170 Grouse Ct · New Haven, WI 53920

$459,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,144 sqft · Other · 23 Days on market

Built 2016 0.32 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +7.3/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Experience lake life at its finest with this fully furnished 3 bedroom, 2 bath property, built by Castle Homes, offering 68 feet of frontage on beautiful Lake Mason! Located just minutes from Wisconsin Dells, this property provides the perfect blend of peaceful waterfront living and convenient access to dining, shopping, and entertainment. Inside, you?ll find a warm and inviting layout flooded with natural light and designed for easy main floor living. The spacious kitchen offers abundant storage and a large island perfect for gathering and entertaining. The primary suite features a walk-in closet and private full bath, while two additional bedrooms, a second full bath, and a convenient foy

Key facts

• 0.32 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 2016

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot size approximately 0.32 acre; Included: all appliances, furnishings and personal property on site as of 6/1/26; boat hoist/lift, pier, paddle boat, and small fishing boat

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 1-car garage
• Utilities: Well water; Holding tank; Natural gas; Public power available
• Home design: Single-family home; One story; Residence zoned residential
• Construction: Finished above-grade area approximately 1,144; Finished below-grade area none; Basement: full with poured concrete, crawl space; Foundation includes poured concrete
• Exterior features: Deck; Vinyl siding; Waterfront on Mason Lake with dock/pier, boat ramp/lift and boat access; Water frontage on lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen island; Range/oven; Refrigerator; Dishwasher; Microwave; Freezer
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on main level (11 x 12); Second bedroom on main level (11 x 10); Third bedroom on main level (11 x 8)
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; Primary bathroom with walk-in shower and tub
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning; Natural gas heat
• Interior features: Walk-in closets; Cathedral/vaulted ceiling
• Laundry & utility: Sump pump

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $459k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-350 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $397k (13.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $322k (29.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $322k (29.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Wisconsin Dells School District (town): math 44% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #135 of 342 in WI (top 40%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Wisconsin Dells Middle School (math 42% / reading 44%, grade D-, #112 of 383 statewide, top 30%, 387 students, 54% FRL); Wisconsin Dells High (math 17% / reading 27%, grade F, #349 of 483 statewide, top 75%, 603 students, 48% FRL).
• Market conditions: 5 active listings in the ZIP; 126 units permitted in Adams County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $24k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $21k appreciation (4.6% local appreciation)).
• Adams County population projected at -33% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$39k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($452k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $322,149 (29.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.38%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.27%
• DSCR: 0.85
• GRM: 11.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.63% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.57×
• Total profit: $73,826
• Equity at exit: $249,957

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.92×
• Total profit: $247,020
• Equity at exit: $423,221

Cash invested: $128,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Wisconsin: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; preempted; Madison / Milwaukee have some local enforcement.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 53920

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Active inventory: 5
• Price-to-rent: 11.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,221 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,407
• Tax from tax record: −$297 /mo · $3,562/yr
• Insurance: −$191
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$677
• Net cashflow: $-350

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,665

Max offer price $397,143

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-90	-5% $-220	+0% $-350	+5% $-480	+10% $-610
Rent	-10% $-605	-5% $-477	+0% $-350	+5% $-223	+10% $-96
Rate	-1.0pp $-119	-0.5pp $-233	base $-350	+0.5pp $-469	+1.0pp $-590

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $114,750
• Closing costs: $13,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $459,000 Active 23 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $459,000 Active 21 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $459,000 Active 20 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $459,000 Active 19 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $459,000 Active 18 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $459,000 Active 17 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $459,000 Active 15 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $459,000 Active 14 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $459,000 Active 11 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $459,000 Active 10 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $459,000 Active 9 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $459,000 Active 6 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $459,000 Active 5 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $459,000 Active 4 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $459,000 Active 3 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $459,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,562 · $297/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,027 · $502/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,465/yr (+$205/mo · 69.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,658
• − Mortgage interest: −$25,711
• − Property taxes: −$3,562
• − Insurance: −$2,295
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,093
• − Management: −$3,093
• − Depreciation: −$13,353
• Taxable loss: −$12,448
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,988
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,214/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wisconsin Dells School District
• NCES district ID: 5517040
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $47,233
• Composite: 35.91/100
• National rank: #4810
• State rank: #135 of 342 in WI

Livability — New Haven

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 544

Population outlook (Adams County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 18,560 people
• By 2030: 17,523 · -5.6%
• By 2040: 14,888 · -19.8%
• By 2050: 12,359 · -33.4%
• By 2075: 8,662 · -53.3%
• By 2100: 6,000 · -67.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Two or more races 27% Hispanic / Latino 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 10% Romanian 6% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Arabic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Adams

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.8) · D 34.6% · R 60.4% · Other 5.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -44.2pp toward R · 2008: 18.3pp · 2024: -25.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.8 2020: R+25.7 2016: R+21.8 2012: D+8.7 2008: D+18.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.63%
• Current HPI: 198.7243
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.10%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	4	$23B
▸Industrial Technology	2	$36B
▸Insurance	1	$36B
▸Professional Services	1	$19B
▸Utilities	1	$9B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$3B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Listed $459,000 SCWMLS

Property tax history

+7.9%/yr

Latest (2024): $3,562 · +3.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.