loss: −$6,738
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,617
• After-tax cash flow: $249/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This home is in good condition with a well-maintained exterior and interior. A fresh coat of paint and some landscaping improvements would significantly enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and resale value
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and rental value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and resale value ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and rental value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Northwest ISD
• NCES district ID: 4833180
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $85,315
• Composite: 46.15/100
• National rank: #2504
• State rank: #120 of 826 in TX

Livability — New Fairview

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #901
• US rank: #16172

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Denton County · 901,654 people
• City population: 10,200
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 21,726
• Household income: $124,383
• Rent vs Own: 16.4% rent · 83.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 91.0

Population outlook (Denton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,053,010 people
• By 2030: 1,192,269 · +13.2%
• By 2040: 1,472,920 · +39.9%
• By 2050: 1,746,506 · +65.9%
• By 2075: 2,358,497 · +124.0%
• By 2100: 2,779,183 · +163.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 13% Black 3% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Romanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Denton

• 2024 margin: R (+13.2) · D 42.7% · R 55.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.0pp toward D · 2008: -24.2pp · 2024: -13.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.2 2020: R+8.1 2016: R+20.2 2012: R+31.7 2008: R+24.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -42.16%
• Current HPI: 274.368
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.46%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-11 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-03-07 Listed $313,990 NTREIS