0 State Rd · St. Regis Falls, NY 12966

$99,000

1 bd · 0.5 ba · 892 sqft · SingleFamily · 4 Days on market

Built 2010 Fair condition 25 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.3/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0

Listing remarks

Tucked away at the end of a dead-end road, this off-grid camp offers peace, privacy, and direct access to the outdoors. Situated on 25 acres and bordering Deer River State Forest, the property provides immediate access to over 2,000 acres of state land right from your doorstep. Overlooking a scenic pond, the cabin features an open-concept layout with 1 bedroom plus a loft for additional sleeping space. A wood stove provides heat, while solar power offers modern comfort in a secluded setting. The property also includes a dug well and septic system already in place. The land features a beautiful mix of hardwoods including cherry, maple, and birch, adding to the property's natural beauty and r

Key facts

• Wood stove
• Solar power
• Access to state land

Tags

• DIRECT ACCESS TO OUTDOORS
• ACCESS TO STATE LAND
• OVERLOOKING A SCENIC POND
• OPEN CONCEPT LAYOUT
• WOOD STOVE
• SOLAR POWER

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Pets allowed: contact listing agent; Some equipment negotiable
• Financial info: No investor or income/expense details provided

Exterior

• Parking: No parking details provided
• Security: Security details: see remarks
• Utilities: Well water (private); Water connected / water available; Septic tank; Propane; Sewer connected
• Home design: Cabin; One story; Residential single-family home
• Construction: Wood siding; Metal roof; Slab foundation; Built on a single level
• Exterior features: Storage; Front porch, rear porch and screened porch; Other outbuilding/structure on site; Property has a view

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas oven
• Bedrooms: Total of 4 rooms (includes bedrooms and living areas)
• Flooring: Concrete
• Bathrooms: 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Wood heating; Wood stove; No cooling
• Interior features: High ceilings; Concrete flooring
• Laundry & utility: No laundry features listed

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/0.5-bath single-family listed at $99k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $0 ($-2/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $99k (0.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $87k (12.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $87k (12.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 3.7% in St. Regis Falls — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Brushton-Moira Central School District (rural): math 38% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #503 of 590 in NY (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 23 active listings in the ZIP; 124 units permitted in Franklin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $11k of equity ($684 loan paydown + $10k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Franklin County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $86,583 (12.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.29%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.01%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.95×
• Total profit: $53,921
• Equity at exit: $89,187

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.5%
• Equity multiple: 6.73×
• Total profit: $158,822
• Equity at exit: $192,335

Cash invested: $27,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12966

• Home prices YoY: 3.6%
• Active inventory: 23
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $866 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$519
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$124 /mo · $1,485/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$182
• Net cashflow: $-0

Break-even live

Break-even rent $866

Max offer price $98,977

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $68	-5% $34	+0% $0	+5% $-34	+10% $-69
Rent	-10% $-69	-5% $-34	+0% $0	+5% $34	+10% $68
Rate	-1.0pp $50	-0.5pp $25	base $0	+0.5pp $-26	+1.0pp $-52

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,750
• Closing costs: $2,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-12
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-09
   listed $99,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,390
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,546
• − Property taxes: −$1,485
• − Insurance: −$495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$831
• − Management: −$831
• − Depreciation: −$2,880
• Taxable loss: −$1,678
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$403
• After-tax cash flow: $401/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This property requires extensive repairs and maintenance, including a new roof, exterior siding, and HVAC system. The home's condition is fair, and significant improvements would be needed to increase its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Major roof — The roof appears to be in poor condition, with visible wear and tear.
• Major exterior siding — The siding is peeling and the paint is chipping.
• Major flooring — The flooring in the interior appears to be worn and in need of replacement.
• Major interior walls/paint — The interior walls and paint show signs of wear and tear.
• Major HVAC system — The HVAC system appears to be old and may need replacement.
• Major foundation/structure — The foundation and structure show signs of settling and potential structural issues.
• Major windows — The windows appear to be old and may need replacement.

Value-add opportunities

• Both New roof — A new roof would significantly improve the home's appearance and increase its value.
• Both New exterior siding and paint — New siding and paint would improve the home's curb appeal and increase its value.
• Both New flooring — New flooring would improve the home's interior and increase its value.
• Both New interior walls and paint — New walls and paint would improve the home's interior and increase its value.
• Both New HVAC system — A new HVAC system would improve the home's comfort and increase its value.
• Both Foundation repair — Foundation repair would improve the home's structural integrity and increase its value.
• Both New windows — New windows would improve the home's energy efficiency and increase its value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
roof · The roof appears to be in poor condition, with visible wear and tear.	Major	$15,000–50,000
exterior siding · The siding is peeling and the paint is chipping.	Major	$15,000–50,000
flooring · The flooring in the interior appears to be worn and in need of replacement.	Major	$15,000–50,000
interior walls/paint · The interior walls and paint show signs of wear and tear.	Major	$15,000–50,000
HVAC system · The HVAC system appears to be old and may need replacement.	Major	$15,000–50,000
foundation/structure · The foundation and structure show signs of settling and potential structural issues.	Major	$15,000–50,000
windows · The windows appear to be old and may need replacement.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 7 items		$105,000–350,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both New roof — A new roof would significantly improve the home's appearance and increase its value. ↑
• Both New exterior siding and paint — New siding and paint would improve the home's curb appeal and increase its value. ↑
• Both New flooring — New flooring would improve the home's interior and increase its value. ↑
• Both New interior walls and paint — New walls and paint would improve the home's interior and increase its value. ↑
• Both New HVAC system — A new HVAC system would improve the home's comfort and increase its value. ↑
• Both Foundation repair — Foundation repair would improve the home's structural integrity and increase its value. ↑
• Both New windows — New windows would improve the home's energy efficiency and increase its value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brushton-Moira Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3605820
• Math proficiency: 38% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▲ 15.00%
• Median HH income: $40,096
• Composite: 35.18/100
• National rank: #5000
• State rank: #503 of 590 in NY

Livability — St. Regis Falls

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,962

Population outlook (Franklin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 48,098 people
• By 2030: 46,790 · -2.7%
• By 2040: 44,400 · -7.7%
• By 2050: 41,256 · -14.2%
• By 2075: 32,190 · -33.1%
• By 2100: 23,407 · -51.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Hispanic / Latino 3% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 16% Iranian 5% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · German/W. Germanic 10% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Franklin

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+9.0) · D 45.5% · R 54.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -31.2pp toward R · 2008: 22.2pp · 2024: -9.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+9.0 2020: R+2.2 2016: R+7.4 2012: D+26.3 2008: D+22.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 10.47%
• Current HPI: 297.6735
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Pending — ACVMLS
• 2026-05-09 Listed $99,000 ACVMLS