8 Lavender Ln · Cheektowaga, NY 14225

$65,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,088 sqft · Manufactured public records · 8 Days on market

Built 1999 $60/sqft · 37% above area Est $47k · 37% over $725/mo HOA · 40% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Home is located in The Sky Community, a 55-plus community. Any purchase of the home will be contingent on the buyer's approval into the park. Welcome Home to 8 Lavender Lane This beautifully maintained 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom home offers an exceptional blend of comfort, functionality, and natural light. Thoughtfully designed, the layout maximizes space while creating a warm and inviting atmosphere throughout. The primary bedroom features a spacious walk-in closet and a private en-suite full bathroom, providing a perfect retreat. The open-concept kitchen flows seamlessly into the living area, making it ideal for entertaining or relaxing with family and friends. This home is being offered fu

Key facts

• Shed
• Outdoor amenities
• Walk-in closet

Tags

• WALK-IN CLOSET
• PRIVATE EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• OPEN-CONCEPT KITCHEN
• FULLY FURNISHED
• OUTDOOR AMENITIES
• SHED

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Monthly association fee ($725); Senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Carport
• Utilities: Electricity connected (circuit breakers); Public water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Double-wide mobile home; Single-story; Existing construction; Pillar/post/pier foundation
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Built as existing (double wide, make: Castl)
• Exterior features: Blacktop driveway; Rectangular residential lot with 30 x 100 dimensions; City street frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas oven and gas range; Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: Two main-level bedrooms (one ~14 x 13, one ~12 x 9)
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Varies
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced-air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Skylights; Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Separate/formal living room; Furnished; Main level primary bedroom
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer on the main level; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $65k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $260 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $65k).
• Cap rate 11.1% vs local median 3.8% in Cheektowaga — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#54 in NY, #811 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-.
• Lancaster Central School District (suburban): math 57% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #234 of 590 in NY (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 14% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 208 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $449 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 40% of rent.

Recommended offer $65,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.79% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.08%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.11%
• DSCR: 1.76
• GRM: 3.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $47,373
• List price: $65,000
• Delta: 37.21%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1 Laurel Run	0.17mi	2/2.0	1,088 (0%)	8mo	$67,500	$62	82
38 Harmony Ln	0.21mi	2/2.0	980 (-10%)	5mo	$28,000	$29	66
26 Harmony Ln	0.22mi	2/1.0	1,152 (+6%)	18mo	$49,500	$43	65
21 Harmony Ln	0.26mi	2/1.0	924 (-15%)	11mo	$60,000	$65	54
82 Jenny Ln	0.33mi	2/1.0	980 (-10%)	22mo	$32,500	$33	50
69 Melody Ln	0.34mi	2/2.0	980 (-10%)	18mo	$45,000	$46	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.36×
• Total profit: $6,469
• Equity at exit: $9,692

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.58×
• Total profit: $28,836
• Equity at exit: $5,620

Cash invested: $18,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14225

• Home prices YoY: -27.3%
• Active inventory: 208
• Price-to-rent: 3.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,813 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$341
• Tax from tax record: −$80 /mo · $958/yr
• Insurance: −$27
• HOA: −$725
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$381
• Net cashflow: $260

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,485

Max offer price $65,000

Occupancy floor 81%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $296	-5% $278	+0% $260	+5% $241	+10% $223
Rent	-10% $116	-5% $188	+0% $260	+5% $331	+10% $403
Rate	-1.0pp $292	-0.5pp $276	base $260	+0.5pp $243	+1.0pp $226

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,250
• Closing costs: $1,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6386 Transit Rd Depew, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1023	$2,397	$2.34	3d	62	0.19mi
4925 Genesee St Cheektowaga, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0	680	$1,399	$2.06	20d	1	0.27mi
5841 Transit Rd Unit 3 Depew, NY	2.0	1.0	750	$1,335	$1.78	4d	1	1.31mi
3284 Walden Ave Depew, NY	1.0	1.0	750	$1,350	$1.80	45d	1	1.46mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $725 · $8,700/yr

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-06
   status Pending 1164-char remark
2. 2026-04-28
   listed $65,000 Active 1164-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $958 · $80/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,028 · $86/mo
• Expected delta: +$70/yr (+$6/mo · 7.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone B · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,756
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,641
• − Property taxes: −$958
• − Insurance: −$325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,741
• − Management: −$1,741
• − HOA: −$8,700
• − Depreciation: −$1,891
• Taxable income: $2,761
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$663
• After-tax cash flow: $2,452/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lancaster Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3616680
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $64,668
• Composite: 51.64/100
• National rank: #1700
• State rank: #234 of 590 in NY

Livability — Cheektowaga

• Score: 84/100
• State rank: #54
• US rank: #811

Category grades

Amenities B Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime C- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cheektowaga, NY
• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• City population: 55,470
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 33,620
• Household income: $67,237
• Rent vs Own: 27.1% rent · 72.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 991.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Black 13% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 21% Lithuanian 3% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Other Indo-European 2% Spanish 2% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -120.26%
• Current HPI: 320.6248
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2026-04-28 Listed $65,000 WNYREIS

Property tax history

+5.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $958 · +0.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.