109 Red Tail Cir · Byron, GA 31008

$239,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,479 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 33 Days on market

Built 2022 7,405 sqft lot Est $244k · at est. $29/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.9/30.0
• ARV discount +8.3/15.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Charming Custom Home Built in 2022 - Priced to Sell! Welcome to your dream home! This stunning 3-bedroom, 2-bath residence, featuring a bonus office area, offers 1,479 square feet of custom-designed living space, tailored for comfort and convenience. Key Features: Modern Design: Built in 2022, this home boasts contemporary finishes and an open floor plan that maximizes space and natural light. Fully Equipped: All appliances are included, making your move-in seamless and hassle-free. Versatile Office Space: Enjoy the added bonus of a dedicated office area, perfect for remote work or study. Prime Location: Situated near shopping and essential conveniences, with easy access to the interstate j

Key facts

• Modern design
• Custom home
• Fully equipped

Tags

• CUSTOM HOME
• BONUS OFFICE AREA
• MODERN DESIGN
• FULLY EQUIPPED
• VERSATILE OFFICE SPACE
• PRIME LOCATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $240k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-16 ($-194/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $237k (1.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $200k (16.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $200k (16.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 4.0% in Byron — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#137 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Peach County (rural): math 17% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #141 of 174 in GA (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Kay Road Elementary (math 26% / reading 30%, grade F, #673 of 1,228 statewide, top 55%, 529 students, 82% FRL); Fort Valley Middle School (math 11% / reading 19%, grade F, #397 of 470 statewide, top 85%, 481 students, 82% FRL); Peach County High School (math 3% / reading 22%, grade F, #334 of 424 statewide, top 79%, 1,107 students, 82% FRL) — zoned schools average 82% FRL vs 65% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 205 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 149 units permitted in Peach County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Peach County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 33 days — a 3% lower offer ($233k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $200,000 (16.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 33 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.21%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.29%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $244,035
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
120 Hawks Ridge Trce	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,484 (+0%)	6mo	$238,000	$160	90
171 Hawks Ridge Trce	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,484 (+0%)	2mo	$240,000	$162	89
127 Hawks Ridge Trce	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,509 (+2%)	7mo	$250,000	$166	85
199 Red Tail Cir	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,376 (-7%)	6mo	$244,995	$178	80
204 Brandon Way	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,492 (+1%)	3mo	$242,000	$162	79
202 Red Tail Cir	0.06mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,543 (+4%)	9mo	$255,000	$165	77
124 Hawks Ridge Trce	0.11mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,616 (+9%)	1mo	$253,900	$157	74
215 Red Tail Cir	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,330 (-10%)	8mo	$237,000	$178	72
117 Hawks Ridge Trce	0.12mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,616 (+9%)	6mo	$248,000	$153	69
105 Brooke Ct	0.27mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,615 (+9%)	0mo	$265,000	$164	67
129 Amanda Dr	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,451 (-2%)	3mo	$270,000	$186	65
115 Early Dr	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,700 (+15%)	4mo	$304,300	$179	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-39,912
• Equity at exit: $35,770

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-36,113
• Equity at exit: $20,742

Cash invested: $67,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31008

• Home prices YoY: -18.1%
• Active inventory: 205
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,258
• Tax from tax record: −$209 /mo · $2,510/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$29
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$420
• Net cashflow: $-16

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,020

Max offer price $237,042

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $120	-5% $52	+0% $-16	+5% $-84	+10% $-152
Rent	-10% $-174	-5% $-95	+0% $-16	+5% $63	+10% $142
Rate	-1.0pp $105	-0.5pp $45	base $-16	+0.5pp $-78	+1.0pp $-142

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,975
• Closing costs: $7,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
103 Hawks Ridge Trce Byron, GA	3.0	2.0	1725	$2,000	$1.16	44d	1	0.14mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $29 · $348/yr

Listing history 9 events

1. 2025-07-15
   status Pending
2. 2025-06-12
   listed $239,900 Active
3. 2025-06-06
   historical
4. 2025-05-16
   price $239,900
5. 2025-05-16
   price $239,900
6. 2025-04-28
   listed $249,900 Active
7. 2025-03-25
   listed $245,000 New
8. 2022-10-11
   soldstatus $238,260
9. 2022-05-02
   listed $238,260

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,510 · $209/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,510 · $209/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,438
• − Property taxes: −$2,510
• − Insurance: −$1,200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,920
• − Management: −$1,920
• − HOA: −$348
• − Depreciation: −$6,979
• Taxable loss: −$4,314
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,035
• After-tax cash flow: $841/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Peach County
• NCES district ID: 1304050
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $41,348
• Composite: 17.89/100
• National rank: #9000
• State rank: #141 of 174 in GA

Livability — Byron

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #137
• US rank: #9318

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Byron, GA
• Population (ZIP): 20,882

Population outlook (Peach County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 26,481 people
• By 2030: 25,723 · -2.9%
• By 2040: 23,812 · -10.1%
• By 2050: 21,724 · -18.0%
• By 2075: 17,513 · -33.9%
• By 2100: 14,235 · -46.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (61%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Black 27% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Peach

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+6.0) · D 46.8% · R 52.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.8pp toward R · 2008: 6.8pp · 2024: -6.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+6.0 2020: R+4.7 2016: R+3.0 2012: D+7.5 2008: D+6.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -45.93%
• Current HPI: 208.0889
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+0.7% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2025-07-15 Pending — CGMLS
• 2025-06-12 Listed $239,900 CGMLS
• 2025-06-06 Listing Removed — GAMLS
• 2025-05-16 Price Changed $239,900 GAMLS
• 2025-05-16 Price Changed $239,900 CGMLS
• 2025-04-28 Listed $249,900 CGMLS
• 2025-03-25 Listed $245,000 GAMLS
• 2022-10-11 Sold (MLS) $238,260 CGMLS
• 2022-05-02 Listed $238,260 CGMLS

Property tax history

+0.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,510 · -0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.