256 Victor Dr · Shields, MI 48609

$75,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,288 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1950 0.31 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great opportunity for the first time home buyer's or investors alike! This 2 bed 1 bath home is located in the Swan Valley School District and has plenty to offer! The Saginaw County Rail Trail is located right out the fenced back yard! Schools and all the great features Shields has to offer is within walking distance! Don't Miss your opportunity!

Key facts

• 0.31 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1950

Tags

• SWAN VALLEY SCHOOL DISTRICT
• SAGINAW COUNTY RAIL TRAIL
• WALKING DISTANCE TO SCHOOLS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association present

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage that faces the side (2-car)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; One level
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Lot approximately 80 x 169 (0.31 acre); No pool

Interior

• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Wall furnace; No central air conditioning
• Interior features: Seven total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $75k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $828 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $75k).
• Cap rate 19.5% vs local median 4.8% in Shields — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#59 in MI, #1,310 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Swan Valley School District (suburban): math 42% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #104 of 540 in MI (top 19%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Shields Elementary School (435 students, 40% FRL); Swan Valley Middle School (math 34% / reading 50%, grade D-, #186 of 493 statewide, top 39%, 386 students, 39% FRL); Swan Valley High School (math 32% / reading 57%, grade F, #214 of 713 statewide, top 36%, 536 students, 34% FRL).
• Market conditions: 71 active listings in the ZIP; 154 units permitted in Saginaw County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $519 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Saginaw County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $75,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.17% ✓
• Cap rate: 19.55%
• Cash-on-cash: 47.34%
• DSCR: 3.11
• GRM: 3.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $176,456
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
256 Victor Dr	0.00mi	2/1.0	1,288 (0%)	1mo	$75,000	$58	99
323 Sparling Dr	0.17mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,292 (+0%)	6mo	$144,900	$112	82
209 Sparling Dr	0.17mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,267 (-2%)	7mo	$159,900	$126	78
386 Victor Dr	0.06mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,208 (-6%)	12mo	$125,000	$103	72
171 Sparling Dr	0.17mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,203 (-7%)	12mo	$142,000	$118	66
748 S Miller Rd	0.33mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,254 (-3%)	10mo	$201,000	$160	65
716 Victor Dr	0.22mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,188 (-8%)	13mo	$201,000	$169	59
1081 S Miller Rd	0.51mi	2/1.5	1,352 (+5%)	10mo	$194,250	$144	57
178 Evelyn Dr	0.37mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,200 (-7%)	15mo	$164,000	$137	53
8191 Birch Rd	0.64mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,300 (+1%)	10mo	$200,000	$154	53
399 Sparling Dr	0.18mi	2/2.0	1,464 (+14%)	17mo	$198,000	$135	51
181 Evelyn St	0.34mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,128 (-12%)	16mo	$185,000	$164	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 44.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.93×
• Total profit: $40,598
• Equity at exit: $11,183

10-year hold

• IRR: 50.6%
• Equity multiple: 5.92×
• Total profit: $103,239
• Equity at exit: $6,485

Cash invested: $21,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48609

• Home prices YoY: -34.2%
• Active inventory: 71
• Price-to-rent: 3.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,626 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax from tax record: −$31 /mo · $376/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$341
• Net cashflow: $828

Break-even live

Break-even rent $577

Max offer price $75,000

Occupancy floor 44%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $871	-5% $850	+0% $828	+5% $807	+10% $786
Rent	-10% $700	-5% $764	+0% $828	+5% $893	+10% $957
Rate	-1.0pp $866	-0.5pp $848	base $828	+0.5pp $809	+1.0pp $789

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,750
• Closing costs: $2,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-05-14
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (349 chars)

   Great opportunity for the first time home buyer's or investors alike! This 2 bed 1 bath home is located in the Swan Valley School District and has plenty to offer! The Saginaw County Rail Trail is located right out the fenced back yard! Schools and all the great features Shields has to offer is within walking distance! Don't Miss your opportunity!

2. 2026-05-14
   status Pending 349-char remark

   Show marketing remark (349 chars)

   Great opportunity for the first time home buyer's or investors alike! This 2 bed 1 bath home is located in the Swan Valley School District and has plenty to offer! The Saginaw County Rail Trail is located right out the fenced back yard! Schools and all the great features Shields has to offer is within walking distance! Don't Miss your opportunity!

3. 2026-05-12
   price $75,000 349-char remark

   Show marketing remark (349 chars)

   Great opportunity for the first time home buyer's or investors alike! This 2 bed 1 bath home is located in the Swan Valley School District and has plenty to offer! The Saginaw County Rail Trail is located right out the fenced back yard! Schools and all the great features Shields has to offer is within walking distance! Don't Miss your opportunity!

4. 2026-05-12
   price $79,000 349-char remark

   Show marketing remark (349 chars)

   Great opportunity for the first time home buyer's or investors alike! This 2 bed 1 bath home is located in the Swan Valley School District and has plenty to offer! The Saginaw County Rail Trail is located right out the fenced back yard! Schools and all the great features Shields has to offer is within walking distance! Don't Miss your opportunity!

5. 2026-05-11
   price $75,000

   Show marketing remark (349 chars)

   Great opportunity for the first time home buyer's or investors alike! This 2 bed 1 bath home is located in the Swan Valley School District and has plenty to offer! The Saginaw County Rail Trail is located right out the fenced back yard! Schools and all the great features Shields has to offer is within walking distance! Don't Miss your opportunity!

6. 2026-05-11
   price $79,000

   Show marketing remark (349 chars)

   Great opportunity for the first time home buyer's or investors alike! This 2 bed 1 bath home is located in the Swan Valley School District and has plenty to offer! The Saginaw County Rail Trail is located right out the fenced back yard! Schools and all the great features Shields has to offer is within walking distance! Don't Miss your opportunity!

7. 2026-05-11
   listed $75,000 Active

   Show marketing remark (349 chars)

   Great opportunity for the first time home buyer's or investors alike! This 2 bed 1 bath home is located in the Swan Valley School District and has plenty to offer! The Saginaw County Rail Trail is located right out the fenced back yard! Schools and all the great features Shields has to offer is within walking distance! Don't Miss your opportunity!

8. 2026-05-11
   listed $75,000 Active 349-char remark

   Show marketing remark (349 chars)

   Great opportunity for the first time home buyer's or investors alike! This 2 bed 1 bath home is located in the Swan Valley School District and has plenty to offer! The Saginaw County Rail Trail is located right out the fenced back yard! Schools and all the great features Shields has to offer is within walking distance! Don't Miss your opportunity!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $376 · $31/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $765 · $64/mo
• Expected delta: +$390/yr (+$32/mo · 103.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,509
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,201
• − Property taxes: −$376
• − Insurance: −$375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,561
• − Management: −$1,561
• − Depreciation: −$2,182
• Taxable income: $9,254
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,221
• After-tax cash flow: $7,721/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Swan Valley School District
• NCES district ID: 2633410
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $54,994
• Composite: 42.38/100
• National rank: #3241
• State rank: #104 of 540 in MI

Livability — Shields

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #59
• US rank: #1310

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Shields, MI
• Population (ZIP): 12,206

Population outlook (Saginaw County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 180,568 people
• By 2030: 172,302 · -4.6%
• By 2040: 153,919 · -14.8%
• By 2050: 135,519 · -24.9%
• By 2075: 97,199 · -46.2%
• By 2100: 65,037 · -64.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 11% Lithuanian 5% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Other Indo-European 6% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Saginaw

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.0% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.6pp toward R · 2008: 17.3pp · 2024: -3.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.3 2020: D+0.3 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+11.9 2008: D+17.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -93.03%
• Current HPI: 179.2881
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2026-05-14 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $75,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $79,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $75,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $79,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-05-11 Listed $75,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-05-11 Listed $75,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS

Property tax history

-8.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $376 · -75.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.