417 Umatilla 417 · Fort Myers Beach, FL 33931

$127,995

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 624 sqft · Manufactured · 118 Days on market

Manufactured home Built 2026 Good condition $205/sqft · 37% below area Est $204k · 37% under · waterfront

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +11.0/30.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Appreciation +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Manufactured-home adj. -3.9

Listing remarks

This unique 1 bedroom 1 bath home is almost complete and will be move in ready very soon! 417 is a spacious 1/1 that boasts approx. 800 sq. ft. and really maximizes natural light and open floor plan. This home has LVP flooring, crown molding, tray ceiling, lots of built in storage, a metal roof and much more! This lake view home also has a huge front porch over looking one of our beautiful lakes on our property making it a perfect spot for relaxation and entertainment. Call today to schedule a tour of this brand new home, with exterior photos coming soon!

Key facts

• Built in storage
• Metal roof
• Tray ceiling

Tags

• LVP FLOORING
• CROWN MOLDING
• TRAY CEILING
• BUILT IN STORAGE
• METAL ROOF
• LAKE VIEW

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $128k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-53 ($-642/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $120k (6.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $105k (17.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $105k (17.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 0.2% in Fort Myers Beach — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#489 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Lee (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #42 of 73 in FL (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Heights Elementary School (math 74% / reading 67%, grade A-, #333 of 2,144 statewide, top 16%, 1,109 students, 38% FRL); Lexington Middle School (math 55% / reading 54%, grade B-, #183 of 571 statewide, top 34%, 1,138 students, 44% FRL); South Fort Myers High School (math 23% / reading 30%, grade F, #489 of 667 statewide, top 74%, 1,917 students, 50% FRL).
• Market conditions: 1137 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 15,411 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (4,686 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 16% of the median local income ($79k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $885 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lee County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 118 days — a 9% lower offer ($116k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $105,198 (17.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 118 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
8. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
9. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.79%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.79%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $203,944
• List price: $127,995
• Delta: -37.24%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
159 Adrienne Dr	0.71mi	2/1.0 (+1)	654 (+5%)	0mo	$135,000	$206	54
11630 Ariana Dr	0.60mi	2/1.5 (+1)	543 (-13%)	4mo	$140,000	$258	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-24,131
• Equity at exit: $19,084

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-25,334
• Equity at exit: $11,067

Cash invested: $35,839 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 17 active · 6 under contract
• Months of supply: 34.0 mo (3%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $154,995 ($221/sqft)
• Median days on market: 199 d
• This list price: 18% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +47.6% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 33931

• Home prices YoY: -18.8%
• Active inventory: 1137
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,052 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$671
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$160 /mo · $1,920/yr
• Insurance: −$53
• HOA: −$0
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$221
• Net cashflow: $-53

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,120

Max offer price $120,256

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $35	-5% $-9	+0% $-53	+5% $-98	+10% $-142
Rent	-10% $-137	-5% $-95	+0% $-53	+5% $-12	+10% $30
Rate	-1.0pp $11	-0.5pp $-21	base $-53	+0.5pp $-87	+1.0pp $-120

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,999
• Closing costs: $3,840
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11430 Kimble Dr Unit 11430 front Fort Myers, FL	2.0	1.0	700	$1,295	$1.85	144d	1	0.39mi
11430 Kimble Dr Unit 11432 front Fort Myers, FL	2.0	1.0	700	$1,300	$1.86	144d	1	0.39mi
11430 Kimble Dr Unit 11432 back Fort Myers, FL	1.0	1.0	650	$1,300	$2.00	24d	1	0.39mi
11430 Kimble Dr Unit 11432 Fort Myers, FL	1.0	1.0	650	$1,300	$2.00	10d	1	0.39mi
11410 Char Ann Dr Unit 2 Fort Myers, FL	1.0	1.0	700	$1,300	$1.86	10d	1	0.43mi
5500 Spectra Cir Fort Myers, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1003	$1,409	$1.40	0d	45	0.92mi
16120 Dublin Cir Unit B Fort Myers, FL	1.0	1.0	650	$1,350	$2.08	10d	1	0.99mi
16120 Dublin Cir Unit B Fort Myers, FL	1.0	1.0	650	$1,350	$2.08	16d	1	0.99mi
16120 Dublin Cir Fort Myers, FL	1.0	1.0	650	$1,500	$2.31	41d	1	1.00mi
11028 Sunlight Ln Fort Myers, FL	2.0	1.0	432	$975	$2.26	52d	1	1.07mi
15645 Ocean Walk Cir #206 Fort Myers, FL	1.0	1.0	623	$1,099	$1.76	13d	1	1.48mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $127,995

Exterior

• Home design: Spec single-unit propertyPlan name: 417 Umatilla
• Construction: Living area approximately 624Built in 2026 (new construction spec)
• Exterior features: Located in Fort Myers Beach

Interior

• Bedrooms: 1 bedroom
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Interior features: Open living space

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $127,995 Active 118 DOM
2. 2026-09-23
   days on market $127,995 Active 117 DOM
3. 2026-09-22
   days on market $127,995 Active 116 DOM
4. 2026-09-21
   days on market $127,995 Active 115 DOM
5. 2026-09-17
   days on market $127,995 Active 111 DOM
6. 2026-09-13
   days on market $127,995 Active 107 DOM
7. 2026-09-13
   days on market $127,995 Active 106 DOM
8. 2026-09-11
   days on market $127,995 Active 105 DOM
9. 2026-09-05
   days on market $127,995 Active 99 DOM
10. 2026-09-04
    days on market $127,995 Active 98 DOM
11. 2026-08-31
    days on market $127,995 Active 94 DOM
12. 2026-08-28
    days on market $127,995 Active 91 DOM
13. 2026-08-26
    days on market $127,995 Active 89 DOM
14. 2026-08-24
    days on market $127,995 Active 87 DOM
15. 2026-08-23
    days on market $127,995 Active 86 DOM
16. 2026-08-21
    days on market $127,995 Active 84 DOM
17. 2026-08-20
    days on market $127,995 Active 83 DOM
18. 2026-08-19
    days on market $127,995 Active 82 DOM
19. 2026-08-18
    days on market $127,995 Active 81 DOM
20. 2026-08-16
    days on market $127,995 Active 79 DOM
21. 2026-08-15
    days on market $127,995 Active 78 DOM
22. 2026-08-13
    days on market $127,995 Active 76 DOM
23. 2026-08-09
    days on market $127,995 Active 72 DOM
24. 2026-08-06
    days on market $127,995 Active 69 DOM
25. 2026-08-05
    days on market $127,995 Active 68 DOM
26. 2026-07-26
    days on market $127,995 Active 58 DOM
27. 2026-07-24
    days on market $127,995 Active 56 DOM
28. 2026-07-23
    days on market $127,995 Active 55 DOM
29. 2026-07-22
    days on market $127,995 Active 54 DOM
30. 2026-07-21
    days on market $127,995 Active 53 DOM
31. 2026-07-18
    days on market $127,995 Active 50 DOM
32. 2026-07-18
    days on market $127,995 Active 49 DOM
33. 2026-07-16
    days on market $127,995 Active 48 DOM
34. 2026-07-15
    days on market $127,995 Active 47 DOM
35. 2026-07-13
    days on market $127,995 Active 45 DOM
36. 2026-07-13
    days on market $127,995 Active 44 DOM
37. 2026-07-12
    days on market $127,995 Active 43 DOM
38. 2026-07-10
    days on market $127,995 Active 42 DOM
39. 2026-07-10
    days on market $127,995 Active 41 DOM
40. 2026-07-07
    days on market $127,995 Active 39 DOM
41. 2026-07-06
    days on market $127,995 Active 38 DOM
42. 2026-07-05
    days on market $127,995 Active 37 DOM
43. 2026-07-02
    days on market $127,995 Active 34 DOM
44. 2026-07-01
    days on market $127,995 Active 33 DOM
45. 2026-06-30
    days on market $127,995 Active 32 DOM
46. 2026-06-29
    days on market $127,995 Active 31 DOM
47. 2026-06-28
    days on market $127,995 Active 30 DOM
48. 2026-06-25
    days on market $127,995 Active 26 DOM
49. 2026-06-22
    days on market $127,995 Active 23 DOM
50. 2026-06-17
    days on market $127,995 Active 19 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,624
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,170
• − Property taxes: −$1,920
• − Insurance: −$640
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,010
• − Management: −$1,010
• − Depreciation: −$3,723
• Taxable loss: −$2,849
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$684
• After-tax cash flow: $42/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 10 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $3,120–$9,360 screening

This move-in-ready manufactured home boasts a spacious floor plan, modern finishes, and a large front porch overlooking a lake. With minor updates, it can significantly increase its value for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Updating the flooring — Replacing worn-out flooring can improve both resale and rental value ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modernizing the kitchen can attract more buyers and renters ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase the home's appeal and value ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhancing the landscaping can boost curb appeal and attract more buyers ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 44/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Colonial Elementary School F FL #1,744/2,144 Nat'l #24,299/41,679 Middle Paul Laurence Dunbar Middle School C+ FL #217/571 Nat'l #3,033/14,009 High Cypress Lake High School D- FL #228/667 Nat'l #6,809/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lee
• NCES district ID: 1201080
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,518
• Composite: 41.49/100
• National rank: #3458
• State rank: #42 of 73 in FL

C Composite livability gradescore 69/100

Livability — Fort Myers Beach

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #489
• US rank: #8995

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing B Health & safety D- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Lee County · 871,946 people
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• Population (ZIP): 8,350
• Household income: $79,018
• Rent vs Own: 10.7% rent · 89.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 5% of renters

---

Population outlook (Lee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 871,946 people
• By 2030: 955,468 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 1,113,587 · +27.7%
• By 2050: 1,256,891 · +44.1%
• By 2075: 1,560,270 · +78.9%
• By 2100: 1,726,848 · +98.0%

---

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 4%
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 2% German/W. Germanic 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

---

Political lean MEDSL · Lee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.4) · D 35.5% · R 63.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.0pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -28.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.4 2020: R+19.2 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+16.6 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -194.12%
• Current HPI: 837.37
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

---

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $127,995

Exterior

• Home design: Spec single-unit propertyPlan name: 417 Umatilla
• Construction: Living area approximately 624Built in 2026 (new construction spec)
• Exterior features: Located in Fort Myers Beach

Interior

• Bedrooms: 1 bedroom
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Interior features: Open living space