309 Adams Ave · Ogdensburg, NY 13669

$34,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 865 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 122 Days on market

Built 1878 1,333 sqft lot $40/sqft · 53% below area ↓ 12% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.5/10.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

What a find a cozy home with up to 4 bedrooms. This sweet home has a large eat in kitchen, open living room/ entry with a downstairs bathroom and bedroom. The second floor has three more bedrooms with a large open multipurpose room at the top of the stairs. The first-floor bath has a stand-up shower tile the second-floor full bath has a tub and handheld shower wand. There is a metal roof and a circuit breaker electrical entrance. A petite backyard with a small storage shed Rounds out the exterior. All appliances are included.

Key facts

• Large eat in kitchen
• Open living room
• Metal roof

Tags

• LARGE EAT IN KITCHEN
• OPEN LIVING ROOM
• DOWNSTAIRS BATHROOM
• MULTIPURPOSE ROOM
• STAND UP SHOWER
• METAL ROOF

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $35k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $452 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($969 rent vs $35k).
• Recommended offer: $31k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 21.8% vs local median 5.3% in Ogdensburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#624 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, schools D-, crime F.
• Ogdensburg City School District (town): math 34% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #531 of 590 in NY (top 90%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 127 active listings in the ZIP; 215 units permitted in St. Lawrence County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $613 of equity ($241 loan paydown + $372 appreciation (1.1% local appreciation)).
• St. Lawrence County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (1.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $10k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 122 days — a 12% lower offer ($31k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.0% of price; built in 1878 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $30,712 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 122 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1878 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.78% ✓
• Cap rate: 21.85%
• Cash-on-cash: 55.54%
• DSCR: 3.47
• GRM: 3.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $73,934
• List price: $34,900
• Delta: -52.80%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 9 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
321 Jefferson Ave	0.09mi	3/1.0	935 (+8%)	2mo	$95,000	$102	81
424 Rensselaer Ave	0.10mi	2/1.0 (-1)	936 (+8%)	6mo	$75,000	$80	71
312 Madison Ave	0.17mi	2/1.0 (-1)	900 (+4%)	13mo	$83,900	$93	69
706 Ford Ave	0.42mi	2/1.0 (-1)	952 (+10%)	5mo	$76,000	$80	55
920 Ogden St	0.26mi	2/1.0 (-1)	974 (+13%)	13mo	$23,500	$24	51
320 Oak St	0.39mi	2/1.0 (-1)	787 (-9%)	23mo	$27,000	$34	43
1022 Mechanic St	0.73mi	2/1.5 (-1)	825 (-5%)	17mo	$37,500	$45	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.07% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 58.4%
• Equity multiple: 4.03×
• Total profit: $29,635
• Equity at exit: $12,037

10-year hold

• IRR: 59.8%
• Equity multiple: 8.15×
• Total profit: $69,837
• Equity at exit: $16,090

Cash invested: $9,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13669

• Home prices YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 127
• Price-to-rent: 3.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $969 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$183
• Tax from tax record: −$116 /mo · $1,391/yr
• Insurance: −$15
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$204
• Net cashflow: $452

Break-even live

Break-even rent $397

Max offer price $34,900

Occupancy floor 48%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $8,725
• Closing costs: $1,047
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-03-18
   price $34,900 531-char remark

   Show marketing remark (531 chars)

   What a find a cozy home with up to 4 bedrooms. This sweet home has a large eat in kitchen, open living room/ entry with a downstairs bathroom and bedroom. The second floor has three more bedrooms with a large open multipurpose room at the top of the stairs. The first-floor bath has a stand-up shower tile the second-floor full bath has a tub and handheld shower wand. There is a metal roof and a circuit breaker electrical entrance. A petite backyard with a small storage shed Rounds out the exterior. All appliances are included.

2. 2026-01-19
   listed $39,500 Active 531-char remark

   Show marketing remark (531 chars)

   What a find a cozy home with up to 4 bedrooms. This sweet home has a large eat in kitchen, open living room/ entry with a downstairs bathroom and bedroom. The second floor has three more bedrooms with a large open multipurpose room at the top of the stairs. The first-floor bath has a stand-up shower tile the second-floor full bath has a tub and handheld shower wand. There is a metal roof and a circuit breaker electrical entrance. A petite backyard with a small storage shed Rounds out the exterior. All appliances are included.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,391 · $116/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,391 · $116/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,633
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,955
• − Property taxes: −$1,391
• − Insurance: −$174
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$931
• − Management: −$931
• − Depreciation: −$1,015
• Taxable income: $5,235
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,257
• After-tax cash flow: $4,171/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ogdensburg City School District
• NCES district ID: 3621660
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $38,253
• Composite: 33.33/100
• National rank: #5497
• State rank: #531 of 590 in NY

Livability — Ogdensburg

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #624
• US rank: #11365

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ogdensburg, NY
• Population (ZIP): 15,615

Population outlook (St. Lawrence County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 110,027 people
• By 2030: 107,455 · -2.3%
• By 2040: 100,492 · -8.7%
• By 2050: 94,254 · -14.3%
• By 2075: 80,175 · -27.1%
• By 2100: 63,140 · -42.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Black 4% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 10% Polish 6% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · German/W. Germanic 9% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Lawrence

• 2024 margin: R (+18.0) · D 41.0% · R 59.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -34.3pp toward R · 2008: 16.3pp · 2024: -18.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.0 2020: R+11.7 2016: R+10.8 2012: D+16.6 2008: D+16.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.07%
• Current HPI: 264.0261
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-11.6% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-18 Price Changed $34,900 SLCMLS
• 2026-01-19 Listed $39,500 SLCMLS

Property tax history

+126.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,391 · +0.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.