3803 Milbrad St · Houston, TX 77026

$170,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,288 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 57 Days on market

Built 1954 0.36 ac lot $132/sqft · 12% below area Est $192k · 12% under ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.7/15.0
• Cash flow +12.2/30.0
• Appreciation +6.9/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Key facts

• 0.36 acre lot
• Built 1954
• Listed 56 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-461 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $92k (45.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $166k (2.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $92k (45.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 445 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 71% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,662/mo this rent would consume 51% of the median local household income ($39k/yr) (locally 1531% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $7k appreciation (3.9% local appreciation)).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 57 days — a 3% lower offer ($165k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price; flood insurance adds $427/mo; built in 1954 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $92,458 (45.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 57 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 46% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1954 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
5. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.05%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.88%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $192,405
• List price: $170,000
• Delta: -11.64%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3918 Falls St	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,330 (+3%)	12mo	$229,999	$173	76
4305 Engleford St	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,406 (+9%)	2mo	$159,900	$114	68
3443 Sayers St	0.09mi	3/1.0	1,147 (-11%)	14mo	$129,900	$113	66
4034 Wylie St	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,246 (-3%)	6mo	$194,000	$156	66
3706 Lucille St	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,231 (-4%)	7mo	$249,900	$203	64
4010 Wayne St	0.34mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,193 (-7%)	4mo	$150,000	$126	60
2405 Pannell St	0.72mi	3/1.5	1,230 (-4%)	3mo	$99,500	$81	54
2810 Schweikhardt St	0.61mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,332 (+3%)	13mo	$145,000	$109	50
3418 Memel St	0.58mi	3/1.0	1,096 (-15%)	0mo	$199,159	$182	48
3311 Collingsworth St	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,468 (+14%)	12mo	$130,000	$89	48
3106 Josephine St	0.59mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,200 (-7%)	13mo	$199,000	$166	41
4214 Quitman St	0.75mi	3/2.0	1,128 (-12%)	0mo	$174,999	$155	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.89% appreciation · 3.08% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.00×
• Total profit: $-206
• Equity at exit: $85,129

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.66×
• Total profit: $31,477
• Equity at exit: $138,394

Cash invested: $47,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77026

• Home prices YoY: 1.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 445
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,662 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax from tax record: −$385 /mo · $4,623/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$349
• Net cashflow: $-461

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,246

Max offer price $92,458

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-365	-5% $-413	+0% $-461	+5% $-509	+10% $-558
Rent	-10% $-593	-5% $-527	+0% $-461	+5% $-396	+10% $-330
Rate	-1.0pp $-376	-0.5pp $-418	base $-461	+0.5pp $-505	+1.0pp $-550

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,500
• Closing costs: $5,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 21 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4509 Courtney St Houston, TX	4.0	1.0	1456	$1,150	$0.79	22d	1	0.58mi
3503 Wyrick St Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1746	$2,850	$1.63	44d	1	0.65mi
4711 Sayers St Unit A Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	1200	$1,650	$1.38	44d	1	0.66mi
2704 Sam Wilson St Unit 1391353P Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1001	$2,082	$2.08	0d	1	1.08mi
3910 Woolworth St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1150	$1,750	$1.52	44d	1	1.13mi
4712 Rawley St Unit a Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1501	$2,070	$1.38	21d	1	1.14mi
4712 Rawley St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1501	$2,045	$1.36	21d	1	1.14mi
5414 Pardee St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,500	$1.36	44d	1	1.15mi
3802 Dabney St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	910	$875	$0.96	3d	1	1.21mi
3802 Dabney St Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0	825	$990	$1.20	44d	2	1.21mi
5435 Pardee St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	1634	$1,000	$0.61	44d	1	1.23mi
4300 Lyons Ave Unit 304 Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1393	$1,460	$1.05	44d	1	1.26mi
3730 Lyons Ave Unit 216 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1107	$1,300	$1.17	44d	1	1.27mi
2516 Ivy St Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,500	$1.25	44d	1	1.30mi
5605 Mulvey St Unit 1019610P Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1410	$4,931	$3.50	0d	1	1.32mi
2105 Sam Wilson St Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1416	$6,750	$4.77	44d	1	1.33mi
3300 Lyons Ave Unit 304 Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1393	$1,460	$1.05	44d	1	1.35mi
1513 Cage St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1467	$1,550	$1.06	44d	1	1.36mi
5124 Gold St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1650	$1,895	$1.15	44d	1	1.39mi
4030 Reid St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1680	$2,000	$1.19	44d	1	1.44mi
1524 Evelyn St Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1804	$2,800	$1.55	44d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $170,000 Active 57 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $170,000 Active 56 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $170,000 Active 55 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $170,000 Active 54 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $170,000 Active 52 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $170,000 Active 48 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $170,000 Active 47 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $170,000 Active 46 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $170,000 Active 43 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $170,000 Active 40 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $170,000 Active 39 DOM
12. 2026-04-30
    price $170,000
13. 2026-04-30
    price $175,000
14. 2026-04-22
    listed $180,000 Active
15. 2026-04-22
    historical
16. 2026-02-19
    listed $199,999 Active
17. 2024-08-27
    soldstatus
18. 2024-08-26
    soldstatus
19. 2024-08-21
    soldstatus Sold
20. 2024-08-06
    status Pending, Continue to Show
21. 2024-07-31
    status Active
22. 2024-07-31
    status Pending, Continue to Show
23. 2024-07-22
    listed $175,000 Active
24. 2024-07-21
    historical $175,000
25. 1988-12-25
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,623 · $385/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,623 · $385/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone AE · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,941
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,523
• − Property taxes: −$4,623
• − Insurance: −$5,968
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,595
• − Management: −$1,595
• − Depreciation: −$4,945
• Taxable loss: −$8,309
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,994
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,542/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 21,981
• Household income: $39,211
• Rent vs Own: 56.3% rent · 43.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1531.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 49% Hispanic / Latino 44% Two or more races 18% White 5% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 34%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada
• Languages at home: 61% English-only · Spanish 39%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.89%
• Current HPI: 267.5995
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.08%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-2.9% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $170,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $175,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-22 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-04-22 Listed $180,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-19 Listed $199,999 HARMLS
• 2024-08-27 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2024-08-26 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2024-08-21 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2024-08-06 Pending — HARMLS
• 2024-07-31 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2024-07-31 Pending — HARMLS
• 2024-07-22 Listed $175,000 HARMLS
• 2024-07-21 Coming Soon $175,000 HARMLS
• 1988-12-25 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+8.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,623 · +11.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.