293B Malvern Ct · Leisure Village, NJ 08701

$199,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,374 sqft · Condo public records · 38 Days on market

Built 1968 Average condition $427/mo HOA · 19% of rent ↓ 5% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.4/10.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to your perfect adult community living, scenic lake views right from your living room and Florida room, clubhouse provides many amenities, social activities and events. Ideal for those seeking a low maintenance lifestyle, 2 bedrooms 2 full baths, 8x17 Florida room/sun porch, garage, located on a cul-de-sac, Affordably priced to sell.

Key facts

• Scenic lake views
• Cul-de-sac
• 1,306 sq ft lot

Tags

• SCENIC LAKE VIEWS
• CLUBHOUSE PROVIDES AMENITIES
• LOW MAINTENANCE LIFESTYLE
• CUL-DE-SAC

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $200k. Condition is rated average.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $28 ($334/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $200k).
• Recommended offer: $194k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#416 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime B+, cost of living B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Lakewood Township School District (suburban): math 17% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #417 of 472 in NJ (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 82% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Oak Street Elem School (math 17% / reading 21%, grade F, #1,030 of 1,303 statewide, top 80%, 534 students, 97% FRL); Lakewood Middle School (math 16% / reading 30%, grade F, #376 of 431 statewide, top 88%, 995 students, 94% FRL); Lakewood High School (math 14% / reading 37%, grade F, #321 of 399 statewide, top 81%, 1,423 students, 86% FRL).
• Market conditions: 426 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($65k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($194k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 68% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $193,903 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
9. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
10. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
11. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
12. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
13. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.60%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-30,344
• Equity at exit: $29,806

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.59×
• Total profit: $-23,014
• Equity at exit: $17,284

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08701

• Active inventory: 426
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,285 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax from tax record: −$219 /mo · $2,626/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$427
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$480
• Net cashflow: $28

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,250

Max offer price $199,900

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $141	-5% $84	+0% $28	+5% $-29	+10% $-85
Rent	-10% $-153	-5% $-62	+0% $28	+5% $118	+10% $208
Rate	-1.0pp $128	-0.5pp $79	base $28	+0.5pp $-24	+1.0pp $-77

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
341B Canterbury Ct Lakewood, NJ	2.0	1.0	982	$2,275	$2.32	23d	1	0.10mi
335A Canterbury Ct Lakewood, NJ	2.0	1.0	982	$1,950	$1.99	20d	1	0.11mi
1305 Marshall St Lakewood, NJ	3.0	1.0	1168	$2,900	$2.48	9d	1	0.21mi
278C Kingston Ct Lakewood, NJ	2.0	1.0	1000	$2,250	$2.25	3d	1	0.77mi
1042C Aberdeen Dr Unit C Lakewood, NJ	2.0	1.0	982	$2,000	$2.04	5d	1	0.90mi
19 Silverside Rd Lakewood, NJ	2.0	2.0	1512	$2,600	$1.72	26d	1	0.91mi
824A Balmoral Ct Unit A Toms River, NJ	2.0	1.0	982	$2,200	$2.24	20d	1	1.05mi
523 Sophee Ln #1000 Lakewood, NJ	1.0	1.0	889	$1,800	$2.02	0d	1	1.22mi
540 Davids Ct Lakewood, NJ	2.0	1.5	1512	$2,350	$1.55	26d	1	1.26mi
610 Sophee Ln Lakewood, NJ	2.0	1.5	1164	$2,000	$1.72	45d	1	1.27mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $427 · $5,124/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $199,900 Active 38 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,900 Active 35 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,900 Active 34 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,900 Active 33 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,900 Active 32 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,900 Active 30 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $199,900 Active 29 DOM
8. 2026-04-19
   status Pending
9. 2026-04-13
   price $199,900
10. 2026-03-23
    listed $209,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,626 · $219/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,802 · $317/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,176/yr (+$98/mo · 44.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 68% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,421
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$2,626
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,194
• − Management: −$2,194
• − HOA: −$5,124
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable loss: −$2,728
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$655
• After-tax cash flow: $989/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Average 55/100 Cosmetic rehab

This home is in average condition with cosmetic updates needed to enhance its curb appeal and interior aesthetics.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Paint — Paint appears faded in some areas
• Minor Ceiling fan — Ceiling fan is dusty
• Minor Chandelier — Chandelier is dusty

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior and interior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Replace ceiling fan and chandelier — Clean and updated fixtures improve home's appeal
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both Replace carpet with hardwood — Hardwood floors are more durable and aesthetically pleasing

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Paint · Paint appears faded in some areas	Minor	$500–3,000
Ceiling fan · Ceiling fan is dusty	Minor	$500–3,000
Chandelier · Chandelier is dusty	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$1,500–9,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior and interior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Replace ceiling fan and chandelier — Clean and updated fixtures improve home's appeal ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both Replace carpet with hardwood — Hardwood floors are more durable and aesthetically pleasing ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lakewood Township School District
• NCES district ID: 3408220
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $42,301
• Composite: 19.21/100
• National rank: #8813
• State rank: #417 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Leisure Village

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #416
• US rank: #14624

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime B+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Leisure Village, NJ
• County: Ocean County · 439,426 people
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 139,149
• Household income: $64,959
• Rent vs Own: 48.5% rent · 51.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 5757.0

Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 5% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 2% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Italian 5% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 9% German/W. Germanic 7% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -682.83%
• Current HPI: 465.344
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

-4.8% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-19 Pending — MOMLS
• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $199,900 MOMLS
• 2026-03-23 Listed $209,900 MOMLS

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,626 · +4.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.